General Market News

European AI and technology stocks have rallied approximately 20-22% since early April, matching Nasdaq performance despite broader European equity markets falling over 2% amid economic contraction triggered by the Iran war. The gains are concentrated in semiconductor and AI infrastructure companies, bucking the gloomy trend affecting the wider STOXX 600 index.

• Two TS Lombard AI stock baskets (semiconductors and AI infrastructure) each gained 20-22% since April, on par with Nasdaq's 21% rise, while Europe's STOXX 600 fell 2% since the Iran war began February 28
• European tech stocks outperforming despite eurozone economic activity contracting at the fastest pace in over 2.5 years in May due to energy shock from Iran conflict
• Tech represents only 10% of European benchmark index, with gains driven by companies like ASML, Infineon, Schneider Electric, and renewed European focus on AI infrastructure investment

Coupa has acquired Tonkean, an AI-native intake and orchestration platform, to strengthen its 'Agentic-as-a-Service' capabilities across its network of over 3,500 buyers and 10 million suppliers. The deal is Coupa's fourth strategic acquisition aimed at building an autonomous trade network that can handle procurement workflows from request to payment with minimal manual intervention.

• Tonkean's platform has demonstrated significant efficiency gains: 2.2x increase in user adoption, 50% reduction in cycle times, and savings of more than 30 hours per week for operations teams
• The acquisition adds advanced multi-agent orchestration capabilities, a natural language interface, and over 250 native connectors that integrate with existing systems without requiring complete technology replacement
• This follows three prior acquisitions (Cirtuo, Scoutbee, and Rossum) as Coupa builds toward fully autonomous, AI-driven procurement that moves beyond recommendations to executing actual transaction workflows

Japan's core inflation fell to 1.4% in April, below the expected 1.7% and down from 1.8% in March, potentially weakening the case for a near-term Bank of Japan rate hike. This marks the fourth consecutive month that inflation has remained below the BOJ's 2% target. The softer inflation comes as Japan grapples with a weak yen and considers energy subsidies to address rising costs.

• Core-core inflation (excluding food and energy) declined sharply to 1.9% from 2.4%, a key metric watched by the BOJ
• Opposition lawmakers proposed a 3 trillion yen ($18.8 billion) energy relief package, including petrol subsidy extensions and electricity bill relief
• Despite softer inflation, Japan's economy expanded 2.1% annualized in Q1 2026, powered by strong exports that could still support future BOJ rate hikes

Financial advisors are being encouraged to reframe cryptocurrency volatility as a strategic feature rather than a flaw, arguing that it enables asymmetric returns similar to small-cap equities. A modest 5% crypto allocation can significantly enhance portfolio returns while adding minimal additional drawdown risk. The article positions volatility as an opportunity for systematic rebalancing and dollar-cost averaging strategies.

• A 5% bitcoin allocation increases maximum drawdown only 2.3 percentage points (from -24.1% to -26.4%) while providing significantly higher risk-adjusted returns
• Bitcoin's realized volatility has been declining over time due to institutional participation, deeper liquidity, regulated derivatives, and ETF launches, narrowing the gap with traditional equities
• Systematic rebalancing and dollar-cost averaging strategies can actively harness crypto volatility by selling high during outperformance and buying low during underperformance

US stocks rebounded on Thursday, with the Dow rising 278 points (0.56%) to close near 50,288, as hopes for a diplomatic resolution to US-Iran tensions improved investor sentiment. Oil prices reversed earlier gains, with WTI crude settling nearly 2% lower at $96.35 per barrel after initial spikes on Iran uranium stockpile concerns. Markets remained volatile throughout the session as investors tracked conflicting reports on Middle East negotiations and their impact on global energy supplies.

