Treasury yields hold steady after as investors weigh new Trump tariffs
Key Points
- The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 on Friday that Trump wrongfully used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to enforce tariffs, but Trump immediately responded by raising global tariffs to 15%
- Treasury yields showed minimal movement: 10-year at 4.076% (down less than 1 basis point), 30-year at 4.72%, and 2-year at 3.47%
- Investors are monitoring upcoming economic data releases, including durable goods orders and factory orders on Monday, and the producer price index on Friday
AI Summary
Summary: Treasury Yields Hold Steady Amid Trump Tariff Developments
Market Overview:
U.S. Treasury yields remained largely unchanged at the start of the week as investors assessed President Trump's latest tariff actions. As of 3:47 a.m. ET:
- 10-year Treasury yield: 4.076% (down less than 1 basis point)
- 30-year Treasury bond yield: 4.72% (down less than 1 basis point)
- 2-year Treasury note yield: 3.47% (nearly flat)
Key Development:
Despite a Supreme Court ruling on Friday that struck down much of Trump's tariff regime in a 6-3 decision—stating the president wrongfully used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA)—Trump immediately escalated trade tensions. He announced global tariffs would increase to 15% from 10%, effective immediately, with additional levies to follow.
The Supreme Court ruled that IEEPA "does not authorize the President to impose tariffs," marking a significant legal setback for the administration's trade policy approach.
Market Implications:
The muted response in Treasury markets suggests investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach as they navigate the uncertainty surrounding tariff implementation and legal challenges. The stability in yields indicates neither significant flight to safety nor substantial risk appetite.
Economic Calendar:
Investors are monitoring key economic releases, including durable goods orders and factory orders data on Monday, with the producer price index scheduled for Friday. These reports will provide insight into manufacturing activity and inflation trends amid the evolving tariff landscape.
The situation remains fluid as markets assess the legal and economic ramifications of continued trade policy escalation.
Model Analysis Breakdown
| Model | Sentiment | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| GPT-5-mini | Neutral | 74% |
| Claude 4.5 Haiku | Neutral | 85% |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | Neutral | 90% |
| Consensus | Neutral | 83% |