General Market News

Wall Street firms including Blackstone, Blue Owl, and Brookfield are pitching data center investments to public and institutional investors as AI infrastructure bets, with Blackstone's BXDC REIT launching on NYSE in May 2026. However, the sector faces mounting risks including political backlash, with two-thirds of Americans opposing local data centers, construction delays, power constraints, and project moratoriums in multiple states. While the total addressable market is projected to exceed $1 trillion, investors face liquidity issues, concentration risks, and technological obsolescence concerns.

• Blackstone's BXDC REIT sold 87.5 million shares targeting stabilized data centers in mature markets like Northern Virginia and Dallas, though it has not yet deployed any capital; Blue Owl is reportedly considering a $6.5 billion public REIT rolling up existing assets from over 130 data centers across 32 markets representing $18 billion in assets
• Political opposition has intensified with moratoriums in Virginia, Georgia, and Texas, where Gov. Abbott ordered a pause despite calling the state the AI 'epicenter' a year earlier; Oracle's stock fell 4% after announcing payment delays on a Blue Owl-backed New Mexico project citing regulatory hurdles and local opposition
• Key risks include high capital intensity, dependence on limited major tech tenants, power availability constraints, liquidity limitations with 'post office' redemption models unsuited for retail investors, and refinancing risks during periods of rising rates; roughly 99% of Blackstone's REIT ownership remains institutional

The Nasdaq opened higher on Friday as oil prices retreated after President Trump ruled out attacking Iran before midterm elections, easing Middle East tensions. AI and chip stocks rebounded following Thursday's decline triggered by OpenAI revenue concerns, while telecom stocks plunged on news of SpaceX's spectrum acquisition, which threatens established wireless carriers.

• Oil prices fell over 1% after Trump eased Iran attack concerns, though Brent crude remained above $100/barrel and bond yields stayed near 24-year highs at 5.37%
• OpenAI's actual annualized revenue of $52 billion (vs. previously reported $68 billion) sparked AI stock volatility, with Nvidia recovering while concerns persist about AI infrastructure financing needs
• SpaceX's nationwide low-band spectrum deal via Starlink hammered telecom stocks: T-Mobile down 9%, AT&T down 7.7%, and Verizon down 6.3% on competitive pressure fears

U.S. stock markets opened higher on Friday morning, led by technology stocks as Treasury yields pulled back from multiyear highs. The S&P 500 rose 0.21% while the Nasdaq gained 0.27%, though concerns remain about elevated oil prices near $96 per barrel, an upcoming Fed statement at 2 p.m. ET, and the morning's consumer sentiment report.

• Treasury yields eased with the 10-year falling to 5.2% from 5.3% after a successful bond auction, providing relief particularly for growth stocks in the Nasdaq 100 which gained 0.7% premarket
• Oil prices remain elevated at $96 per barrel (down from $107 mid-September peak) following supply concerns and geopolitical tensions with Iran, keeping inflation pressures alive and limiting how far yields can fall
• Market leadership is narrow with the Nasdaq outperforming by 5% over the past month while the Dow has declined 3%, as mega-cap tech carries gains while rate-sensitive industrials, financials and small caps lag with the VIX calm at 15

Hurricane Isaias is disrupting U.S. crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, with companies shutting in about 1.3 million barrels per day (63% of Gulf production) as of Thursday. The Category 3 storm threatens refineries in Mississippi and Alabama that represent 2.4% of U.S. refining capacity, potentially worsening already tight global fuel markets.

• Oil companies shut in approximately 1.3 million barrels per day, or 63% of total U.S. Gulf of Mexico production, as the hurricane approaches
• Chevron's Pascagoula, Mississippi refinery and Vertex's Saraland, Alabama facility (combined 466,000 bpd capacity) are under hurricane warnings, with Gulf Coast refineries running at 95% capacity and no slack to compensate for disruptions
• Tanker traffic delays will affect crude oil deliveries to refineries and fuel shipments, particularly impacting Florida's gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel supplies amid already elevated diesel prices driven by conflicts in Europe and the Middle East

Tech stocks have remained resilient despite rising interest rates and AI concerns, but options traders are increasingly hedging for a pullback. The put-to-call ratio for QQQ reached 1.49 on Thursday, the highest since late June, indicating traders are loading up on protection. However, mixed signals emerged as some of the largest trades were actually bullish bets.

