Video Analysis

The market outlook is clouded by tariff uncertainty and geopolitical risks, despite mixed factory orders data. Volatility is expected to remain elevated, with crude oil prices rising due to supply concerns and seasonal demand shifts. Investors are advised to remain cautious as trade tensions and global events continue to influence market direction.

• December factory orders missed expectations, contracting by 0.7%, but are not seen as a major market mover.
• Tariffs and geopolitical risks, particularly involving Iran and the US, are creating significant market uncertainty and are expected to drive continued volatility.
• Crude oil prices are rallying due to geopolitical risks (Strait of Hormuz) and positive fundamental factors like lower inventory levels and the transition to summer blend gasoline.

The European Union is demanding clarity from the U.S. regarding potential tariffs under a future Trump administration. EU Commission Spokesperson Olaf Gill stated that this clarity is essential for the EU to make a clear-eyed assessment and decide on next steps, indicating that current engagement is insufficient to understand the full picture.

• The EU is requesting clarity from the U.S. on potential tariffs under a future Trump administration.
• This clarity is needed for the EU to assess the situation and determine its next steps.
• Despite ongoing engagement, the EU feels it lacks a full understanding of the U.S. position on tariffs.

Darryl White, CEO of BMO, observes a subdued market reaction to recent tariff news, attributing it to the outcome being priced into bond markets and corporates adapting with resilient supply chains. He highlights a massive demand surge for metals, driven by AI and global reorganization, which will eventually face supply bottlenecks. White emphasizes the critical need for regulatory reform and expedited permitting for domestic production, noting positive developments in the US.

• Market reaction to recent tariff decisions has been subdued, with outcomes largely priced into bond markets.
• Corporates have adapted to tariff instability by rebuilding supply chains and enhancing resiliency.
• A significant demand push for metals, driven by AI and global order reorganization, is anticipated to create supply bottlenecks.
• Regulatory reform and expedited permitting for domestic production, particularly in the US, are active and important conversations with positive developments.

The European Union is freezing the ratification process of its trade deal with the US due to President Trump's new tariff plan, seeking more details from the administration. This move, coupled with India canceling a trade trip, signals growing international concern and the strongest reaction yet from US trading partners to the escalating tariff risks.

• President Trump's new tariff plan is causing fresh concerns among US trading partners.
• The EU is set to freeze US trade deal approval, awaiting more details from the Trump administration.
• This is the 'strongest reaction yet' from US trading partners, with India also canceling a planned trade trip to Washington D.C.
• Trump's representatives are attempting to reassure trade partners and reaffirm existing trade deals.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller's comments indicate a balanced view on future monetary policy, with a potential tilt towards a pause if labor market data improves, or even cuts if weakness continues. He expresses skepticism about the January jobs report, calling it 'more noise than signal,' and notes uncertainty regarding the impact of tariffs on the economy, though he expects to 'look through' their effect on inflation.

• Fed Governor Waller is 'on the fence' about a March rate hike or pause, stating that improving labor market data may tilt policy toward a pause.
• Conversely, Waller suggests there 'could be equal argument for cutting if jobs weakness continues,' highlighting the importance of upcoming data.
• He has concerns that the January jobs report 'may contain more noise than signal' and emphasizes that 'one month of good news is not a trend.'
• Waller believes a Supreme Court ruling on tariffs 'may have positive impact on spending, investment' but notes 'considerable uncertainty' on their continuation and impact on inflation.

The panel discusses retail trading trends, focusing on NVIDIA's upcoming earnings and its broader impact on the AI 'food chain.' They also delve into the political implications of AI buildout and potential trade policy shifts, particularly tariffs, ahead of the State of the Union address. While NVIDIA earnings are expected to be strong, political uncertainties and market volatility remain key concerns.

