General Market News

President Trump announced an immediate increase in global tariffs from 10% to 15%, marking a significant escalation in trade policy. The tariff hike takes effect immediately, impacting international trade across all affected countries. This represents a 50% increase in the baseline tariff rate on global imports.

• Tariffs increased from 10% to 15%, representing a 5 percentage point rise that takes effect immediately without a phase-in period
• The measure applies globally, affecting all countries subject to the baseline tariff structure
• This follows recent Supreme Court activity related to Trump's tariff policies, as indicated by trending related articles

Investment professionals warn that retail investors responding to market volatility by shifting to income-focused strategies like dividend stocks and bonds may be sacrificing returns. Nick Ryder of Kathmere Capital Management and Christian Magoon of Amplify ETFs argue that a total return approach based on goals and risk tolerance outperforms yield-chasing strategies over the long term.

• Kathmere Capital's CIO cautions that income-first investing 'leaves a lot on the table' and can push portfolios into unintended risk exposures, such as moving from investment-grade to high-yield bonds
• Experts recommend a total return-oriented approach starting with investor goals and risk tolerance rather than leading with income generation
• Amplify ETFs' CEO warns against 'yield traps' where investors chase maximum yield without considering capital appreciation potential

The Supreme Court struck down a large portion of President Trump's tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, affecting about 60% of his tariff measures. While the decision was expected, uncertainty remains about economic impacts, potential refunds of $85-175 billion in collected tariffs, and Trump's next moves, as he vowed to continue pursuing tariffs through other legal authorities. The ruling provides modest relief on inflation and market volatility, though Trump has already signaled plans to reimpose tariffs using alternative provisions.

• Economic impact expected to be limited with growth likely above-trend in Q1 2026; retail and manufacturing sectors are potential major beneficiaries from tariff removal
• Tariff refunds estimated between $85-175 billion remain unresolved, with analysts skeptical the government will pay retroactively as the issue works through lower courts
• Markets rallied on the news but Federal Reserve rate cut expectations remained largely unchanged, with traders still pricing in two cuts in 2026; about 40% of Trump's tariffs remain in place

Small cap stocks, tracked by the Russell 2000 Index and IWM ETF, are showing leadership while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ struggle below their 50-day moving averages. However, momentum indicators for small caps are declining even as prices hold steady, creating a divergence that could signal the broader market's next directional move. The performance of small caps in coming sessions may determine whether the overall equity market continues its risk appetite or faces increased downside pressure.

• Russell 2000/IWM is holding its 50-day moving average and remains bullish while S&P 500 and NASDAQ trade below this key technical level
• A bearish divergence has emerged: IWM momentum has already fallen below its 50-day moving average even though price remains above, potentially serving as an early warning signal
• If small caps maintain their bullish structure and momentum recovers, it could lift broader indexes; if price confirms weakening momentum, it may signal increased risk across all equities

The Supreme Court struck down President Trump's tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act in a 6-3 ruling, but tariffs enacted under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 remain in effect. Industries including automotive, furniture, steel and aluminum, and semiconductors continue facing tariffs ranging from 10% to 50%, impacting major manufacturers and potentially raising consumer prices.

• Automotive sector still faces 25% tariffs on foreign vehicles and parts, with some countries like UK and Japan negotiating reductions to 10-15%; major automakers like GM and Ford report multi-billion dollar charges ($2-4 billion annually)
• Steel and aluminum tariffs remain at 50%, affecting home appliances, electronics, and beverage can producers, while furniture faces 25% tariffs set to increase to 100%
• Semiconductors face 25% tariffs effective last month, and pharmaceuticals could face tariffs up to 250% unless drugmakers increase US production, though nine major companies secured exemptions by agreeing to lower prices

The U.S. Supreme Court struck down Donald Trump's tariffs imposed under national emergency powers, ruling that only Congress has authority over taxation. While the decision reduces the average U.S. trade-weighted tariff from 15.3% to 8.3%, Trump immediately announced a new 10% global tariff under different legal authority, maintaining trade uncertainty and leaving the rules-based international economic architecture fractured.

• The ruling will reduce tariffs on China from 36.8% to 21.2%, on Brazil from 26.3% to 6.8%, and on Japan from 14.9% to 9.9% on a trade-weighted basis
• The invalidated tariffs collected about $120 billion, or 0.5% of GDP, creating a budget hole that Trump seeks to fill with alternative measures
• Trump responded by invoking Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act for a new 10% blanket global tariff, though this requires congressional approval to extend beyond 150 days

U.S. consumer spending rose 0.4% in December 2025 despite slowing wage growth of just 0.2%, the weakest since June. Households are shifting expenditures from goods to services while GDP growth decelerated to 1.4% in Q4 2025. The data reveals continued but more cautious consumer activity anchored by credit and buy-now-pay-later financing, particularly among younger workers facing stagnant incomes.

