General Market News

Ted Oakley of Oxbow Advisors warns that U.S. markets face a dangerous disconnect between AI-driven tech euphoria and deteriorating consumer finances, as the 30-year Treasury yield hits 5.18% - levels unseen since the 2008 financial crisis. Credit card delinquencies have reached 11%, matching crisis-era levels, while auto loan delinquencies are even higher, contradicting Wall Street's optimistic consumer outlook.

• U.S. household credit card balances hit a record $1.28 trillion by end of 2025, with serious delinquencies (90+ days overdue) surging to 11%, returning to levels last seen over a decade ago.
• Tech firms are expected to spend $725 billion on AI infrastructure this year, but Oakley believes investors are ignoring the physical commodities and power grid requirements needed to support this buildout.
• Oakley recommends energy stocks (currently only 3% of S&P 500 versus 32% in early 1980s) and gold mining equities, warning gold may need a $500 drop to flush out momentum buyers before becoming a buying opportunity near $4,000.

Blockchain.com, a cryptocurrency platform founded in 2011, has confidentially filed for a U.S. IPO, marking another potential public market debut from the digital asset sector. The company has not disclosed pricing, share count, or timing for the offering. Blockchain.com provides wallets, exchange services, and blockchain infrastructure tools, claiming to have processed over $1.2 trillion in transactions.

• The confidential filing allows the company to prepare for the IPO away from public scrutiny before disclosing detailed financial information and offering plans
• Blockchain.com operates multiple services including cryptocurrency wallets (custodial and non-custodial), a trading exchange, institutional OTC trading, and the widely-used Blockchain Explorer tool
• The platform claims to have hosted tens of millions of wallets and processed more than $1.2 trillion in transactions across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other networks

US stock indices fell on Thursday, with the S&P 500 down 0.48%, Nasdaq declining 0.56%, and Dow dropping 242 points (0.49%), as rising oil prices and Treasury yields reignited inflation concerns amid renewed Iran tensions. Nvidia's strong earnings and $80 billion buyback failed to lift sentiment, while investors weighed geopolitical risks and mixed corporate results.

• WTI crude jumped 2.9% to $101.04 per barrel and Brent rose 2.3% to $107.36 after Iran's Supreme Leader reportedly directed enriched uranium remain in-country, reversing Wednesday's optimism over nuclear negotiations
• The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 5 basis points to 4.615% as higher oil prices intensified inflation worries and complicated the Federal Reserve's policy outlook
• Nvidia stock fell despite beating earnings, announcing an $80 billion buyback, and raising its dividend to 25 cents per share, as investors questioned growth sustainability amid intensifying AI chip competition

UBS has raised its 2026 global equities earnings growth forecast from 12% to 20%, driven by strong corporate results and resilient fundamentals despite the US-Iran conflict disrupting Middle East oil transit. The bank set a December 2026 target of 1,410 for the MSCI All Country World Index and maintained its 'attractive' rating on global equities, which have hit fresh all-time highs.

• Half the earnings upgrade stems from technology sectors benefiting from compute shortages and memory bottlenecks, with AI-related capital spending expected to grow nearly 70% this year and 20% next year
• Energy sector accounts for 25% of the upgrade due to rising oil and gas prices from Strait of Hormuz disruptions caused by the Iran conflict
• UBS warns of three key risks: timing of Strait of Hormuz reopening, potential inflation and bond yield increases undermining valuations, and intensifying tech sector competition; sees downside target of 935 if Middle East conflict escalates

Stock futures pointed lower Thursday as investors digested earnings from Nvidia and Walmart following the previous day's sharp gains in major indexes. Oil prices rose over 2% to $100.50 per barrel amid tensions over Iran's nuclear negotiations, while Treasury yields edged up to 4.62%.

