General Market News

U.S. stock index futures surged Wednesday morning, with Dow futures up 266 points and S&P 500 futures rising 0.57%, driven by AMD's blowout earnings and a sharp 6.4% drop in oil prices. AMD jumped 15% after hours on strong Q1 results and raised Q2 guidance, while easing oil prices amid a holding U.S.-Iran ceasefire provided additional support to markets already at record highs.

• AMD reported Q1 revenue of $10.25 billion (beating $9.89 billion estimate) and guided Q2 to approximately $11.2 billion, driving a 15% after-hours surge
• Oil prices retreated sharply with WTI down 6.39% to $95.74/barrel as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire held and Strait of Hormuz activity remained 'low level'
• 84% of S&P 500 companies reporting Q1 earnings have beaten estimates, with the index closing at a fresh record of 7,259.22 on Tuesday

Global stocks and bonds rallied on Wednesday after Axios reported the U.S. and Iran are nearing a one-page agreement to end their conflict, causing oil prices to tumble. European markets jumped 2.2% while the U.S. dollar weakened, though Reuters could not independently verify the report and cautioned nothing has been finalized yet.

• Europe's STOXX 600 surged 2.2% with banks and miners leading gains, while oil and gas stocks fell on prospects of reduced geopolitical tensions
• U.S. 10-year Treasury yields dropped 6 basis points to 4.35%, while European bonds outperformed with German 10-year yields falling 7.5 bps to 2.99%
• The U.S. expects Iranian responses on key points within 48 hours, marking the closest the parties have been to an agreement since the war began

Poland's defence minister called for NATO countries to accelerate their defence spending target to 5% of GDP by 2030, five years earlier than the alliance's agreed 2035 deadline. The push reflects mounting security concerns from Russia's threat, particularly among eastern European members. Poland, NATO's biggest military spender relative to economy size, plans to allocate 4.8% of GDP to defence by 2026.

• NATO leaders agreed in June 2025 to spend 5% of GDP on defence and security-related investments by 2035, including cybersecurity and infrastructure upgrades
• Poland borders both Russia and Ukraine and has been ramping up military spending in response to what it views as growing threats from Moscow
• Defence Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz warned 'later may be too late,' emphasizing that Europe must prioritize defence as an immediate economic development priority

The Financial Stability Board is urging national regulators to increase scrutiny of the private credit industry, which has grown to nearly $2 trillion. The FSB warns that the sector's opaque data, complex funding structures, and growing interconnections with banks, insurers, and asset managers pose risks to global financial stability, particularly as credit conditions deteriorate and the market remains untested in economic downturns.

• Banks have provided $220 billion in credit lines to private credit funds, though commercial data suggests actual exposure could be twice as large, with major banks like JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Citigroup reporting exposures of $20-30 billion each
• The sector's high leverage is concentrated in technology, healthcare, and services, with borrowers increasingly relying on payment-in-kind loans that signal deteriorating credit conditions
• The FSB is calling for improved supervision including better data sharing, enhanced monitoring of liquidity mismatches, and stronger scrutiny of valuation practices and risk management across the predominantly U.S.-based industry

EDP Renewables, the world's fourth-largest wind power producer, will maintain the United States as its top investment market with 4.5 billion euros planned through 2028, despite recently exiting U.S. offshore wind projects. The U.S. represents approximately 60% of the company's total investment through 2028, signaling continued commitment to American renewable energy markets.

• EDPR will invest 4.5 billion euros ($5.26 billion) in the U.S. over the next three years, representing about 60% of total company investment through 2028
• The company remains 'very comfortable' with its 50-50 joint venture Ocean Winds with France's Engie, which develops offshore wind projects in multiple countries outside the U.S.
• CEO criticized proposed windfall taxes by Portugal and Spain on electricity producers as making 'no sense' since they are not benefiting from higher natural gas prices driven by the Iran war

The SEC released a proposal on Tuesday allowing publicly traded companies to optionally switch from quarterly to semiannual reporting, filing a new Form 10-S instead of the traditional Form 10-Q. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins argues this provides regulatory flexibility for companies and investors to determine optimal reporting frequency. However, some investors and analysts express concern that less frequent mandatory disclosures could reduce transparency and make it harder to evaluate company performance.

• Companies can opt into semiannual reporting at the start of each fiscal year and switch back to quarterly reporting the following year if desired
• The SEC clarifies that companies can still hold quarterly earnings calls even with semiannual filing requirements, though critics doubt companies would do so voluntarily
• The public comment period will remain open for 60 days after publication in the Federal Register

Momentum and growth factors dominated April 2025, with the S&P 500 Momentum index returning 19.3% and Pure Growth returning 16%, as the S&P 500 posted its best monthly performance (10.5%) since November 2020. This reversed the recent investor shift toward defensive value and quality strategies, as risk-on sentiment returned driven by AI earnings and tech megacaps. Only 4 of 17 factor indices outperformed the benchmark, with defensive strategies like Low Volatility significantly underperforming.