• Spending on services jumped 0.7% while goods spending fell 0.1%, marking the first decline in six months as households reallocate budgets toward housing, healthcare, and travel.
• Labor Economy workers (earning $25/hour or less) drive $1.7 trillion in annual spending but only 29.4% expect financial improvement in 2026, with half anticipating flat wages and rising expenses.
• BNPL usage among bridge millennials surged 56% to 25% in December, with 42% also using credit card installment plans, demonstrating financing tools as core budget infrastructure rather than occasional assistance.

Businesses and industry groups responded to the U.S. Supreme Court's decision to block Donald Trump's emergency tariffs, expressing relief at the ruling while acknowledging uncertainty ahead. The decision found Trump's method of imposing tariffs illegal, though tariffs themselves remain permissible through proper legal processes. Companies now face a complicated refund process and continued unpredictability in trade policy.

• The Supreme Court ruled Trump's method of imposing tariffs illegal, not tariffs themselves, requiring clear definitive reasons for future implementation
• Industry leaders across apparel, retail, wine & spirits, and baby products emphasized the need for predictable, rule-of-law compliant trade policy to support business and investment decisions
• A major challenge ahead involves processing refunds through intermediaries like DHL and FedEx who paid tariffs on behalf of customers, potentially leading to litigation and tension

JPMorgan warns that the Trump administration could be forced to refund $150-200 billion in tariffs to US businesses following a Supreme Court ruling. The bank's economist Michael Feroli cautioned that even if tariffs are reimposed under different legal authority, the uncertainty and restructuring would create significant economic disruption and increase the fiscal deficit.

• Major corporations including Costco, J.Crew, Crocs, Goodyear, and EssilorLuxottica have filed lawsuits seeking tariff refunds, with lower courts now determining actual refund amounts and timing
• JPMorgan forecasts the fiscal deficit could rise to 6.6% of GDP in 2026 (roughly $2.1 trillion), a half-point increase, due to potential refunds and economic disruption
• Administration officials vowed to 'recreate the exact tariff structure' using other legal authorities, but JPMorgan warns this realignment would still create winners and losers while significantly increasing trade policy uncertainty

A coalition of over 800 small businesses called We Pay the Tariffs is demanding full refunds after the Supreme Court struck down President Trump's global tariffs in a 6-3 decision on Friday. Trump rejected the refund idea, promising to impose a new 10% global tariff and predicting years of litigation over the issue.

• The Supreme Court's decision did not address whether the government must repay tariff revenue already collected, leaving the refund question unresolved
• The US collected $289 billion in tariff and certain excise tax revenue last year, compared to $98 billion in 2024
• Small business members of the coalition, including restaurants, manufacturers and retailers, report the tariffs caused layoffs and halted growth plans

The Supreme Court struck down President Trump's tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act in a 6-3 ruling, finding they were imposed illegally. The decision could trigger up to $175 billion in refunds to importers, though the Court provided no guidance on the refund process and the Trump administration has not committed to issuing refunds, suggesting the matter will be litigated for years.

• Nonpartisan estimates suggest $150-200 billion in potential refunds, representing nearly three-fourths of Trump's tariff revenues through February 2025
• Over 1,000 lawsuits have already been filed at the U.S. Court of International Trade by importers seeking refunds, with the process expected to take months to years
• Trump declined to commit to providing refunds and criticized the ruling as 'defective,' while Treasury Secretary Bessent warned the refund process could take over a year and questioned whether companies would pass savings to consumers

US GDP growth slowed sharply to 1.4% in Q4 2025, missing expectations of 2.5%, while the Fed's preferred inflation measure (PCE) rose to 2.9% in December, above the 2.7% forecast. The combination of weak growth and persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target is expected to delay further interest rate cuts.

• Full-year 2025 US economic growth was 2.2%, down from 2.8% in 2024, with Q4's 1.4% rate representing a sharp decline from Q3's 4.4% rate
• Core PCE inflation remained at 3% year-over-year, still significantly above the Fed's 2% target, indicating stalled progress on reducing inflation
• The government shutdown contributed to the slowdown, causing federal spending to plunge 16.6%, though some analysts estimate GDP would have been closer to 2.4% without the shutdown impact

President Trump announced a new 10% global tariff via executive order on Friday, hours after the Supreme Court struck down his 'reciprocal' import duties. The new tariffs will be layered on top of existing levies that remain in place following the Court's ruling, which represented a major rebuke of his trade agenda.

• The Supreme Court struck down Trump's sweeping 'reciprocal' tariff program in a significant legal defeat for the administration
• The new 10% global tariff will be imposed above normal tariff rates and existing levies that were not affected by the Court's decision
• Trump announced the retaliatory tariff measure during a White House press briefing where he expressed anger over the Supreme Court ruling

U.S. stock markets showed mixed performance this past week, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rising but remaining below key technical levels amid concerns over potential Iran military action and Supreme Court tariff rulings. Economic data revealed weak Q4 GDP growth of 1.4% (down from 4.4% in Q3) but hot core PCE inflation returning to 3%, dampening Federal Reserve rate cut expectations for the first half of 2026.