• Nvidia reported record $81.8 billion quarterly revenue but shares were flat as strong results failed to exceed high market expectations driven by continued AI infrastructure spending
• Walmart stock slipped despite beating revenue forecasts due to sluggish guidance, while Intuit shares tumbled after announcing layoffs despite posting better-than-expected earnings
• SpaceX filed its IPO prospectus revealing $18.67 billion in revenue last year alongside a $4.94 billion net loss, setting up one of 2025's most anticipated market debuts

The Magnificent Seven tech companies reported quarterly earnings that reinforced investor confidence in AI investments despite economic uncertainties. Nvidia led with exceptional revenue growth while the group collectively ramped up debt issuance to $134 billion in 2025 to fund AI infrastructure buildouts. The earnings suggest the market's concentration in megacap tech stocks is supported by fundamentals, though rising capital expenditures may pressure future shareholder returns.

• Nvidia's revenue growth significantly outpaces its Magnificent Seven peers, maintaining its position as the world's most valuable company driven by AI infrastructure demand
• Bond issuance by the group jumped to $134 billion in 2025 (through May), already surpassing the full-year 2024 total of $87.5 billion, with Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta leading the borrowing spree
• S&P 500 capital expenditure is forecast to grow 33% in 2026 compared to just 3% growth in buybacks, indicating potential reduction in shareholder returns as companies prioritize AI investments

US stock indices showed limited movement in early Thursday trading on May 21, 2026, as markets consolidated following a recent bullish run. The Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones 30, and S&P 500 all displayed choppy, sideways price action as investors navigated earnings season and concerns about rising interest rates, particularly their impact on technology stocks.

• The Nasdaq 100 is consolidating above 28,500 as extreme swings in interest rates create headwinds for tech stocks, though the analyst maintains a bullish long-term outlook
• The Dow Jones 30 attempted to break above 50,000 with potential resistance at 50,500, while support is identified near 49,300
• The S&P 500 is treading water with key support levels at 7,350 and 7,300, and a short-term ceiling at 7,500, with sideways consolidation viewed as healthy after the recent rally

US stock futures declined Thursday morning, with Dow futures down 167 points, as investors awaited Walmart earnings for consumer demand signals and weighed Middle East tensions. Nvidia's announcement of an $80 billion buyback failed to lift broader market sentiment, while Intuit shares slumped after cutting guidance and announcing a 17% workforce reduction.

• S&P 500 futures fell 0.4% and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.6%, with Nvidia's $80 billion buyback announcement failing to trigger a broader market rally despite the stock gaining nearly 20% year-to-date
• Walmart earnings are expected to provide critical insights into US consumer spending health amid inflation concerns, serving as a key gauge for broader retail demand trends
• Markets are pricing in a 40% probability of at least a 25 basis point Fed rate hike by year-end as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.582% on persistent Middle East inflation worries

Quantum computing stocks rallied following reports that the U.S. government plans to award approximately $2 billion to quantum computing companies while taking equity stakes in these firms. The Wall Street Journal first reported on these deals, which represent a significant government investment in the emerging quantum computing sector.

• The U.S. government will take equity positions in quantum computing companies as part of the $2 billion award program
• The initiative signals federal commitment to advancing quantum computing technology and maintaining competitive advantage in the sector
• Quantum computing stocks experienced significant gains on the news of the government investment program

Nvidia reported nearly doubled sales year-over-year and announced an $80 billion stock buyback, but the market response was muted. The broader market mood improved on falling oil prices as crude settled around $105/barrel amid reports of possible Iran war resolution. IPO filings from OpenAI and SpaceX boosted tech sentiment, with chipmakers rallying globally.

• Nvidia modestly beat revenue forecasts and lifted its dividend, but shares dropped 2%, though global chipmakers rallied with Samsung surging 7%
• Oil prices retreated to around $105/barrel on reports of supertankers clearing the Hormuz strait and hopes for an Iran war deal, helping lift the S&P 500
• OpenAI plans to go public and SpaceX filed for IPO on Wednesday, exciting investors about new opportunities in the AI sector

The Trump administration is awarding $2 billion in grants to nine quantum computing companies, with the U.S. government taking equity stakes in the recipients. IBM will receive the largest portion at $1 billion, while GlobalFoundries gets $375 million, and seven other firms will receive smaller amounts ranging from $38 million to $100 million each.