• QQQ's put-to-call ratio hit 1.49, the highest since June, with the ratio favoring puts since August despite tech stocks reaching all-time highs through Tuesday
• The Nasdaq 100 declined 1.8% Thursday following reports that OpenAI's revenues are falling short of expectations
• Largest option trades showed conflicting sentiment: a $20 million bearish bet (15,000 puts at 680-strike) in extended hours contrasted with $8 million bullish call purchases during regular trading

A SemiAnalysis report found that nine major Chinese AI developers publicly disclosed safety test results for only 3.6% of 857 model releases between 2021 and September 2024, with just 1.1% having results available at launch. The findings highlight limited transparency around AI safety testing as concerns grow globally about risks from advanced AI systems, particularly autonomous agents capable of cyber operations.

• SemiAnalysis reviewed releases from Alibaba, ByteDance, Tencent, Baidu, DeepSeek, Moonshot, Z.AI, MiniMax and StepFun, finding 813 releases had no published safety disclosures
• China's regulatory framework focuses on AI applications and user effects rather than mandatory capability-based risk assessments or dangerous-capability testing for frontier models
• No major Chinese developer has publicly disclosed dangerous-capability tests spanning cyber, biological and loss-of-control risks for frontier text models, according to the report

Kalshi prediction market traders now see a 75% probability that more than 5,100 AI data centers will be planned or operating in the U.S. before 2027, up from 60% two weeks ago. This rising confidence comes despite growing public opposition to data center construction due to concerns over increased energy costs and water consumption. Currently, over 4,700 data centers are already planned or operating across the country.

• Virginia leads all states with more than 670 planned and online data centers, followed by Texas with 537 and California with over 200 facilities
• Oracle recently sent a 'force majeure' notice for its New Mexico data center project to protect against cost overruns, after the state rejected gas pipeline applications needed to fuel the facility
• Communities and activists are increasingly opposing data center projects, arguing they raise local utility costs and consume significant water resources

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has appointed Judy Shelton, whose controversial views led the Senate to block her 2019 Federal Reserve nomination, as a counselor to advise on currency policy with focus on China. The appointment comes amid significant personnel turnover at Treasury, where seven Senate-confirmed officials have departed through August with only one position filled.

• Shelton's 2019 Fed nomination was rejected by bipartisan Senate opposition due to her views on Fed independence, support for the gold standard, and questioning whether the U.S. needs a central bank
• She will focus on evaluating financial conditions in China, though she is not known as a China expert; her background includes books on international monetary regimes and Soviet economics
• The counselor position does not require Senate confirmation, unlike the seven vacant Senate-confirmed Treasury positions following recent departures

US stock futures rebounded on Friday morning, with Nasdaq futures surging 220 points (0.72%) as tech stocks recovered from Thursday's sell-off. The rally was supported by easing oil prices after Trump stated the US would not attack Iran before November midterms, though elevated bond yields near 24-year highs remain a concern for growth stocks.

• Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.72% with Nvidia up 1.6% premarket as AI stocks recovered after clarification that OpenAI still targets a $70B+ revenue run-rate by year-end
• SpaceX's $8 billion spectrum purchase from Grain Management for Starlink mobile services sent telecom stocks (AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile) sharply lower in premarket trading
• The 10-year Treasury yield held near 5.25%, below Wednesday's peak of 5.364% but still close to a 24-year high, keeping pressure on expensive growth stock valuations

China has issued new guidelines for developing 'new productive forces' including AI and frontier technologies, emphasizing safety controls and accountability. The government will establish monitoring and emergency response systems to ensure AI remains safe, reliable, and controllable. Officials responsible for major losses from 'blind' investment in these technologies will face strict accountability.

• China will build technology monitoring, risk warning and emergency response systems specifically to ensure AI is safe, reliable and controllable
• Authorities will hold officials strictly accountable for major losses caused by 'blind' investment in AI and other frontier technologies
• The guidelines also promote development of the low-altitude economy including civilian drones, air taxis and small aircraft while ensuring safety

European bond markets experienced significant stress as French-German yield spreads hit their widest levels since 2012, driven by political instability and fiscal concerns. Oil prices remained volatile due to Middle East tensions and Gulf of Mexico hurricane disruptions, while U.S. Treasury yields reached 24-year highs. Equity markets initially resisted these pressures but showed signs of weakness late in the week amid concerns about sustaining immunity to rising yields.

