General Market News

Markets enter a turbulent week focused on President Trump's announcement of new 15% global tariffs following a Supreme Court ruling that struck down prior tariff measures. Key corporate earnings, particularly Nvidia's February 25 results, and economic data including Friday's US Producer Price Index will also drive sentiment. Multiple Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak, providing insight into policy views amid trade uncertainty.

• Trump invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act to implement 15% global tariffs for 150 days without Congressional approval, raising questions about exemptions, refunds, and fiscal impact
• Nvidia reports quarterly results February 25 after market close, with analysts expecting strong revenue and income growth driven by AI demand
• Several Fed officials including Waller, Goolsbee, Collins, Bostic, and Barkin will speak this week, while US PPI data releases Friday alongside Trump's State of the Union address on Tuesday

All three major U.S. stock indices fell below their 50-day moving averages on Monday, February 23, 2026, signaling broad selling pressure across markets. The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average each face critical support levels after recent rallies failed. This synchronized weakness suggests a potential shift from equities to cash rather than mere sector rotation.

• The S&P 500 was rejected at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of 6915.65 and fell below its 50-day MA at 6986.68, with key support now at the 6845-6829 retracement zone.
• The Nasdaq failed to break above the major 50% level at 22959.14 and could test support at 22602-22521, with the 200-day MA at 21903.72 becoming relevant if selling intensifies.
• The Dow crossed below its 50-day MA at 49027.98 for the first time since November 25, ending a rally that produced record highs before peaking at 50512.79 on February 10.

U.S. factory orders fell 0.7% in December 2024, primarily due to a 24.8% drop in commercial aircraft bookings, though other sectors showed strength driven by AI investment. The decline was slightly larger than the 0.6% forecast, but orders still rose 3.7% year-over-year. Manufacturing faces headwinds from Trump's tariff policies, despite support from AI adoption in certain segments.

• Commercial aircraft orders plunged 24.8% after surging 98.2% in November, with Boeing receiving 175 orders in December but mostly for less expensive models
• AI-related sectors showed strength: computer and electronic product orders jumped 3.1%, while orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft rose a revised 0.8%
• Trump's tariff policies continue to pressure manufacturing, which represents 10.1% of the economy, with a 15% tariff rate imposed after the Supreme Court struck down his emergency tariffs

JPMorgan recommends buying dips in international stocks, arguing that non-US markets will continue outperforming US equities as leadership shifts away from mega-cap tech. International markets outperformed the US by 12% in 2025 and are already ahead by 8% in 2026, driven by favorable growth-inflation conditions and the stalling of Mag-7 tech giants despite strong earnings.

• International stocks outperformed US markets by 12% in 2025 and lead by 8% year-to-date in 2026, with JPMorgan expecting this trend to continue
• Market leadership is broadening away from Mag-7 tech stocks toward small caps, value stocks, and international equities, with mega-cap tech having 'stalled' despite strong earnings
• JPMorgan sees pullbacks triggered by geopolitical risks (Iran tensions, tariffs) as temporary buying opportunities given solid earnings, softening inflation, and lower long-dated bond yields

US stocks opened flat on Monday after President Trump raised global tariffs from 10% to 15%, following a Supreme Court ruling that struck down his earlier 'reciprocal' tariff framework. The move increased market uncertainty about inflation, growth, and corporate earnings, prompting investors to adopt a cautious stance. Gold rallied over 1% as a safe haven while Bitcoin fell below $65,000 before recovering.

• Trump imposed the 15% tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows duties for up to 150 days before requiring congressional approval, with warnings of additional levies possible in coming months
• The European Commission expressed concern that the tariff increase is 'not conducive' to fair transatlantic trade and called for clarity from the US government on trade policy direction
• Gold futures climbed around 2% as investors sought safety, while Bitcoin dropped approximately 2% to around $66,000, reflecting a shift toward traditional safe-haven assets amid rising risk aversion

The Supreme Court struck down President Trump's tariffs in a 6-3 ruling on Friday, but Trump responded by announcing a new 15% global tariff over the weekend. Stock futures fell Monday morning as investors assess the policy reversal, which could result in billions in refunds and has disrupted ongoing trade negotiations. Markets had ended the prior week in positive territory despite the uncertainty.

• The Supreme Court ruled Trump's original tariff authority was unauthorized, potentially triggering billions in refunds to importers who already paid duties
• Trump quickly enacted a new 15% global tariff after the ruling, drawing criticism from European and Asian leaders and causing India to pause trade negotiations
• OpenAI slashed its projected infrastructure spending from $1.4 trillion to $600 billion by 2030, while raising revenue expectations to over $280 billion by decade's end

The dollar has lost some of its safe-haven status since 2024, according to an ING report, though there is no broad deterioration in global demand for the currency. The dollar index fell nearly 10% last year, its worst annual performance since 2017, amid concerns over U.S. trade policy and Trump's attacks on the Federal Reserve. ING assesses the weakness as more cyclical than structural at this stage.