• IBM receives $1 billion, the largest single grant, while GlobalFoundries gets $375 million of the $2 billion total package
• Five companies (D-Wave Quantum, Rigetti Computing, Infleqtion, and others) are expected to receive $100 million each, with startup Diraq receiving $38 million
• The deals include U.S. government equity stakes in the recipient companies, representing a significant shift in federal technology investment strategy

Vitol, one of the world's largest commodities traders, is seeking permits and third-party services to operate its Rio Bravo fuel terminal in northern Mexico, six years after construction and three years after a bribery scandal led state oil company Pemex to suspend commercial ties. The move would give Vitol a physical presence in Mexico's petroleum market, which is dominated by Pemex, and comes amid global scrambling for energy infrastructure.

• The Rio Bravo terminal in Matamoros has 270,000 barrels of storage capacity across 12 tanks and connects via a 6.5-mile pipeline from Brownsville, Texas, offering cost advantages through fixed tariff rates versus seaborne freight
• Vitol's U.S. subsidiary paid $164 million in 2020 as part of a deferred prosecution agreement after admitting to bribing officials in Mexico, Ecuador, and Brazil to retain business
• The terminal has remained idle since construction finished in 2020, and Vitol must secure third-party service contracts for testing and certification before applying to Mexico's energy ministry for operating permits

Options traders are positioning for significant moves ahead of Thursday earnings reports from Walmart, Nio, Webull, and Advance Auto Parts. Activity shows mixed sentiment with heavy trading volumes across consumer retail, EV, fintech brokerage, and auto parts sectors. Implied volatility suggests price swings ranging from 8.5% to over 11% following results.

• Walmart led options volume with 154,000 contracts traded Wednesday; stock up 16% year-to-date, nearly double the S&P 500, as inflation drives value-seeking consumers
• Advance Auto Parts shows strongest bullish positioning with call volume nearly 3x puts and implied move exceeding 11%, despite stock already up 32% year-to-date
• Brokerage sector under pressure as Webull down 15% YTD with peers Robinhood down 34% and Interactive Brokers down 11%, though traders bought 3x more calls than puts

Target is focusing on baby products, toys, and wellness items to attract young families and rebuild customer loyalty after losing cost-conscious shoppers to competitors like Walmart. The retailer reported strong earnings with 5.6% sales growth and doubled its net sales forecast to 4% as new CEO Michael Fiddelke invests $2 billion in store improvements and product expansion. The strategy aims to establish Target as the destination for personalized family items rather than basic necessities.

• Target added 2,000 items to its baby category and 1,500 health and wellness products this year, including 'baby boutiques' in 200 stores where parents can test products and consult shopping experts
• The company's baby products range from budget private-label items to premium brands like Bugaboo strollers costing over $2,000, targeting a broader spectrum of family shoppers
• Analysts note Target has struggled to define its niche, losing price-sensitive customers to Walmart while failing to attract younger, wealthier consumers, making execution of the family-focused strategy critical

U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs experienced eight consecutive days of outflows totaling $431.86 million from May 11-20, 2026, erasing most of April's $356 million recovery. Ethereum broke below its $2,200 support level to trade at $2,128, declining 6% for the week compared to Bitcoin's 2.3% drop, as institutional conviction weakened and major buyer Bitmine reduced its weekly ETH purchases by 74%.

• ETH ETFs suffered their eighth straight day of outflows on May 20, wiping out $431.86M and reversing April's $355.98M in net inflows that had ended a five-month, $2.8 billion outflow streak
• Bitmine, Ethereum's largest corporate holder with 5.28M ETH (4.4% of supply), slashed weekly purchases from 100,000 ETH to 26,659 ETH in the week ending May 11, removing a key structural buyer
• Ethereum's correlation to Nasdaq 100 at 0.78 makes it trade like a tech stock rather than a store of value, causing steeper declines than Bitcoin during risk-off events like Trump's Iran warning and rising oil prices above $112/barrel

The Trump administration is launching a new program through the U.S. Export-Import Bank to provide billions in export financing for foreign purchases of American AI tools and technology. The initiative, expected to be approved Thursday, aims to help the U.S. outcompete China in expanding global AI influence, following an executive order signed in July. The Commerce Department must approve licenses for sensitive technologies like advanced chips before financing deals can proceed.