• French 10-year debt spread over German Bunds exceeded 140 basis points amid political gridlock over budget plans to reduce the deficit from 5.4% to 5%, weakening the euro to a 17-month low of $1.1161
• U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit 5.364%, a 24-year high, while benchmark crude prices rose above $104/barrel on Strait of Hormuz tensions before easing on Trump's comments about delaying Iran action
• Major AI-related corporate borrowing emerged with Broadcom seeking $50 billion in financing and SpaceX planning $30 billion in debt issuance, raising concerns about a potential AI sector slowdown as Q3 earnings season begins

The USDA is expected to lower its estimate of corn fed to livestock in its Friday report after revealing September grain stocks were 35% higher year-over-year and 9% above analyst expectations. The surprise data suggests the agency overstated feed demand despite the US cattle herd being at a 75-year low, renewing concerns about USDA data reliability following recent controversies over crop estimates and farm debt reporting.

• USDA estimated 6.35 billion bushels of corn for feed/residual use in 2025/26, up from 5.44 billion in 2024/25, despite cattle herd at 75-year low making the projection appear inconsistent with market fundamentals
• Analysts expect USDA to raise its September 2026 corn stocks estimate by 7% to 1.67 billion bushels in Friday's report, reflecting the overstatement of feed usage
• The agency faces ongoing scrutiny after making record-large corn acreage revisions last year following staff losses and declining farmer survey response rates

Goldman Sachs COO John Waldron is widely viewed as the likely successor to CEO David Solomon, potentially by 2028, sparking internal speculation about subsequent leadership changes. CFO Denis Coleman and global banking co-head Ashok Varadhan are seen as top candidates to replace Waldron as COO. Such moves could trigger further reshuffling, including the CFO position, as the 157-year-old investment banking powerhouse prepares for its next growth phase.

• Solomon and Waldron each received $80 million retention packages in 2023 that vest in five years, potentially incentivizing Solomon to remain beyond 2028
• Coleman and Varadhan bring distinct strengths: Coleman has broader cross-functional experience, while Varadhan co-heads the banking and markets division that generates 75% of firm-wide revenue
• If Coleman becomes COO, three executives are in focus for CFO: Chief Accounting Officer Sheara Fredman, Chief Administrative Officer Ericka Leslie, and Global Treasurer Carey Halio

The US stock bull market is approaching its four-year anniversary on October 12, with the S&P 500 more than doubling since its October 2022 low, driven primarily by AI-related spending and corporate profit growth. The rally has been concentrated in technology and communication services sectors, but faces risks from Federal Reserve rate hikes, rising Treasury yields near 5.2%, and heavy dependence on continued AI momentum.

• The S&P 500 has gained 117% since October 2022, ranking as the sixth-best performing bull market since World War Two and eighth-longest in duration
• AI spending drives approximately one-third of recent US economic growth, with S&P 500 earnings expected to rise over 35% this year; Nvidia's market cap has soared from $286 billion to $5.8 trillion
• Market concentration risk has intensified as the top 10 S&P 500 companies now represent about 40% of the index (up from 28% in 2022), while the 10-year Treasury yield near 5.2% creates increased competition for equity investments

US diesel prices remain near record highs at $6.28 per gallon, up 70% since the US-Israeli war on Iran began, despite Trump administration efforts to boost supplies through allied reserve releases and expanded access to tax-exempt red-dyed diesel. The measures have failed to significantly lower prices as global supply remains tight due to ongoing conflicts in Iran and Ukraine. High fuel costs are impacting Trump's approval ratings ahead of November midterm elections, particularly hurting traditional Republican constituencies like farmers and truckers.

• Trump's executive order allowing red-dyed diesel on public roads has seen limited uptake due to unclear tax liabilities, logistical hurdles, and state-level regulatory concerns, with the 24.4-cent-per-gallon tax savings viewed as marginal given $6+ prices
• The touted G7 agreement to release 100 million barrels appears to largely cover existing March commitments from IEA members rather than representing new supply
• US distillate inventories remain near 23-year lows, and analysts say only a durable end to conflicts in the Arabian Gulf and Ukraine can significantly lower prices, describing current policy measures as 'marginal to counterproductive'

Nasdaq-100 futures rebounded in premarket trading on Friday after OpenAI's $50 billion annualized revenue report triggered a sell-off in AI stocks the previous day. The lower-than-expected revenue figure (down from a previously reported $68 billion gross revenue) hit major tech stocks including Nvidia, Oracle, and CoreWeave, while the Dow held relatively firm. The divergence shows selling pressure remains concentrated in high-flying AI stocks rather than broader market weakness.

