General Market News

U.S. stock markets showed mixed performance this past week, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rising but remaining below key technical levels amid concerns over potential Iran military action and Supreme Court tariff rulings. Economic data revealed weak Q4 GDP growth of 1.4% (down from 4.4% in Q3) but hot core PCE inflation returning to 3%, dampening Federal Reserve rate cut expectations for the first half of 2026.

• Market odds of a Fed rate cut by June 17 dropped to 52% from 69% a week earlier after core PCE inflation hit 3% in December, the highest since February
• Walmart beat Q4 earnings expectations with 12% EPS growth and 24% e-commerce sales growth, but guided lower on fiscal Q1 and 2027 earnings, dragging on the Dow
• Nvidia announced a multiyear partnership to supply Meta with millions of Blackwell and Rubin AI chips ahead of its February 25 earnings report, while heavy construction firms and chipmakers delivered strong results driven by AI data center demand

The US Supreme Court has struck down approximately half of Trump's tariffs, ruling that those imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) are unconstitutional. The decision challenges the president's unilateral tariff authority and may force the administration to refund money collected under the 'Liberation Day' tariffs, though Trump could attempt to reimpose levies using other legal loopholes.

• About half of Trump's tariffs, specifically those imposed under the IEEPA for 'Liberation Day', are now null and void following the Supreme Court ruling
• The administration may be required to refund part or all of the money collected under these now-invalidated tariffs
• The ruling comes as Trump's poll ratings slump partly due to tariff unpopularity, though the White House may attempt to reimpose levies using other legal loopholes like Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act

The Supreme Court struck down President Trump's sweeping international trade tariffs, ruling he lacked authority under the International Economic Emergency Powers Act to impose them unilaterally. Trump called the decision 'deeply disappointing' and said he was 'ashamed' of the court majority, vowing to pursue tariffs through other legal avenues despite likely facing renewed court challenges.

• The ruling invalidated the centerpiece of Trump's economic agenda, with the court determining he exceeded his emergency powers authority
• Trump pledged to maintain national security tariffs and seek alternative routes, citing Justice Brett Kavanaugh's dissent and potential Congressional authorization
• Replicating the tariff scope through Congress or other trade legislation appears highly unlikely and would face additional legal challenges

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan stated that monetary policy is 'well positioned' to handle economic risks, though she remains concerned about inflation reaching the Fed's 2% target. She expressed cautious optimism about the inflation path but noted uncertainties from tariffs and a recent Supreme Court decision are complicating the outlook.

• Logan is 'not fully convinced' the economy is on a clear pathway to the 2% inflation target despite current monetary policy stance
• Tariffs continue to work through the economic system, adding uncertainty to inflation projections
• A recent Supreme Court decision on tariffs has introduced additional uncertainty to the economic outlook

The US Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that Trump exceeded his authority by imposing sweeping tariffs without congressional approval, finding his use of the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act illegal. The decision affects tariffs generating an estimated $240-300 billion in revenue last year, with potential refunds owed to US importers who bore most costs. Trump called the ruling a 'disgrace' and experts say he will likely use alternative legal mechanisms to continue his tariff strategy.

• The court struck down tariffs Trump imposed under emergency powers on dozens of countries including the UK, China, Canada, Mexico, and EU nations, affirming lower court rulings
• Experts say Trump will pivot to other tariff authorities like section 232 (targeted sector tariffs with EU steel at 50%) or section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act (allowing 15% surcharges for 150 days)
• Refunds of $240-300 billion paid mostly by US firms and consumers could be owed but are 'not likely to be paid back soon,' with Justice Kavanaugh calling the process a 'mess'

The Supreme Court struck down President Trump's signature tariff policy in a 6-3 ruling, determining that the statute used to justify his biggest tariffs does not actually authorize those import duties. Trump is scheduled to hold a White House press briefing to respond to this significant legal setback, which undermines his ability to unilaterally impose tariffs without Congress.

• The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that the legal statute Trump cited does not authorize his major tariff programs
• The ruling represents a significant loss for Trump, whose economic and foreign policy relied heavily on his claimed power to impose tariffs unilaterally
• Trump announced a White House press briefing scheduled for 12:45 p.m. ET, approximately two hours after the court's decision

Markets in 2025 defied recession fears, with global equities hitting all-time highs as investors learned to distinguish political noise from economic signals. International equities outperformed U.S. markets by over 14%, gold surged 64%, and correlations between asset classes normalized, strengthening the case for global diversification. Looking to 2026, the landscape features higher structural inflation, dispersed risks, and concerns about AI capital misallocation as easy post-pandemic returns are exhausted.