• EXIM will offer insurance, loan guarantees for medium-term transactions, and direct loans for long-term deals to finance foreign purchases of U.S. AI tools including Nvidia chips
• The program responds to competitive pressure from China's DeepSeek, which released a free, open-source AI model that has gained widespread global adoption despite U.S. accusations of technology piggybacking
• Commerce Department licensing requirements will control exports of sensitive AI technologies, continuing restrictions that bar advanced U.S. chips from reaching China and high-risk countries

European space stocks surged on Thursday following SpaceX's filing for a stock market listing on Wednesday. The IPO filing by Elon Musk's company has lifted sentiment across the entire space sector, driving significant gains for satellite and aerospace companies.

• Eutelsat rose 20% while OHB surged 32% during the week following the SpaceX IPO announcement
• The SpaceX listing is described as a 'mega IPO' that is generating positive spillover effects for European satellite stocks
• Traders attribute the sector-wide rally to increased investor excitement about the commercial space industry

The U.K. and Gulf Cooperation Council announced a free trade agreement that Bahrain's industry minister called a 'monumental achievement.' The deal will remove an estimated £580 million ($780 million) in annual duties and is expected to boost the U.K. economy by £3.7 billion ($4.9 billion) yearly over the long term. The agreement makes the U.K. the first G7 country to secure a trade deal with the GCC, whose six member states have a combined GDP exceeding $2 trillion.

• The deal removes tariffs on U.K. exports including cars, turbojets, aerospace parts, cheddar cheese, and chocolate, with £360 million in duties eliminated immediately upon implementation
• The GCC comprises Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, representing over 57 million people and more than $2 trillion in combined GDP
• The agreement comes during regional tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict, with Gulf ministers emphasizing the bloc remains 'open for business' and focused on stability and economic growth

U.S. Treasury yields resumed their upward climb on Thursday after a brief respite, with the 10-year note rising over 3 basis points to 4.60% and the 30-year yield advancing to 5.13%. The increase reflects ongoing investor concerns about inflationary pressures, particularly from rising oil prices amid Middle East tensions.

• The 10-year Treasury yield increased more than 3 basis points to 4.6014%, while the 30-year yield rose over 1 basis point to 5.1334%, reversing Wednesday's declines when yields had dropped 6-9 basis points
• Oil prices climbed higher with U.S. crude futures at $99.61 per barrel (up 1.4%) and Brent at $106.42 (up 1.3%), driven by Middle East conflict concerns affecting shipping and energy markets
• Investors await April housing data, with new housing starts expected at 1.41 million (down from 1.502 million in March) and building permits forecast at 1.39 million (up from 1.363 million)

Hedge funds at the Sohn Investment Conference in Hong Kong identified AI infrastructure and Gen Z consumer trends as top investment themes for 2025. Managers highlighted opportunities in AI data centers like CoreWeave, semiconductor supply chain companies such as Taiwan's Compeq Manufacturing, and consumer brands including pet food maker i-Tail Corp and instant noodle producer Samyang Foods. These picks reflect strategies to capitalize on the tech boom and shifting spending patterns among younger consumers.

• AI infrastructure plays include CoreWeave (expected revenue growth from $1B in early 2024 to $55B by 2028), Taiwan's Compeq Manufacturing (PCB maker facing supply shortages, trading below 15x valuation), and Japan's Kandenko (positioned for AI data center construction boom)
• Gen Z consumer trends driving interest in Thai pet food maker i-Tail Corp, as Gen Z spends over $6,000 annually on pets (2.5x more than baby boomers), and South Korea sold more pet strollers than baby strollers last year
• South Korean instant noodle maker Samyang Foods seen benefiting from rapid international sales growth in Europe and U.S., along with margin expansion appealing to younger consumers