• Retail trading activity is concentrated in NVIDIA, Tesla, and Micron, with significant derivatives market action.
• NVIDIA's earnings are front and center, with expectations for strong performance driven by AI, data centers, and improved supply chains.
• Political questions around AI, including potential regulation and job displacement, are percolating and expected to be discussed in the State of the Union.
• Trade policy, particularly tariffs, and immigration are highlighted as deeply unpopular core issues for the current administration, creating market uncertainty.

Former FDA Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb discusses the limited impact of the SCOTUS tariff ruling on the pharmaceutical industry, noting existing deals with drugmakers. He provides a bullish outlook on Eli Lilly's weight-loss drug pipeline, highlighting its 'best in class' status and future potential, while implying a less favorable view for Novo Nordisk's competing drug.

• Tariffs are unlikely to be reimposed on drugmakers due to existing agreements with the administration and their inefficiency in reshoring manufacturing.
• Eli Lilly's current weight-loss drug (Tirzepatide) is considered 'best in class,' with a strong pipeline including a potentially more effective 'triple G' compound and upcoming data readouts.
• Novo Nordisk's weight-loss drug is implied to be less effective compared to Eli Lilly's, and its stock chart is shown declining.
• Weight-loss drugs may also reduce cravings for other substances like alcohol, with studies underway to explore this effect.

The discussion revolves around a Supreme Court decision ruling certain tariffs unlawful, leading to expectations of refunds for affected businesses. The CEO of Learning Resources expresses confidence in receiving these refunds with interest, highlighting the government's capability in managing financial transactions.

• The Supreme Court ruled that certain tariffs were unlawfully imposed.
• Businesses that paid these tariffs expect to receive refunds with interest.
• The specific mechanism for distributing these refunds to businesses is yet to be decided.

The discussion centers on the economic impact of evolving tariff policies, noting that while some emergency tariffs are ending, new ones are anticipated. This creates significant uncertainty for businesses and households, potentially leading to continued economic burdens and legal challenges, despite some expectations of slightly less inflation and a reduced hit to growth this year.

• The Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariffs was seen as welcome news, but the overall economic pain from tariffs is far from over.
• Trump tariffs previously amounted to an average tax increase of $1,000 per US household in 2025; remaining new tariffs are projected to result in a $700 burden in 2026.
• Economists anticipate somewhat less inflation and a reduced hit to growth this year, but the overall impact of tariffs will still be felt.
• Businesses are expected to face renewed uncertainty over future tariff rates and may not lower prices previously raised due to tariffs.
• National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett publicly apologized for suggesting discipline for NY Fed researchers who found US consumers and businesses paid 90% of tariffs.
• The administration's intent to replace tariffs one-for-one suggests the policy outlook for interest rates is unlikely to change.
• Potential legal challenges to new tariff authorities (like Section 122, Section 232, Section 301) are expected, adding to business uncertainty.

CNBC's Andrew Ross Sorkin reports on five key topics including the cessation of 'reciprocal tariffs' by US Customs and a new 15% global tax, operational TSA pre-check during the government shutdown, a crucial meeting between the Defense Secretary and Anthropic CEO regarding military AI use, Goldman Sachs' raised oil price forecasts, and British Film Award results. The discussion highlights the complexities of AI deployment and its implications.

• US Customs will stop collecting 'reciprocal tariffs', with the President imposing a new 15% global tax for 150 days.
• TSA pre-check airport screening lanes remain operational despite the government shutdown, a reversal from earlier statements.
• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is scheduled to meet with Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei to discuss terms for military use of Claude AI, with potential for a contentious discussion over usage rights.
• Goldman Sachs raised its year-end oil price forecasts for Brent Crude to $60 and WTI to $56, assuming no Iran-related supply disruptions.
• The film 'One Battle After Another' won Best Film and Best Director at the British Film Awards, seen as a potential indicator for the Academy Awards.