• Gold returned 64% in 2025, vastly outperforming Bitcoin (-6%) and establishing itself as a more reliable portfolio diversifier despite questions about the sustainability of such gains.
• The Fed cut rates 75 basis points, but long-term yields remained elevated (10-year at 4.18%) as investors demanded compensation for inflation risk and fiscal uncertainty, steeping the yield curve.
• AI capital expenditure reached $360 billion in 2025 with projections of $3-5 trillion over five years, but rapid depreciation (processing power improved 30x in four years) poses significant risk to debt-financed infrastructure.
• International market correlations with the U.S. fell to healthier levels (developed markets ~0.7, China ~0.2), while private equity returns are converging toward public markets as capital inflows reduce the illiquidity premium.

The US Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that former President Trump exceeded his authority by imposing tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and other countries under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The decision strikes down tariffs justified by national emergencies like fentanyl trafficking and trade deficits, potentially affecting $133.5 billion in tariff revenue, though alternative tariff mechanisms remain available.

• Chief Justice Roberts wrote that while IEEPA allows presidential action in economic emergencies, it does not authorize tariffs specifically, invalidating those implemented under this statute
• Approximately $133.5-$175 billion in tariff revenue is potentially affected, with Wedbush noting this creates 'financial relief for many companies' and greater supply chain visibility, particularly benefiting tech and AI sectors
• US stocks rallied on the news with the Nasdaq up 0.8%, S&P 500 up 0.4%, and Dow up 0.1%, reversing earlier losses from weak Q4 growth and higher inflation data

The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that President Trump's country-specific 'reciprocal' tariffs under IEEPA are unconstitutional, but tariffs imposed under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act remain in effect. Section 232 tariffs target specific products deemed threats to national security, including steel, aluminum, semiconductors, autos, and furniture. Multiple industries continue facing elevated import costs despite the Supreme Court ruling.

• Automotive sector still faces 25% tariffs on vehicles and certain auto parts, with some countries negotiating lower rates of 10-15%; GM expects $2 billion in tariff impact for 2026 while Ford forecasts $3-4 billion in costs
• Furniture industry remains subject to approximately 25% tariffs on items like couches and cabinets, with rates expected to rise to 50% in 2027, contributing to industry bankruptcies including Value City Furniture's parent company
• Aluminum tariffs raised to 50% continue affecting beverage and consumer packaged goods companies like Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Anheuser-Busch and Molson Coors; pharmaceutical tariffs up to 200% have been threatened but major drugmakers secured three-year exemptions through voluntary price reduction deals

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6-3 to strike down major portions of President Trump's global tariff regime, finding that the underlying law does not authorize the President to impose such tariffs. World leaders and trading partners from the EU, U.K., Canada, and Switzerland cautiously welcomed the decision but warned of continued uncertainty as Trump may have other legal options to maintain import levies.

• The ruling primarily focused on reciprocal tariffs but leaves much of existing bilateral agreements, like the U.K.'s May 2025 deal with 10% broad levies and carve-outs for steel, aluminum, cars and pharmaceuticals, largely unaffected
• Trade bodies warn businesses still face 'murky waters' as the President retains 'other options at his disposal' to reimpose tariffs through alternative legal mechanisms
• Key questions remain unresolved, including how U.S. importers can reclaim levies already paid and whether exporters can receive refunds for tariffs collected under the now-invalidated policy

The U.S. Supreme Court overturned President Trump's emergency tariffs, potentially triggering $175 billion in refunds to businesses. However, thousands of companies face a slow, complex refund process that could take months to years, with some selling their refund rights to investors for immediate cash. The ruling doesn't eliminate all tariffs, as the administration plans to continue levying duties under other legal authorities.

• Over 1,800 tariff-related lawsuits filed since April 2024 involve major companies like Toyota, Costco, Goodyear, and Alcoa, with more expected to join now that the ruling provides legal cover
• Companies selling refund rights to investors receive only 25-30 cents on the dollar upfront, while the refund process requires gathering detailed import data across different tariff regimes and time periods
• Trump's tariffs raised the effective U.S. tariff rate to 11.7% (from 2.7% average in 2022-2024), with 90% of costs borne by American consumers according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York

The U.S. government could owe over $175 billion in refunds to importers following a Supreme Court ruling that declared President Trump's unilaterally imposed tariffs illegal. The 6-3 decision found Trump violated the law by using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose duties without Congressional authorization. Multiple importers have pending lawsuits seeking refunds for tariffs already collected.

• The Penn-Wharton Budget Model estimates potential refunds exceed $175 billion, up from the $133.5 billion that U.S. Customs reported in December as being at risk
• Trump was the first president to invoke IEEPA for tariff imposition, and the Supreme Court ruling did not explicitly address whether collected tariffs must be refunded
• Dissenting Justice Kavanaugh warned the refund process would be a 'mess' and could create uncertainty around trade deals worth trillions of dollars with China, the U.K., Japan, and other nations

The Supreme Court ruled against President Trump in a landmark case challenging the legality of his tariffs, dealing a significant blow to his trade agenda. The ruling comes as tariff revenue has surged roughly 300% since Trump's return to office, reaching $30.4 billion in January 2026 alone. The cases questioned whether Congress gave the president authority to impose the sweeping 'Liberation Day' tariffs introduced in April 2025.

