General Market News

The Nasdaq 100, trading at 29,538 (up 1.2%), is compressed within a Bollinger Band squeeze signaling an imminent large directional move. Two competing Elliott Wave scenarios suggest either a bullish breakout toward 30,500-30,750 or a bearish drop to around 27,000. The index sits at a critical inflection point with key warning levels at 30,195 (upside) and 28,598 (downside) that will determine the direction of the next expansion.

• Bollinger Bands are tightly compressed with upper band at 30,280 and lower at 28,600 (1,680-point range), indicating coiling volatility that typically precedes outsized directional moves.
• Preferred Elliott Wave count targets completion of wave 5 rally to 30,500-30,750, followed by a decline to 26,700; alternative count suggests current rebound is only a wave-2 correction before a larger third-wave decline to 27,732.
• Critical breakout levels: bulls need a close above 30,195 to invalidate the bearish scenario; bears need a break below 28,598 (lower Bollinger Band) to confirm downside momentum.

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will deliver his keynote speech Friday at the Jackson Hole symposium amid significant uncertainty about his messaging. Markets are seeking clarity on the Fed's rate policy and reaction function, but Warsh has favored a hands-off communication approach that lets markets interpret data rather than providing forward guidance. The stakes are high as Treasury yields have risen and the Treasury Department recently announced expanded buyback operations.

• Warsh has established task forces for a 'first principles' review of Fed functions including inflation assessment, balance sheet management, and communication strategies, but has avoided providing specific forward guidance or clear conditions for rate adjustments
• Bank of America warns that if Warsh focuses only on structural themes without signaling readiness to raise rates if inflation persists, markets could interpret it as dovish and push the 30-year Treasury yield to 5.5% or higher
• Treasury's announcement to double debt buyback operations from $2 billion to $4 billion per weekly operation starting September 9 creates potential tension with Warsh's stated market-driven approach

President Donald Trump plans to meet with U.S. refiners and fuel retailers next week to address rising gasoline prices caused by the Iran conflict. The administration aims to reduce consumer cost pressures ahead of the November congressional midterm elections.

• The meeting is scheduled for next week and will focus on efforts to lower gas prices for consumers
• Rising fuel costs are linked to the ongoing Iran conflict, creating political pressure before midterm elections
• The administration is seeking solutions from the refining and retail fuel sectors to ease price pressures

Prediction markets show low odds that Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will address bond market volatility or rate cuts in his Jackson Hole speech, despite recent Treasury yields hitting 5.3% and the Treasury Department's intervention. Market watchers are focused on whether Warsh will provide clarity on the Fed's September decision or acknowledge last week's bond market turmoil.

• Kalshi traders give only 20% odds Warsh mentions 'bond market' and 17% chance he says 'yield curve,' with just 11% odds he'll say 'rate cut' despite market volatility
• The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.3% last week (highest since June 2007), prompting the Treasury to double buybacks of long-term debt from $2 billion to $4 billion
• 45% of survey respondents expect Warsh won't expand on rate outlook, while prediction markets show 67% chance the S&P 500 moves 0.5% after his speech

Donald Trump Jr. reportedly urged Republican state attorneys general in March not to challenge prediction markets, claiming gambling companies are misleading states to protect their monopolies. Trump Jr. serves as an advisor to major prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, raising questions about conflicts of interest as states and federal regulators battle over jurisdiction of these markets.

• Trump Jr. advised that event contract exchanges should be federally regulated, aligning with positions of Kalshi and Polymarket where he serves as advisor
• The CFTC has sued nine states to block their regulatory actions against prediction markets, with eight having Democratic attorneys general
• States argue they have authority over sports-related offerings while prediction platforms maintain the CFTC governs these markets; Kalshi lobbying helped shape a 5% North Carolina tax rate on prediction markets versus 23% on sportsbooks

Uncertainty persists around oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz amid Iran's control assertions, with conflicting data on actual transit volumes. Iran and Oman are reportedly close to a joint shipping corridor deal, though Gulf nations are unlikely to accept any pay-for-passage arrangement. The U.S. is intensifying economic pressure on Iran through 'Operation Economic Outcast' while removing Syria's terrorism designation, potentially opening investment opportunities for major oil companies.

• Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain well below pre-war levels when 20% of global oil flowed through the corridor, though exact volumes are disputed between Iranian and U.S. government claims
• Syria's removal from the state sponsor of terrorism list could facilitate over $60 billion in investments by Exxon, Chevron, and Shell in Iraq-Syria-Turkey pipeline projects
• Citigroup forecasts Brent crude could fall to $60 with an Iran peace deal or spike to $110 if Strait tensions persist past November elections

Over 100 major tech companies including OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet are calling for an urgent, society-wide effort to strengthen cybersecurity defenses against an anticipated surge in AI-driven cyberattacks. The coalition warns there is limited time to secure digital infrastructure before AI-enabled hacking becomes widespread as AI models grow more capable.