• WTI crude fell nearly 2% to $96.35 and Brent dropped over 2% to $102.58 after initial spikes, as diplomatic progress between the US and Iran eased concerns about Strait of Hormuz disruptions
• The 10-year Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.582% while the 30-year edged lower to 5.107% as inflation concerns related to energy prices fluctuated with oil market movements
• Nvidia shares fell approximately 1% despite beating earnings expectations and raising its quarterly dividend to 25 cents, as investors took profits following the stock's previous strong run

Mortgage rates jumped this week, with the 30-year fixed rate climbing to 6.51% from 6.36% the previous week, according to Freddie Mac. The increase is primarily driven by escalating conflict in the Middle East and investor concerns about inflation, rather than domestic policy changes. The rise comes as Kevin Warsh prepares to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair.

• The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.51%, up from 6.36% last week, while 15-year rates climbed to 5.85% from 5.71%
• Middle East conflict is the primary driver of rate volatility, with escalation headlines pushing yields higher and overshadowing the Fed leadership transition
• Financial markets expect no Fed rate cuts in 2025 and potential increases if oil prices drive broader inflation, despite the incoming Fed chair change

The article highlights three AI infrastructure stocks experiencing strong institutional investment in 2026: Sterling Infrastructure (STRL), nVent Electric (NVT), and Vertiv (VRT). These companies operate across different layers of AI data center infrastructure—construction, power, and cooling—and have delivered exceptional earnings performance with year-to-date gains ranging from 58% to 145%. The AI infrastructure build-out represents a multi-year investment opportunity driven by sustained capital deployment.

• Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) focuses on physical infrastructure with $825.7M revenue vs. $603.6M expected and EPS guidance of $18.725 vs. $13.73, up 145% YTD
• nVent Electric (NVT) provides electrical solutions with sales guidance up 29% vs. 18.2% expected and full-year EPS raised to $4.50 from $4.20, up 58% YTD
• Vertiv (VRT) specializes in cooling solutions with a $121B market cap, quarterly EPS of $1.17 vs. $1.00 estimate, and 2028 EPS guidance of $10.96, up 94% YTD

The U.S. Federal Trade Commission fined Cox Media Group $880,000 and two partner marketing firms for falsely claiming they used AI and voice-processing technology to track consumer conversations near smart devices for ad targeting. The companies misrepresented their capabilities to potential advertisers in 2023 and falsely claimed consumers had opted in to voice data collection.

• Cox Media Group will pay $880,000, while partner firms MindSift and 1010 Digital Works will each pay $25,000 for the deceptive marketing practices
• The company falsely told advertisers it could 'identify buyers based on casual conversations in real time' and that consumers had consented to voice data collection
• Cox, which operates radio and TV stations with a digital marketing arm, blamed third-party vendor marketing materials and said it has stopped using the product in question

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang predicted AI capital expenditures could reach $3-4 trillion annually by the end of the decade, far exceeding Wall Street's consensus estimate of $1.03 trillion by 2028. This optimistic forecast is driven by growing cloud revenues and advances in AI agents, though economists remain divided on whether AI productivity gains justify such massive spending.

• Huang's $3-4 trillion estimate is 3-4 times higher than Wall Street consensus projections, which forecast hyperscale capex hitting $1 trillion in 2027-2028
• Major cloud providers showed strong quarterly revenue growth: Microsoft Azure up 63%, Google Cloud up 28%, and AWS up 40%, supporting Huang's optimism
• JPMorgan estimated that achieving just a 10% return on AI investments through 2030 would require about $650 billion in annual revenue perpetually, while AI productivity gains remain unclear and lack economist consensus

Sixteen states are engaged in legal battles with prediction market platforms, while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has sued six states to defend its claimed exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts. The conflict centers on whether prediction markets constitute gambling under state law or federal swap contracts, with cases likely heading to the Supreme Court.

• All six states sued by the CFTC have Democratic attorneys general, despite 16 total states being involved in legal proceedings including five with Republican AGs
• The CFTC won a preliminary injunction in Arizona to stop enforcement against Kalshi, while cases in the other five states (New York, Connecticut, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota) remain ongoing
• Minnesota became the first state to ban prediction markets entirely after Gov. Tim Walz signed legislation, prompting a CFTC lawsuit asserting federal preemption

US stock markets reversed early losses on Thursday after reports emerged of a draft peace agreement between the United States and Iran, easing geopolitical tensions. The Dow Jones rose 0.62%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each gained 0.37% as investors rotated back into risk assets. The draft deal reportedly includes an immediate ceasefire, freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and gradual sanctions relief tied to Iranian compliance.