• Tariff collections jumped from $9.6 billion in March to $23.9 billion in May 2025, with fiscal 2026 receipts reaching $124 billion, a 304% increase year-over-year
• Two companies challenged the tariffs: Learning Resources Inc. (educational toy manufacturer) and V.O.S. Selections Inc. (wine and spirits importer), arguing Trump exceeded constitutional authority
• Trump has proposed using tariff revenue to issue $2,000 checks to Americans and pay down national debt, though collections remain small compared to total obligations exceeding $36 trillion

The U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump's emergency tariffs in a 6-3 vote, sending U.S. stock indexes higher after earlier losses driven by weak GDP data and persistent inflation. The GDP rose only 1.4% versus an expected 2.5%, while PCE inflation remained at 3%, above the Fed's 2% target, reducing June rate-cut expectations and raising stagflation concerns.

• GDP growth of 1.4% significantly missed the 2.5% estimate, with the Commerce Department attributing roughly 1% of the shortfall to a government shutdown.
• PCE inflation held steady at 3%, keeping it above the Fed's 2% target and lowering June rate-cut odds to 46.8% from 50.2%.
• The tariff ruling is viewed as bullish because it removes cost burdens on importers, reduces earnings uncertainty, and creates disinflationary pressure that gives the Fed more room to cut rates.

The US Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that President Trump overstepped his executive authority by imposing tariffs on global imports under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The decision strikes down a key component of Trump's economic agenda, determining that the 1977 emergency powers law did not provide legal justification for the tariffs, which typically require Congressional approval as they constitute taxes.

• The court rejected the administration's argument that tariffs were 'regulatory' rather than revenue-raising, with Justice Sotomayor stating 'that's exactly what they are' when referring to tariffs as taxes
• Chief Justice John Roberts, a Trump appointee, expressed skepticism, noting that 'the imposition of taxes on Americans has always been a core power of Congress'
• Trump had claimed the ruling would be the 'difference between going bankrupt and thriving' for the US, while economists have warned the tariffs risk raising prices for Americans after years of high inflation

The Supreme Court ruled on February 20, 2026, that President Donald Trump does not have the authority to unilaterally impose tariffs, dealing a significant blow to his central economic policy. The court determined that the president lacked sufficient justification to impose tariffs during peacetime.

• The ruling strikes down Trump's unilateral tariff authority, undermining a cornerstone of his economic agenda
• The court specifically cited lack of justification for imposing tariffs during peacetime as the basis for its decision
• This decision represents a major judicial check on presidential power over trade policy

The Supreme Court struck down a significant portion of President Donald Trump's tariff agenda on Friday, ruling that the underlying law does not authorize the President to impose such tariffs. The decision represents a major legal setback to Trump's trade policy and his authority to unilaterally implement import duties.

• The Supreme Court majority ruled that the law supporting Trump's import duties 'does not authorize the President to impose tariffs'
• The ruling strikes down a 'huge chunk' of Trump's far-reaching tariff agenda, limiting presidential authority on trade policy
• This is breaking news with limited details currently available, suggesting potential significant economic and policy implications to follow

US GDP growth slowed to 1.4% in Q4 2025, significantly below the 3% forecast, primarily due to a 43-day government shutdown that subtracted an estimated 1.5 percentage points from growth. The slowdown highlights a 'K-shaped' economy with weak job creation of only 181,000 jobs for the full year, the fewest since 2009 outside the pandemic.

• The Congressional Budget Office estimated the shutdown would cost between $7bn and $14bn in unrecovered economic output, with most other losses eventually recovered
• Only 181,000 jobs were added in 2025, down from 1.459 million in 2024, marking the weakest employment growth since the Great Recession
• AI investment (datacenters, semiconductors, software) accounted for roughly one-third of GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2025, while tax cuts and larger refunds are expected to support consumer spending this year

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the PCE index, showed consumer prices rose 0.4% monthly and 2.9% annually in December, exceeding economist expectations. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.4% monthly and 3% yearly, also coming in hotter than forecasted. The elevated inflation readings indicate ongoing price pressures that continue to challenge consumers and the Fed's efforts to bring inflation down to its 2% target.

• PCE index rose 0.4% monthly and 2.9% annually in December, both above economist estimates of 0.3% and 2.8%
• Core PCE increased 0.4% monthly and 3% yearly, surpassing expectations of 0.3% and 2.9% respectively
• The hotter-than-expected inflation data suggests price pressures remain stubborn, complicating the Fed's path toward its 2% inflation target

The U.S. economy grew at just 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024, significantly below the 3% rate economists had anticipated, according to the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis. This marks a notable deceleration from the third quarter's stronger growth performance.

• Fourth quarter GDP growth of 1.4% fell well short of the 3% consensus forecast from economists surveyed by LSEG
• The 1.4% growth rate represents a slowdown from the third quarter's pace, signaling potential economic cooling
• The advance estimate covers the period from October through December 2024