Dow Jones & Nasdaq 100: Weaker Yen Lifts US Futures Ahead of US Data

• Japanese exports to the US fell 11.1% year-on-year in December (versus 8.8% in November), cooling BoJ rate hike expectations and weakening the yen to 158.431 against the dollar.
• US economists forecast initial jobless claims to rise to 212k (from 198k), Core PCE inflation at 2.8% year-on-year, and Q4 GDP growth accelerating to 4.3% quarter-on-quarter from 3.3% in Q3.
• Technical indicators show all three major US index futures trading above their 50-day and 200-day EMAs, with Dow Jones targeting 50,000, Nasdaq 100 eyeing 26,000, and S&P 500 aiming for 7,036 resistance levels.

Market Summary: US Futures Advance on Weak Yen and Easing Trade Tensions

Key Market Movements

US stock futures rallied on Thursday, January 22, 2026, with the Dow Jones E-mini and Nasdaq 100 E-mini each climbing 111 points, while the S&P 500 E-mini advanced 22 points. All three indices traded above their 50-day and 200-day EMAs, signaling bullish momentum.

Japanese Economic Data Impact

Japanese exports grew 5.1% year-on-year in December, down from 6.1% in November, with US-bound exports falling 11.1%. This weaker data cooled Bank of Japan rate hike expectations, weakening the yen and pushing USD/JPY to 158.431. The softer yen supported yen carry trades and boosted risk appetite for US equities. 10-year JGB yields declined, further supporting risk assets.

Key US Economic Catalysts

Thursday's data releases include initial jobless claims (forecast: 212k vs. 198k prior) and Core PCE Price Index (expected: 2.8% year-on-year). Q4 GDP is projected at 4.3% quarterly growth, accelerating from Q3's 3.3%. President Trump claimed core inflation at 1.5% with Q4 growth potentially reaching 5.4%.

Market Outlook

The bullish outlook is supported by easing US-EU trade tensions, expectations of multiple Fed rate cuts in 2026 (particularly June), strong Q4 earnings expectations (Intel reporting Thursday), and AI-linked optimism. Key technical resistance levels: Dow 49,901-50,000; Nasdaq 100 26,000-26,399; S&P 500 7,036-7,500.

Risks: Hawkish BoJ policy Friday, yen carry trade unwind, stronger-than-expected inflation/labor data, or disappointing corporate earnings could challenge the bullish bias.