• The draft agreement includes commitments from both sides not to target infrastructure and guarantees for freedom of navigation through the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz under joint monitoring, with negotiations on unresolved issues to begin within seven days.
• US crude oil prices hovered near $97 per barrel as traders speculated the deal could restore stable energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, where traffic has declined sharply since the conflict intensified.
• Treasury yields edged lower as investors reassessed near-term inflation outlook, with reduced concerns about prolonged disruptions in global energy markets that had been driving oil-related inflation pressures.

The Memorial Day-shortened trading week will feature key economic data releases including the PCE inflation index, revised Q1 GDP, and consumer confidence reports. Major retailers including Gap, Dollar Tree, and Kohl's will report earnings alongside tech companies like Salesforce, Dell, and Snowflake. Markets are closed Monday, May 25 for Memorial Day, with Friday bringing the heaviest schedule of economic data.

• Friday, May 29 will be the busiest day with multiple data releases: revised Q1 GDP, personal income/spending, PCE inflation index (the Fed's preferred gauge), and trade balance data
• Retail earnings from Gap, Dollar Tree, Kohl's, and AutoZone will provide insights into consumer spending trends during the quarter
• Key housing market data includes the S&P Case-Shiller home price index on Tuesday and new home sales figures on Thursday

Russia's NORSI refinery, the country's fourth-largest and second-biggest gasoline producer, has partially shut down its main processing unit after a Ukrainian drone attack on Wednesday. The facility can process 320,000 barrels per day, and the affected unit accounts for 53% of its total capacity. This adds to a broader pattern of Ukrainian strikes forcing major Russian refineries to halt or reduce output.

• The shutdown of NORSI's CDU-6 unit eliminates 190,000 barrels per day of processing capacity, representing over half the refinery's output
• Multiple major refineries in central Russia have been forced to halt or scale back operations due to recent Ukrainian drone attacks
• The targeted facility is located in Nizhny Novgorod, approximately 450 km east of Moscow, and is owned by Lukoil

Oura, the Finnish maker of the Oura Ring smart wearable, has confidentially filed for an IPO in the United States. The move comes as the U.S. IPO market rebounds strongly after a March slowdown, with investors pushing past geopolitical uncertainty to fund new listings. Oura raised over $900 million at an $11 billion valuation in October 2024.

• Oura's smart ring tracks sleep, activity, and health metrics, offering personalized wellness insights to users
• The company achieved an $11 billion valuation in its October funding round led by Fidelity Management & Research Company
• Confidential IPO filings allow companies to prepare for public listings away from market scrutiny as U.S. IPO momentum returns

Federal Reserve meeting minutes from late April reveal growing anxiety among staff and officials about elevated financial market risks, including high asset valuations, bond yield volatility, and AI-related debt concerns. This comes as Kevin Warsh prepares to assume the Fed chair role on Friday, succeeding Jerome Powell, with Warsh known for criticizing some of the Fed's recent market intervention tools and favoring a smaller Fed balance sheet.

• Fed staff characterized financial vulnerabilities as 'notable' with 'elevated' asset valuation pressures, while several policymakers noted heightened risk of sharp market corrections and concerns about opaque private credit markets
• Some officials discussed potential improvements to Fed liquidity tools including the discount window, standing repo operations, and currency swap lines, with a few favoring extending swap arrangements beyond the current year for financial stability
• Warsh's incoming leadership raises uncertainty as he has been critical of aggressive asset buying programs and may seek greater Treasury coordination, prompting fears the Fed could be less willing to intervene during financial stress

On May 21, 2026, pre-market trading showed mixed economic signals with initial jobless claims falling to 209K and housing starts rising to 1.465 million, though single-family home construction declined while multi-family units surged. The Philly Fed index turned negative for the first time in 2026, and major retailers including Walmart, Advance Auto Parts, and Williams-Sonoma beat earnings expectations.