• Market odds of a Fed rate cut by June 17 dropped to 52% from 69% a week earlier after core PCE inflation hit 3% in December, the highest since February
• Walmart beat Q4 earnings expectations with 12% EPS growth and 24% e-commerce sales growth, but guided lower on fiscal Q1 and 2027 earnings, dragging on the Dow
• Nvidia announced a multiyear partnership to supply Meta with millions of Blackwell and Rubin AI chips ahead of its February 25 earnings report, while heavy construction firms and chipmakers delivered strong results driven by AI data center demand

The US Supreme Court has struck down approximately half of Trump's tariffs, ruling that those imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) are unconstitutional. The decision challenges the president's unilateral tariff authority and may force the administration to refund money collected under the 'Liberation Day' tariffs, though Trump could attempt to reimpose levies using other legal loopholes.

• About half of Trump's tariffs, specifically those imposed under the IEEPA for 'Liberation Day', are now null and void following the Supreme Court ruling
• The administration may be required to refund part or all of the money collected under these now-invalidated tariffs
• The ruling comes as Trump's poll ratings slump partly due to tariff unpopularity, though the White House may attempt to reimpose levies using other legal loopholes like Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act

The Supreme Court struck down President Trump's sweeping international trade tariffs, ruling he lacked authority under the International Economic Emergency Powers Act to impose them unilaterally. Trump called the decision 'deeply disappointing' and said he was 'ashamed' of the court majority, vowing to pursue tariffs through other legal avenues despite likely facing renewed court challenges.

• The ruling invalidated the centerpiece of Trump's economic agenda, with the court determining he exceeded his emergency powers authority
• Trump pledged to maintain national security tariffs and seek alternative routes, citing Justice Brett Kavanaugh's dissent and potential Congressional authorization
• Replicating the tariff scope through Congress or other trade legislation appears highly unlikely and would face additional legal challenges

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan stated that monetary policy is 'well positioned' to handle economic risks, though she remains concerned about inflation reaching the Fed's 2% target. She expressed cautious optimism about the inflation path but noted uncertainties from tariffs and a recent Supreme Court decision are complicating the outlook.

• Logan is 'not fully convinced' the economy is on a clear pathway to the 2% inflation target despite current monetary policy stance
• Tariffs continue to work through the economic system, adding uncertainty to inflation projections
• A recent Supreme Court decision on tariffs has introduced additional uncertainty to the economic outlook

The US Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that Trump exceeded his authority by imposing sweeping tariffs without congressional approval, finding his use of the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act illegal. The decision affects tariffs generating an estimated $240-300 billion in revenue last year, with potential refunds owed to US importers who bore most costs. Trump called the ruling a 'disgrace' and experts say he will likely use alternative legal mechanisms to continue his tariff strategy.

• The court struck down tariffs Trump imposed under emergency powers on dozens of countries including the UK, China, Canada, Mexico, and EU nations, affirming lower court rulings
• Experts say Trump will pivot to other tariff authorities like section 232 (targeted sector tariffs with EU steel at 50%) or section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act (allowing 15% surcharges for 150 days)
• Refunds of $240-300 billion paid mostly by US firms and consumers could be owed but are 'not likely to be paid back soon,' with Justice Kavanaugh calling the process a 'mess'

The Supreme Court struck down President Trump's signature tariff policy in a 6-3 ruling, determining that the statute used to justify his biggest tariffs does not actually authorize those import duties. Trump is scheduled to hold a White House press briefing to respond to this significant legal setback, which undermines his ability to unilaterally impose tariffs without Congress.

• The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that the legal statute Trump cited does not authorize his major tariff programs
• The ruling represents a significant loss for Trump, whose economic and foreign policy relied heavily on his claimed power to impose tariffs unilaterally
• Trump announced a White House press briefing scheduled for 12:45 p.m. ET, approximately two hours after the court's decision

Markets in 2025 defied recession fears, with global equities hitting all-time highs as investors learned to distinguish political noise from economic signals. International equities outperformed U.S. markets by over 14%, gold surged 64%, and correlations between asset classes normalized, strengthening the case for global diversification. Looking to 2026, the landscape features higher structural inflation, dispersed risks, and concerns about AI capital misallocation as easy post-pandemic returns are exhausted.

• Gold returned 64% in 2025, vastly outperforming Bitcoin (-6%) and establishing itself as a more reliable portfolio diversifier despite questions about the sustainability of such gains.
• The Fed cut rates 75 basis points, but long-term yields remained elevated (10-year at 4.18%) as investors demanded compensation for inflation risk and fiscal uncertainty, steeping the yield curve.
• AI capital expenditure reached $360 billion in 2025 with projections of $3-5 trillion over five years, but rapid depreciation (processing power improved 30x in four years) poses significant risk to debt-financed infrastructure.
• International market correlations with the U.S. fell to healthier levels (developed markets ~0.7, China ~0.2), while private equity returns are converging toward public markets as capital inflows reduce the illiquidity premium.