• ING measured the decline in safe-haven status by calculating the three-month correlation between the dollar index and U.S. stocks and 10-year Treasuries compared to 2024
• Private investors, who hold over 80% of foreign holdings of U.S. assets, remain invested, and there are no signs of accelerated de-dollarisation in global transactions
• ING warns that if the Fed were seen cutting rates inappropriately, 'a run on the dollar' could follow, and forecasts the euro at $1.22 by year-end versus current levels around $1.18

US stock futures pointed lower on February 23, 2026, as President Trump announced a revised 15% global tariff under Section 122 authority after the Supreme Court ruled his previous broad-based tariffs unconstitutional. The tariff uncertainty and potential US-Iran military strikes drove investors toward safe-haven assets like gold and silver, while weighing on tech stocks particularly in the Nasdaq.

• Trump increased his planned global tariff from 10% to the maximum 15% allowed under Section 122 authority, though this measure expires mid-July without Congressional approval
• Gold rose over 1% to $5,163.40 per ounce and silver jumped nearly 3% to $87/oz as precious metals benefited from renewed uncertainty
• The Nasdaq remains in negative territory year-to-date and is a major global underperformer, with key events ahead including Trump's State of the Union and Nvidia earnings on Wednesday

US stock index futures declined on Monday after President Trump imposed a new 15% global tariff following a Supreme Court ruling that struck down most of his earlier levies. The Supreme Court's 6-3 decision voided a large portion of tariffs imposed last year, potentially creating a $170 billion gap in US finances. The new tariffs, implemented under a different statute, revived investor concerns about inflation, trade, and economic growth.

• Dow Jones futures fell about 127 points, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures declining 0.25% to 0.4%, reversing Friday's gains when major indexes had posted weekly increases.
• Nvidia earnings due Wednesday are closely watched for signals on AI spending, as high valuations and concerns about AI investment returns have pressured tech stocks, with the S&P 500 software index down over 20% this year.
• Bitcoin dropped nearly 3% to $66,141, oil prices weakened with Brent at $70.27/barrel, while gold and silver mining stocks advanced with Newmont up 1% amid market uncertainty.

U.S. Treasury yields remained largely unchanged early in the week as investors assessed President Trump's decision to raise global tariffs to 15% from 10%, following a Supreme Court ruling that struck down much of his previous tariff implementation. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.076%, while investors await key economic data including durable goods orders and producer price index.

• The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 on Friday that Trump wrongfully used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to enforce tariffs, but Trump immediately responded by raising global tariffs to 15%
• Treasury yields showed minimal movement: 10-year at 4.076% (down less than 1 basis point), 30-year at 4.72%, and 2-year at 3.47%
• Investors are monitoring upcoming economic data releases, including durable goods orders and factory orders on Monday, and the producer price index on Friday

Following a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that struck down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), President Trump implemented new 15% global duties under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act. This shift has created winners and losers: U.S. allies like the U.K., EU, Japan, and South Korea face higher trade-weighted tariffs, while countries like Brazil and China see sharp reductions. The change has raised confusion about existing bilateral trade deals and their enforceability.

• The U.K. faces a 2.1 percentage point tariff increase and the EU sees a 0.8 point rise, while Brazil's rate drops 13.6 points and China's falls 7.1 points on a trade-weighted basis.
• Countries that negotiated early deals with the U.S., such as Japan (which committed $150 billion in investment), now receive the same treatment as those who resisted negotiations, potentially paying for no advantage.
• Uncertainty persists as Trump announced 15% tariffs but the White House fact sheet lists 10%, and the legal basis for bilateral deals and product-level carve-outs under Section 122 remains unclear.

Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 oil price forecasts by $6, projecting Brent crude at $60 per barrel and WTI at $56, driven by lower OECD inventory levels. The bank also increased its full-year 2026 averages to $64 for Brent (from $56) and $60 for WTI (from $52), while maintaining its outlook of a 2.3 million bpd supply surplus and assuming no Iran-related supply disruptions.

• Goldman's $60 Brent forecast for Q4 2026 includes a $6 risk premium that could fade if geopolitical tensions ease, with downside risks of $5-8 per barrel if sanctions on Iran or Russia are lifted
• The bank expects OPEC+ to begin gradually increasing production in Q2 2026 as OECD inventories have not built up as anticipated
• Goldman projects Brent and WTI to average $65 and $61 respectively in 2027, rising to $70 and $66 by December 2027 on solid demand and slowing supply growth

European stocks are expected to open lower on Monday as markets react to President Trump's announcement of increased global tariffs from 10% to 15%, effective immediately. The move comes after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against a portion of Trump's reciprocal tariffs last week, prompting the administration to implement broader tariff measures that have heightened concerns about inflation and global growth.

• U.K. stocks expected to open 0.2% lower, with Germany down 0.7%, France down 0.4%, and Italy down 0.45%
• Trump raised the worldwide tariff from 10% to 15% effective immediately via Truth Social, warning that additional levies would follow
• Market uncertainty has increased over the outlook for inflation and global growth following the new blanket tariff policy

The U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump's sweeping tariffs, ruling he wrongfully invoked emergency powers, which has strengthened China's negotiating position ahead of an April summit between Trump and Xi Jinping. The ruling weakens Trump's leverage on his signature trade policy as he seeks to secure commitments from China on purchases of U.S. goods while Beijing is expected to push for reduced support for Taiwan.