• The coalition includes major players across sectors: tech giants (Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet), AI developers (OpenAI, Anthropic), financial institutions (Mastercard, Visa, Capital One), and corporations (General Motors, IBM, Oracle)
• Companies are urging governments to expedite trusted access programs that give select organizations early access to powerful AI models, and calling on all organizations to make cyber defense an immediate leadership priority
• The warning aligns with concerns from the 'Five Eyes' intelligence alliance (U.S., Britain, Canada, Australia, New Zealand), which stated in June that AI will 'fundamentally transform' cybersecurity

Investors face a critical week of economic data ahead of the Federal Reserve's September 15-16 policy meeting, with Friday's August jobs report taking center stage. The week also includes ISM manufacturing and services surveys, JOLTS report, and ADP employment data, all providing clues about the Fed's next rate cut decision. Major earnings releases include Broadcom, Dell Technologies, lululemon, and several other notable companies.

• August Employment Report releases Friday, September 4, including unemployment rate and average hourly earnings data that will inform Fed rate cut expectations
• Key economic indicators throughout the week include ISM Manufacturing PMI (Tuesday), ADP National Employment Report (Wednesday), and ISM Services PMI (Thursday)
• Notable earnings reports include Broadcom (AVGO), Dell Technologies (DELL), lululemon (LULU), Five Below (FIVE), and Victoria's Secret (VSXY)

U.S. farm and biofuel groups are urging President Trump to reject a proposed expansion of small refinery exemptions (SREs) from biofuel blending requirements, warning it would devastate rural economies and biofuel demand. The White House is reportedly considering nearly doubling exemptions to 1.8 billion credits to lower gasoline prices amid a war with Iran ahead of November midterm elections.

• The administration is considering roughly doubling SREs from 950 million to 1.8 billion credits, with a decision expected by end of August
• Groups warn excess exemptions would 'decimate demand' for biofuels, causing market collapse and reducing demand for corn and soybean oil
• Iowa Republican Senator Joni Ernst called the plan a 'handout to Big Oil,' arguing SREs would hurt farmers without lowering gas prices while padding refiners' profits

Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack called for raising interest rates, stating that 'now is the time to act' based on recent inflation data. She emphasized that the central bank remains too far from its inflation goal, reiterating her hawkish stance on monetary policy.

• Hammack is advocating for higher interest rates contrary to the Fed's recent easing trend
• Her position is based on recent inflation data showing the Fed has not achieved its target
• The statement represents a dissenting view within the Federal Reserve on the appropriate direction for monetary policy

RiverFront Investment Group analyzes different yield metrics used to evaluate stocks and bonds as rising interest rates force equities to compete harder for investor allocations. The article explains that nearly 40% of U.S. stocks' long-term total returns historically come from compounded dividends, highlighting the importance of understanding various yield measures when making asset allocation decisions.

• For stocks, earnings yield (E/P ratio inverse) is compared to 10-year Treasury rates for valuation, while dividend yield and SEC yield (which nets dividends against fund fees) are used to assess income potential
• Bond evaluation differs by strategy: ETF portfolios use SEC yield to forecast income generation, while individual bond portfolios analyze yield-to-maturity, yield-to-call, and yield-to-worst based on bond characteristics
• Municipal bonds require taxable-equivalent yield calculations to compare properly with taxable bonds; a 3.25% municipal yield equals 5.16% for investors in the 37% tax bracket, making it superior to a 4.70% Treasury despite lower stated yield

Family offices increased their stock holdings to 37% of portfolios in Q2 2026, up from 34% in Q1, while reducing exposure to private markets and real estate. The shift, tracked by CNBC and Addepar across hundreds of family offices managing $1.4 trillion in assets, reflects continued bullishness on AI-driven equities and markdowns in private credit valuations.

• The 3 percentage point increase in equities marks the largest quarterly shift in 3-4 years, driven by a 15% S&P 500 rally and concentration in tech stocks like Microsoft (held by 77% of family offices), Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, and Nvidia
• Private market allocations fell from 49% to 46%, primarily due to private credit funds marking down asset values, with 18% of recent vintage funds (2020+) posting net asset value declines versus a 9% historical average
• The portfolio shift largely resulted from market fluctuations rather than active trading, as rising stock valuations and declining private market marks changed relative allocations while cash positions decreased slightly

The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 rose in early trading on Thursday following strong earnings from Nvidia, while the Dow Jones 30 lagged behind. The Nasdaq 100 approached 30,000 with support at 28,500, while the Dow retreated toward 53,000 amid geopolitical concerns including trade tensions and the Strait of Hormuz closure.