Jason Katz, UBS Senior Portfolio Manager, discusses recent economic data, downplaying the 4Q GDP miss due to a government shutdown and noting slightly hotter PCE inflation complicates rapid rate cuts. He expresses a bullish outlook on the economy, viewing AI as a margin enhancer and recommending investment in cyclical stocks while cautioning against short-term speculation in metals.

• 4Q GDP came in at 1.4%, below 3% expectations, attributed partly to a government shutdown, with minimal long-term effects expected.
• December PCE inflation was slightly hotter than expected (M/M +0.4%, Y/Y +2.9%), complicating the 'rapid rate cut' narrative but still supporting 1-2 cuts.
• AI is seen as a margin enhancer and a long-term investment opportunity, not a business replacement, with significant CapEx from hyperscalers like NVIDIA.
• Recommends investing in cyclical parts of the market due to a strong underlying economy and advises caution regarding 'memification' and short-term 'fast money' in metals like gold and silver.

The video discusses the global reaction to the Trump tariff ruling, with major economies expressing concern and uncertainty. China views the unilateral measures as violating international and domestic US laws, while Germany anticipates hampered investment and supply chain decisions. Other nations like Japan, South Korea, and the EU are taking cautious or defensive stances, seeking clarity and aiming to protect their economic interests.

• China's Ministry of Commerce is making a comprehensive assessment, stating US unilateral measures violate international and domestic US laws.
• Japanese officials believe the ruling will not affect US projects beneficial to Japan; Korea's trade minister will consult with the US to maintain investment balance.
• India's planned three-day visit to Washington DC has been indefinitely postponed.
• The European Commission expects the US to honor commitments and not increase tariffs, while Germany's industry warns of uncertainty and hampered investment/supply chain decisions.

The discussion highlights market uncertainty stemming from US policy shifts, particularly regarding trade, which could weaken the dollar and delay economic growth. Nvidia's upcoming earnings are identified as crucial for the US tech sector and overall growth, while Chinese markets are expected to see a positive rebound post-Lunar New Year, driven by consumer spending and tech innovation.

• US policy uncertainty, including potential 'balance of payments crisis' and 'changing mind' on trade, is seen as negative for the dollar and long-term investment, potentially holding back US growth.
• Nvidia's 4Q earnings are critical, as fixed income markets are watching for signals on AI and data center build-out, which is a significant driver of US growth.
• Chinese markets are anticipated to open strong after the Lunar New Year, supported by positive holiday spending reports and a firm offshore Yuan, with tech and robotics sectors expected to lead.

President Trump is raising the global tariff rate from 10% to 15%, effective Tuesday, for a temporary 150-day period. This move introduces significant uncertainty for US trading partners, forcing them to re-evaluate existing bilateral trade deals and future negotiations. The changes impact countries differently based on their prior tariff rates, leading to widespread confusion.

• The global tariff rate will increase from 10% to 15% on Tuesday, lasting for 150 days.
• This short-term tariff creates 'a lot of questions' for trading partners regarding the continuation of negotiations and long-term strategies.
• Countries like Australia and the UK, previously at 10%, will see a 50% increase in their tariff rate, while existing bilateral trade deals and sectoral tariffs are also impacted.

The video discusses the implications of former US President Donald Trump's new 15% global tariff following a Supreme Court ruling against his previous reciprocal levies. European officials are urging the US to honor existing trade pacts, while some French ministers suggest potential retaliation. The market reaction is mixed, with concerns about global trade uncertainty and liquidity in private markets.

• US President Donald Trump imposed a new 15% global tariff after the Supreme Court struck down his earlier reciprocal levies.
• European officials expect the US to honor trade agreements, with some suggesting potential retaliatory measures if commitments are not met.
• The Supreme Court's decision, which was not split on ideological lines, is seen as a significant check on presidential power.
• Concerns were raised about a potential liquidity crunch in private markets following Blue Owl Capital's asset sales.
• European markets, particularly luxury and export-oriented sectors like the CAC 40, showed resilience and even record highs despite the trade tensions, while US futures were under pressure.

