Graham: Both GDP & PCE "Rear View Mirror" Prints

Schwab Network | February 22, 2026 at 06:16 PM UTC
Bullish 85% Confidence
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Key Points

  • December PCE and 4Q GDP data are considered backward-looking and potentially obscured by the government shutdown.
  • Higher frequency data suggests inflation is cooling, with core PCE expected to approach the Fed's 2% target by year-end.
  • The market is broadening out with cyclical acceleration, driven by strong earnings and revenue growth.
  • Andrew Graham's stock picks include Eli Lilly (LLY), Coherent Corp (COHR), and Amphenol (APH), with a mention of Arista (ANET).

AI Summary

Andrew Graham discusses December PCE and 4Q GDP, noting they are 'rear view mirror' data potentially impacted by the government shutdown. He emphasizes higher frequency data indicating cooling inflation and expects core PCE to approach 2% by year-end. He sees a broadening market with cyclical acceleration and recommends staying invested in a bull market.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bullish 85%
Consensus Bullish 85%