This complicates the 'rapid cut' narrative, Jason Katz says

• 4Q GDP came in at 1.4%, below 3% expectations, attributed partly to a government shutdown, with minimal long-term effects expected.
• December PCE inflation was slightly hotter than expected (M/M +0.4%, Y/Y +2.9%), complicating the 'rapid rate cut' narrative but still supporting 1-2 cuts.
• AI is seen as a margin enhancer and a long-term investment opportunity, not a business replacement, with significant CapEx from hyperscalers like NVIDIA.
• Recommends investing in cyclical parts of the market due to a strong underlying economy and advises caution regarding 'memification' and short-term 'fast money' in metals like gold and silver.

Jason Katz, UBS Senior Portfolio Manager, discusses recent economic data, downplaying the 4Q GDP miss due to a government shutdown and noting slightly hotter PCE inflation complicates rapid rate cuts. He expresses a bullish outlook on the economy, viewing AI as a margin enhancer and recommending investment in cyclical stocks while cautioning against short-term speculation in metals.