• Trump's tariff authority has been 'clipped' as the Supreme Court invalidated his use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), resulting in an estimated 5-7% net reduction in U.S. tariffs on China according to Goldman Sachs
• China gains leverage to demand removal of remaining 10% fentanyl-linked tariffs, rollback of technology export controls, and reduced U.S. arms sales to Taiwan during the March 31-April 2 summit
• Trump retains non-tariff tools including technology controls and sanctions, and has responded by imposing a 15% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act, though a Section 301 investigation into China's Phase One trade deal compliance remains ongoing

The U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump's tariffs, creating fiscal uncertainty as potential refunds could reach $170 billion while Trump rushes to impose replacement levies. The ruling has triggered dollar weakness and volatility in Treasury markets as investors grapple with unclear implications for U.S. finances, inflation, and trade policy. Markets face heightened uncertainty despite Trump's replacement tariffs being lower than the original levies.

• Potential tariff refunds of around $170 billion could force additional Treasury issuance, risking curve steepening pressure particularly at the long end amid already elevated borrowing needs
• Trump's 15% replacement tariff lasts only 150 days with unclear implementation details, down from original levies that were projected to generate $300 billion annually over the next decade
• The dollar has dropped nearly 12% since Trump's second term began in early 2025, falling 0.4% against the euro on Monday as uncertainty mounts over fiscal deficits and trade policy

Markets showed limited reaction to President Trump's latest tariff announcement raising global tariffs to 15% from 10%, following a Supreme Court ruling that struck down earlier levies. Analysts suggest investors remain patient and focus on fundamentals rather than react to what many view as temporary negotiating tactics, though the tariff adjustments represent a procedural reset rather than a policy reversal.

• Trump reimposed tariffs at 15% under Section 122 after the Supreme Court invalidated his prior IEEPA-based tariffs, but analysts note this new authority is temporary and less flexible than previous measures
• Market reaction was muted with Asia stocks mostly higher, U.S. dollar down 0.3%, and Treasury yields unchanged, while Bitcoin fell over 5% reflecting its high-beta liquidity characteristics
• Top strategists recommend a 'sit still and do nothing' approach, arguing that Trump's pattern of using tariffs as negotiating leverage (dubbed 'TACO: Trump Always Chickens Out') makes policy statements non-durable

Bitcoin dropped more than 5% to fall below $65,000 on Monday following President Donald Trump's announcement of plans to raise global tariffs to 15%. The decline reflects weakened risk sentiment among investors reacting to the escalating trade measures.

• Bitcoin fell from approximately $68,410 to below $65,000, representing a loss of over $3,800 per coin
• The cryptocurrency decline coincided with Trump's announcement of a 15% global tariff increase, creating broader market uncertainty
• The sell-off demonstrates Bitcoin's sensitivity to macroeconomic policy changes and its correlation with risk-off sentiment in financial markets

The European Commission strongly demanded the US honor last year's EU-US trade deal after President Trump imposed new 10-15% across-the-board tariffs following a Supreme Court ruling that struck down his global tariffs. The EU insists its products must maintain agreed-upon competitive treatment with no tariff increases beyond previously negotiated limits.

• Last year's trade deal eliminated tariffs for most EU goods (except sectoral items like steel) and allowed zero tariffs on products such as aircraft and spare parts
• Trump announced temporary 10% tariffs after the Supreme Court ruling, which he subsequently increased to 15%
• EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic discussed the issue with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Saturday

Donald Trump raised worldwide tariffs on imported goods to 15%, up from the 10% rate he announced just one day earlier on Friday. The move comes after the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that his previous tariff methods under a 1977 law were unconstitutional, forcing him to use a different legal mechanism (Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974) that only lasts 150 days.

• The Supreme Court deemed Trump's prior tariff system unconstitutional, ruling that the tariffs exceeded presidential powers granted by Congress under a 1977 law for national emergencies
• The new 15% global tariff uses Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which has a 150-day limit, forcing the administration to seek alternative legal mechanisms
• Exemptions exist for agricultural products, steel, and cars, but governments worldwide are seeking clarity amid confusion and uncertainty about implementation

President Trump raised tariffs on all US imports from 10% to 15% on Saturday, less than 24 hours after the Supreme Court struck down his previous tariff policy as exceeding presidential authority. The new tariffs are imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows up to 15% tariffs for 150 days without congressional approval, though legal challenges are expected.

• The US has already collected at least $130 billion in tariffs under the struck-down IEEPA authority, with studies showing 90% of costs have been passed to American consumers
• The 15% tariff includes exemptions for critical minerals, metals, pharmaceuticals, and USMCA-compliant goods from Canada and Mexico, while separate industry-specific tariffs on steel, aluminum, lumber and autos remain in place
• International leaders including German Chancellor Merz and French President Macron criticized the move, with Merz warning that 'the biggest poison for the economies of Europe and the US is this constant uncertainty about tariffs'