• The S&P 500 Momentum index outperformed the benchmark by 8.8%, while Pure Growth and High Beta outperformed by 5.8% and 5.5% respectively; defensive Low Volatility trailed by 8.5%
• The Magnificent Seven tech stocks contributed nearly half (5.1% of 10.5%) of the S&P 500's monthly gains, though only 23.2% of individual stocks outperformed the index
• The rally extended beyond megacaps, with midcap and large-cap stocks in tech, industrials, and discretionary sectors generating significant alpha outside the Magnificent Seven concentration

U.S. stock markets rallied on Tuesday with the Dow gaining 356 points and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching record highs. The advance was driven by falling oil prices amid a stable U.S.-Iran ceasefire and strong corporate earnings, with 85% of S&P 500 companies beating expectations. AI and semiconductor stocks led gains as investors focused on robust first-quarter profit growth.

• Oil prices retreated sharply, with WTI crude falling 3.9% to $102.27 and Brent down 4% to $109.87, easing inflation concerns as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire holds
• Corporate earnings showed exceptional strength with 85% of S&P 500 companies beating estimates and aggregate first-quarter profit growth tracking at 28% year-over-year, the strongest since 2021
• The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index hit a record high as AI-driven demand continued, with AMD surging 6% after-hours on strong results

Aluminum prices have surged over 13% since U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran began, rising 19% in 2026 to multiyear highs. The increase is creating significant cost pressures for manufacturers across industries, from automakers to beverage producers. Supply disruptions from the Middle East conflict, which accounts for 7% of global aluminum supply, are driving the rally.

• Ford expects commodity headwinds to exceed $2 billion—roughly double previous estimates—due largely to aluminum costs, though UBS notes the automaker has hedged its 2026 exposure
• Molson Coors reported $30 million in additional first-quarter costs from higher aluminum prices and expects further inflation in the current quarter
• UBS slashed its 2026 aluminum supply growth forecast to 0.3% from 2.4%, citing Middle East disruptions and limited European capacity expansion

The US economy shows continued strength as the Federal Reserve transitions leadership, with the Dallas Fed Weekly Economic Index rising to 3.0% from 2.5%. The Fed faces challenges balancing solid economic expansion against inflation risks from energy markets and geopolitical tensions, amid ongoing fiscal deficits and less consensus-driven policymaking than in previous cycles.

• The Dallas Fed Weekly Economic Index, a real-time GDP-equivalent metric, increased to 3.0% from 2.5%, signaling accelerating economic momentum
• Manufacturing PMI surveys indicate a continued renaissance driven by AI infrastructure spending and reshoring, supporting both growth and productivity
• The Fed's current environment differs significantly from Powell's 2018 start, with more prominent inflation risks, larger fiscal policy influence, and persistent deficits complicating policy decisions

The U.S. State Department approved a potential $540 million sale to Canada for C-17 sustainment services and related equipment on May 5. Boeing will serve as the principal contractor for the deal. This represents a significant military support agreement between the two allied nations.

• The sale focuses on C-17 sustainment services rather than new aircraft, indicating support for Canada's existing military transport fleet
• Boeing has been designated as the principal contractor for the $540 million agreement
• The approval is preliminary and represents a 'possible' sale, requiring further steps before finalization

Semiconductor stocks historically outperform in May, with 13 of the S&P 500's top 25 May performers being semiconductor companies over the past decade. The PHLX Semiconductor Index recently completed an 18-day win streak with a 45% gain, while Nvidia averaged 17.4% returns in May with a 90% win rate. The strong May performance is largely driven by earnings reports that historically fall during this month.

• 13 of 25 best-performing S&P 500 stocks in May (last 10 years) are semiconductor companies, with 11 being SOX index components
• Five major chip stocks report earnings in May 2026: Nvidia, ON Semiconductor, Microchip Technology, Analog Devices, and Applied Materials, with options markets pricing 12.3% moves for some
• The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has averaged 6.8% May returns over the last decade with a 90% win rate

The SEC has formally proposed allowing public companies to replace mandatory quarterly earnings reports (10-Qs) with semiannual reports (10-S), advancing a change long advocated by President Trump. The proposal argues that rigid quarterly reporting encourages short-term thinking and prevents companies from choosing disclosure frequencies that best serve their needs. The rule change now enters a 60-day public comment period before a potential SEC vote.

• Companies could file semiannual reports on a new form 10-S instead of traditional quarterly 10-Qs, while still submitting full annual reports
• SEC Chairman Paul Atkins stated that current rules prevent companies and investors from determining the interim reporting frequency that best serves their business needs
• Critics warn that reducing disclosure frequency could limit transparency and disadvantage retail investors who rely heavily on public filings, while supporters argue it would encourage long-term strategic planning

Sen. Tim Scott, chair of the Senate Banking Committee, criticized Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's decision to remain on the Fed's Board of Governors after his term as chair ends May 15. Powell is breaking 75 years of precedent by staying on the board, where he could serve until 2028, denying President Trump a majority. The Senate is expected to vote on Powell's successor, Kevin Warsh, as soon as next week.

