Trump's bold economic promises on the campaign trail have led to a policy salad

The Guardian | January 22, 2026 at 12:22 PM UTC
Bearish 76% Confidence Unanimous Agreement
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Key Points

  • Food and energy prices have risen faster under Trump than during Biden's last year in office, with household energy costs up 7.3% - more than twice Biden's rate
  • Recent polling shows 49% of Americans think the economy is worse than a year ago, while 54% disapprove of Trump's economic stewardship and 61% disagree with his economic policies
  • Proposed solutions like capping credit card interest rates and extending mortgages to 50 years may harm the intended beneficiaries by restricting credit access and increasing long-term housing costs

AI Summary

Summary: Trump's Economic Promises Face Reality Check Amid Rising Costs

President Trump's campaign promise that "groceries will be cheaper" has failed to materialize, with food prices rising faster during his first year in office than during Biden's final year. Facing negative poll numbers—49% of Americans believe the economy has worsened and 54% disapprove of his economic stewardship—Trump has responded with a flurry of policy proposals that economists criticize as incoherent.

Key Economic Failures:

  • Household energy prices rose 7.3% under Trump's watch, more than double Biden's last year
  • Promise to "cut the cost of a new home in half" remains unfulfilled
  • Tariff-driven factory revival has not materialized; Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell notes tariffs are hindering inflation control

Recent Policy Proposals:

Trump has announced multiple initiatives to regain voter support, including:

  • Capping credit card interest rates (economists warn this could restrict credit access for higher-risk borrowers)
  • Barring investors from buying single-family homes (likely to discourage residential construction)
  • Extending mortgages to 50 years (would increase lifetime housing costs)
  • Allowing retirement account withdrawals for down payments (would inflate housing prices)

Political Context:

Recent polls show 61% of Americans disagree with Trump's economic policies. His proposals mark a departure from traditional Republican free-market principles, blending populist appeals with economically questionable measures. The approach reflects post-globalization politics focused on addressing voter grievances over economic efficiency.

Research suggests Trump's 2018-2019 tariff strategy helped Republicans electorally despite job losses, indicating political messaging may override economic outcomes. Whether this scattershot approach will restore voter confidence remains uncertain as economic frustrations persist.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Bearish 75%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bearish 78%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bearish 75%
Consensus Bearish 76%