European officials are reacting with caution and concern to the US Supreme Court's tariff ruling, calling for clarity and a united EU response. While some French luxury stocks saw gains due to existing exemptions, German industry warns of increased uncertainty, highlighting potential disruptions to trade and investment decisions.

• US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer states the US stands by existing trade deals and expects partners to do the same.
• The European Commission emphasizes that it will not accept any increase in US tariffs beyond agreed levels.
• ECB President Christine Lagarde stresses the critical need for clarity on future trade relationships to avoid business disruptions.
• Germany's Merz warns of the 'poison' of uncertainty for German industry and pledges a joint European position.
• French luxury and drinks stocks (LVMH, Hermes, Pernod Ricard, Remy Cointreau) saw gains as they are less affected by the ruling due to existing tariff exemptions.

The video discusses President Trump's proposed global tariffs, raising the rate to 15% from 10%. Dawn Shackleford, President of Looking Glass Trade, analyzes the legal basis of these tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act and their potential economic impact on various countries and the U.S. economy. She anticipates legal challenges and highlights the role of Congress in future tariff policy.

• The proposed global tariffs could create 'winners and losers' among trading partners, with countries like Brazil and India potentially seeing a relative reduction in their tariff rates compared to those previously subject to 10% tariffs.
• U.S. manufacturers, farmers, and consumers are expected to face challenges, including increased input costs, retaliatory tariffs on exports, and higher prices.
• The legality of using Section 122 of the Trade Act for these tariffs is questioned, as it's typically reserved for 'balance of payments crises,' which the U.S. currently does not face. Legal challenges are anticipated both domestically and internationally.
• The timing of the 150-day period for these tariffs coincides with election season, potentially influencing congressional decisions on extending these tariffs or pursuing other trade actions like Section 301 and 232 investigations.

Francis Tan of Indosuez Wealth Management believes global trade is more resilient to US tariffs due to strengthened international linkages, leading markets to quickly digest tariff news. He is bullish on gold, raising its forecast to $5,500/oz as a portfolio hedge against ongoing geopolitical volatility. He expects the Fed to implement only one rate cut this year, anticipating no immediate US recession.

• Markets are becoming accustomed to US tariff news, with global trade linkages outside the US strengthening and buffering against impacts.
• Indosuez Wealth Management raises its spot gold forecast to $5,500/oz, citing persistent geopolitical risks and central bank demand.
• The firm expects the Fed to cut rates only once this year, unless employment data severely disappoints, and does not foresee a US recession.

The segment discusses Goldman Sachs' decision to scrap Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) criteria for its board selection, a move seen by some panelists as a return to meritocracy. While panelists express approval of the shift, questions are raised about the sincerity and potential broader implications for corporate governance and hiring practices across other firms.

• Goldman Sachs is reportedly removing DEI criteria for its board of directors, as reported by the WSJ.
• Panelists generally view this as a positive step towards merit-based qualifications for board positions, with one stating 'meritocracy is back.'
• Concerns are raised about whether other companies, including those previously influenced by Goldman Sachs' DEI policies, will genuinely follow suit or merely rebrand their approaches.

Andrew Graham discusses December PCE and 4Q GDP, noting they are 'rear view mirror' data potentially impacted by the government shutdown. He emphasizes higher frequency data indicating cooling inflation and expects core PCE to approach 2% by year-end. He sees a broadening market with cyclical acceleration and recommends staying invested in a bull market.

• December PCE and 4Q GDP data are considered backward-looking and potentially obscured by the government shutdown.
• Higher frequency data suggests inflation is cooling, with core PCE expected to approach the Fed's 2% target by year-end.
• The market is broadening out with cyclical acceleration, driven by strong earnings and revenue growth.
• Andrew Graham's stock picks include Eli Lilly (LLY), Coherent Corp (COHR), and Amphenol (APH), with a mention of Arista (ANET).