• Initial jobless claims dropped to 209K with continuing claims at 1.78 million, marking the fourth consecutive week below 1.8 million for the first time in two years
• Housing starts showed divergent trends: single-family starts fell 9% while multi-family construction jumped 14.3%, reflecting high mortgage rates dampening demand for single-family homes
• Philly Fed Manufacturing Index fell to -0.4% from 26.7% prior month, missing expectations of 19.0% and marking the first negative reading of 2026

Some U.S. Federal Reserve officials have proposed extending dollar swap lines with five major central banks beyond their current annual renewal period to enhance financial stability. The discussion comes amid global instability from a U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict and growing concerns about America's reliability in providing dollar backstops. Incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's ambiguous comments about the Fed's independence in international finance matters have unsettled European central banking peers.

• Dollar swap lines with five central banks (including the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank) are currently reinstated annually, but some FOMC participants suggested longer extensions would benefit financial stability
• The proposal emerges during heightened global instability driven by conflict and energy cost concerns, with questions mounting about U.S. reliability in both military defense and financial support
• Incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh indicated the Fed may lack 'special deference' in international finance matters and would need to work with the Administration and Congress, creating uncertainty among international partners

U.S. stock indices declined on May 21, 2026, with the S&P 500 falling 0.2% and Nasdaq down 0.3% as oil prices surged approximately 3% following Iran's directive to retain enriched uranium domestically. Rising Treasury yields (10-year at 4.615%, 30-year at 5.14%) and renewed inflation concerns pressured equities, while Nvidia's strong earnings failed to lift tech stocks.

• WTI crude jumped roughly 3% to $102/barrel and Brent to $108 after Iran's supreme leader ordered enriched uranium kept inside borders, reigniting inflation fears and deal optimism collapse
• Nvidia beat estimates with 85% year-over-year revenue growth ($81.62B vs. $78.86B expected) but the stock barely moved, signaling stretched expectations across the AI sector
• Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index collapsed to negative 0.4 in May from 26.7 in April, a brutal miss suggesting potential earnings impacts two quarters ahead; quantum computing stocks surged on reports of $2B in government grants with Washington taking equity stakes

Rep. Nick Begich (R-Alaska) has introduced the American Reserve Modernization Act to establish a strategic bitcoin reserve within the U.S. Treasury Department, aiming to diversify America's reserve holdings. The bipartisan bill comes after President Trump's March 2025 executive order on bitcoin reserves and follows the Treasury's recent seizure of nearly $500 million in Iranian cryptocurrency assets. The legislation would create separate holdings for bitcoin and other digital assets.

• The bill has bipartisan support with over a dozen co-sponsors, including Rep. Pat Harrigan (R-N.C.), who notes the U.S. already holds billions in seized bitcoin without a management strategy
• Target goal is for the U.S. to hold approximately 5% of global bitcoin supply (about 1 million coins), roughly equivalent to current U.S. gold reserves which represent 60% of crypto market capitalization
• The Senate Banking Committee passed the related Clarity Act 15-9, with Sen. Cynthia Lummis projecting a possible Senate floor vote by mid-June 2025, though she called that timeline 'pretty optimistic'

Ted Oakley of Oxbow Advisors warns that U.S. markets face a dangerous disconnect between AI-driven tech euphoria and deteriorating consumer finances, as the 30-year Treasury yield hits 5.18% - levels unseen since the 2008 financial crisis. Credit card delinquencies have reached 11%, matching crisis-era levels, while auto loan delinquencies are even higher, contradicting Wall Street's optimistic consumer outlook.

• U.S. household credit card balances hit a record $1.28 trillion by end of 2025, with serious delinquencies (90+ days overdue) surging to 11%, returning to levels last seen over a decade ago.
• Tech firms are expected to spend $725 billion on AI infrastructure this year, but Oakley believes investors are ignoring the physical commodities and power grid requirements needed to support this buildout.
• Oakley recommends energy stocks (currently only 3% of S&P 500 versus 32% in early 1980s) and gold mining equities, warning gold may need a $500 drop to flush out momentum buyers before becoming a buying opportunity near $4,000.