Tariffs, tech earnings and economic data in focus as markets enter busy week

• Trump invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act to implement 15% global tariffs for 150 days without Congressional approval, raising questions about exemptions, refunds, and fiscal impact
• Nvidia reports quarterly results February 25 after market close, with analysts expecting strong revenue and income growth driven by AI demand
• Several Fed officials including Waller, Goolsbee, Collins, Bostic, and Barkin will speak this week, while US PPI data releases Friday alongside Trump's State of the Union address on Tuesday

Market Summary: Tariffs, Tech Earnings, and Economic Data Drive Week Ahead

Global markets face a pivotal week dominated by trade policy shifts, critical tech earnings, and key economic indicators as uncertainty persists following recent Supreme Court action.

Tariff Developments:

President Trump announced a 15% increase in global tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act, following last week's Supreme Court ruling that struck down previous tariff measures. The statute permits temporary tariffs for 150 days without Congressional approval, raising questions about exemptions, refunds of previously collected duties, and fiscal impact. Deutsche Bank analysts noted that refund timing could affect medium-term economic and fiscal outlooks.

Market Reaction:

Despite tariff confusion, markets have avoided major selloffs. XTB's Kathleen Brooks suggested the situation may favor European equities over US markets and contribute to continued dollar weakness. The potential for corporate refunds from previously ruled-illegal tariffs could offset new levy impacts.

Key Economic Data:

Friday's US Producer Price Index (PPI) for January headlines economic releases. Analysts expect modest increases in headline and core PPI, with particular focus on components feeding into the core PCE deflator—the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge.

Federal Reserve Activity:

Multiple Fed officials speak this week, including Governor Christopher Waller (Monday and Tuesday keynotes), alongside Chicago's Austan Goolsbee, Boston's Susan Collins, Atlanta's Raphael Bostic, and Richmond's Thomas Barkin. Remarks will provide insight on inflation, labor markets, and AI's employment impact.

Corporate Earnings:

Nvidia reports quarterly results February 25 after market close, with analysts anticipating robust revenue and net income growth driven by AI demand.

Geopolitical Factors:

President Trump's State of the Union address Tuesday could influence markets. Brent crude trades above $71/barrel, with geopolitical developments potentially impacting prices.