• Powell stated he will not leave the board until an investigation into Fed building cost overruns and his related Congressional testimony is complete, though the criminal probe has been referred to the Justice Department's Inspector General
• Scott argued Powell's decision creates conflicting philosophies on the board and suggested Powell may be 'poking the president in the eye' by staying on through 2028
• The Senate Banking Committee advanced Kevin Warsh's nomination after Sen. Tillis dropped his opposition when the Trump administration's criminal investigation into Powell was ended

Gary Shilling, the economist who accurately predicted the 1969-70 recession, warns that a U.S. recession is 'almost inevitable' by year-end 2026. He cites a frozen housing market, declining corporate capital expenditures, and weakening consumer spending as key indicators. Shilling predicts a potential stock market correction of 20-30% is 'probably in the cards.'

• Capital expenditures grew only 3.9% by end of 2025, down from a pandemic peak of 24%, signaling reduced business investment confidence
• The Fed's inflation measure rose 0.7% month-over-month and 3.5% year-over-year in March, pressuring consumer spending power
• Economists remain divided: while Shilling and billionaire Leon Cooperman warn of recession, BNY Wealth's Alicia Levine points to 3% earnings growth and sees no recession in 2026

India's Securities and Exchange Board (SEBI) issued an advisory warning that AI-driven vulnerability detection tools pose new cybersecurity risks to regulated entities in the securities market. The regulator has established a task force to assess these emerging threats and develop a unified mitigation strategy. SEBI has directed market infrastructure institutions and intermediaries to report cyberattacks and vulnerabilities on a priority basis.

• SEBI's new task force will examine cyber risks associated with AI-based vulnerability detection tools and devise uniform mitigation strategies
• The task force will report cyber incidents, malicious activities, and system vulnerabilities to strengthen India's securities market cybersecurity framework
• Market infrastructure institutes and intermediaries must now report cyberattacks, vulnerabilities, and malicious activities on a priority basis

A Russian court ordered billionaire Vadim Moshkovich, founder of exchange-listed agriculture giant Rusagro, to transfer his stake to the state following fraud charges. The ruling affects a combined 65% stake held by Moshkovich, his family members, and a former CEO. Moshkovich, arrested in March 2025 and charged with embezzling $400 million, has pleaded not guilty.

• The seizure targets 65% of Rusagro, Russia's only major listed agriculture firm and a leading producer of sugar, pork, and oil products
• Moshkovich, Russia's 51st-richest person per Forbes, faces charges of embezzling 30 billion roubles ($400 million)
• Rusagro stated it continues operating normally and in full compliance with the law despite the court ruling

U.S. job openings declined by 56,000 to 6.866 million in March, but hiring surged by 655,000 to 5.554 million, suggesting the labor market is recovering after previous struggles. The mixed data supports expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady in 2025 amid inflation concerns and geopolitical risks from the U.S.-Israeli conflict.

• Job openings fell to 6.866 million with the openings rate easing to 4.1% from 4.2%, while the hires rate jumped significantly to 3.5% from 3.1% in February
• Layoffs increased by 153,000 to 1.867 million, with the layoff rate rising to 1.2% from 1.1% in the prior month
• Economists cite growing downside risks from the U.S.-Israeli conflict, which has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and boosted commodity prices; the Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% amid rising inflation concerns

The Securities and Exchange Commission is moving to eliminate a Biden-era rule that required publicly traded companies to disclose climate-related risks, emissions, and spending to investors. The rule, finalized in 2024, was immediately challenged in court by Republican-led states and industry groups and was never implemented. SEC Chair Paul Atkins stated the action will refocus the agency on disclosures that are material to investors within its legal authority.

• The climate disclosure rule was paused in 2024 pending legal challenges from industry groups and Republican states claiming the SEC exceeded its authority
• The SEC voted in March to stop defending the rule in court, and an appeals court subsequently suspended its review of the case
• The proposed rescission is currently under review by the Office of Management and Budget with no definitive timeline for final action

U.S. stocks rebounded on Tuesday with the Dow rising 198 points (0.41%) as crude oil prices fell more than 2%, easing inflation concerns despite ongoing Middle East tensions. The S&P 500 gained 0.63% and Nasdaq climbed 0.87%, supported by a mix of corporate earnings and progress on commercial shipping through contested regional straits.

• Oil prices declined approximately 2%, with Brent crude remaining above $110/barrel and WTI just above $103, reducing immediate inflation pressure on equities
• Mixed earnings drove volatility: Pinterest surged 10% on strong revenue guidance and Intel rose 3.7%, while PayPal dropped 10% despite meeting earnings expectations
• U.S. trade deficit widened to $60.3 billion in March but fell sharply year-over-year (down $211.2 billion) as exports rose 12% and imports declined 9.1%