• Nasdaq-100 futures traded up 0.86% at 31,234.75, while Dow futures gained only 0.2%, indicating selective pressure on tech stocks versus broader market stability
• AI-related stocks suffered sharp losses Thursday: CoreWeave fell over 7%, Oracle and Intel dropped 5%, AMD lost 4%, and Nvidia declined 3% on OpenAI revenue concerns
• Oil prices surged over 3-4% with Brent crude at $104.28 and WTI at $91.49, while Treasury yields remain near 24-year highs, creating additional headwinds for expensive tech valuations

Treasury yields remained largely stable Friday morning as President Trump announced he would not attack Iran until after the midterm elections, easing geopolitical tensions. The 10-year Treasury yield held at 5.24% while longer-dated 30-year yields stayed at 5.61%, after both hit their highest levels since 2002 earlier in the week.

• Energy prices fell following Trump's diplomatic comments, with WTI crude down 0.79% to $90.77 per barrel and Brent crude falling 0.99% to $103.25
• The Treasury Department sold $22 billion in 30-year notes with strong demand, as indirect bidders (including central banks) took over 72% of the auction, above the 10-auction average of 68%
• Fed Governor Christopher Waller suggested more rate hikes may be needed to combat inflation that has stayed above the Fed's 2% target for more than five years, though not necessarily immediately

Belgian designer Anthony Vaccarello is departing Saint Laurent after a decade as creative director, part of a broader restructuring at parent company Kering. Vaccarello helped transform the French couture brand into a global powerhouse, surpassing €3 billion in annual sales in 2023 by tapping Chinese demand, before revenues declined during the luxury industry slowdown. Kering will announce a new creative director soon as CEO Luca de Meo works to revamp the struggling luxury group.

• Vaccarello joined Saint Laurent in 2016, succeeding Hedi Slimane, and drove sales to over €3 billion in 2023 before the brand lost momentum
• Saint Laurent revenues fell 9% in 2024 and 6% in 2025 before stabilizing in 2026, reflecting the broader luxury industry downturn
• Saint Laurent was the last major Kering brand to retain its creative director, following earlier designer changes at Gucci, Balenciaga, and Bottega Veneta

The Financial Stability Board issued a peer review finding that fewer than half of jurisdictions have adequate emergency funding arrangements to handle failing banks without taxpayer bailouts. The review was prompted by 2023 banking turmoil, including Credit Suisse's collapse, which required Swiss government intervention. The FSB urged authorities to establish clear, well-funded liquidity mechanisms that can be deployed rapidly during banking crises.

• Fewer than half of jurisdictions have emergency funding arrangements that are clearly defined, sufficiently large, and capable of quick deployment during bank failures
• Credit Suisse's 2023 collapse required emergency liquidity facilities, government backstops, and AT1 bond writedowns, highlighting gaps in crisis preparedness
• FSB recommends authorities identify public funding sources in advance, establish clear legal frameworks for support, and ensure powers to recover losses from failed institutions

Record-high tanker freight rates have made US crude oil economically unviable for Asian refiners, with shipping costs from the US Gulf to China hitting $80 million per very large crude carrier (VLCC) in November. This has closed the arbitrage window for US-Asia crude trade, forcing Asian buyers to seek alternatives from the Middle East and Latin America. The surge stems from inefficient ship-to-ship transfers due to Strait of Hormuz closure and increased Atlantic crude demand.

• VLCC freight rates on US Gulf-Asia routes have spiked over 300% since mid-August, with shipping costs now at $40 per barrel versus $8.60 before the US-Israeli war on Iran began in February
• UAE Murban crude has become approximately $2 per barrel cheaper than WTI on a delivered basis to Asia, causing its premium to Dubai quotes to rebound above $11 per barrel
• Asian refiners and traders are shifting strategies by using smaller Aframax tankers or switching to Middle Eastern and Latin American alternatives like Murban and Medanito from Argentina