• Nasdaq 100 gained 1.10% and S&P 500 rose 0.41%, driven by Nvidia's positive earnings call, while Dow Jones declined 0.38%
• Key technical levels identified: Nasdaq 100 targeting 30,000, S&P 500 eyeing 7,800 resistance with 7,600 as support, and Dow testing 53,000 with 50-day EMA support
• Market faces multiple headwinds including upcoming speech by Kevin Warsh, interest rate concerns, US-Canada trade tensions, and geopolitical risks affecting blue-chip multinationals

Kansas City Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Schmid described inflation as 'stubborn' and 'sticky' and stated that the current policy rate of 3.5%-3.75% may not be restrictive on the economy. While he stopped short of calling for a rate hike, his comments highlight ongoing concerns about inflation running above the Fed's 2% target.

• Core inflation rose 3.3% year-over-year in July, significantly above the Fed's 2% target, while the economy grew at 1.5% in Q2 with unemployment at 4.1%
• Schmid questioned whether current rates are restrictive, saying 'I don't know what we're restricting currently with the rate policy that we're at today'
• Schmid expressed support for Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's proposal to reduce the number of FOMC meetings from eight to six per year

Nasdaq 100 futures surged about 1% on Thursday after Nvidia projected roughly 70% revenue growth for fiscal 2028, significantly exceeding Wall Street expectations. The rally broadened to software stocks as Salesforce and CrowdStrike also delivered strong outlooks, easing concerns about AI disruption to traditional software businesses. Investors await Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech on Friday as the next major macro test.

• Nvidia jumped over 7% premarket after reporting data-centre sales up 117% to $89 billion and guiding Q3 revenue to $108 billion, though gross margin is expected to decline from 75% to about 74% due to rising memory costs
• Salesforce rose 7% after raising fiscal 2027 revenue guidance to $46.1-$46.4 billion, with Agentforce and Data 360 annual recurring revenue reaching $3.9 billion (up 210% year-over-year); CrowdStrike climbed 9% on 26% revenue growth to $1.47 billion
• July inflation remains elevated with headline at 3.7% and core at 3.3%, both above the Fed's 2% target, keeping rate increase prospects alive ahead of Warsh's Friday keynote at Jackson Hole

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh faces mounting pressure to address persistent inflation as he delivers a key speech at Jackson Hole. Inflation has exceeded the Fed's 2% target for 65 consecutive months, with July's 3.7% rate nearly double the target. Warsh must balance communication carefully amid concerns about Fed independence and potential coordination with Treasury Secretary Bessent's market interventions.

• July inflation hit 3.7% with auto prices rising at 5% annualized pace and housing costs up 3.5%; three policymakers dissented in favor of rate hikes at the last meeting
• Markets are increasing bets on a Fed rate hike as soon as the September 15-16 meeting following sticky inflation data
• Treasury Secretary Bessent's surprise expansion of debt buyback program to cap rising yields has complicated Warsh's stated preference for letting bond markets operate freely

Wall Street's largest banks are feuding over a Federal Reserve proposal to revise capital surcharge rules for systemically important banks (GSIBs). JPMorgan and Bank of America oppose a funding provision that would benefit Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, with JPMorgan estimating it would miss out on $13 billion in capital relief while its rivals gain $1-2 billion each. The dispute threatens to complicate the Fed's effort to finalize capital rule reforms before Democrats potentially take control of the House.

• JPMorgan estimates the proposed short-term wholesale funding tweak would cost it $13 billion in capital relief and BofA $9 billion, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley would each gain $1-2 billion in additional relief
• The dispute centers on how the Fed measures short-term wholesale funding in its GSIB surcharge calculation, with Morgan Stanley and Goldman more reliant on such funding (37% and 30% of liabilities) compared to JPMorgan and BofA (21% and 24%)
• JPMorgan and BofA are lobbying the Fed to reverse the change, arguing it would incentivize trading over lending, while Goldman and Morgan Stanley push for quick finalization, claiming it improves risk sensitivity

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver his first keynote speech as Fed chair at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on Friday, facing scrutiny over his approach to monetary policy amid persistently high inflation. Markets are seeking clarity on the Fed's rate path as inflation remains well above the 2% target and bond yields hover near recent highs. Warsh has avoided traditional forward guidance since taking office in May, creating uncertainty about future policy direction.

• PCE inflation remains elevated at 3.7% headline and 3.3% core in July, both significantly above the Fed's 2% target, with markets pricing in a 45% chance of a rate hike by December following a 9-3 vote to hold rates at 3.5%-3.75% in July
• Warsh has eliminated forward guidance and forward-looking comments from Fed statements, creating what economists call a 'tremendous degree of uncertainty' and contributing to higher Treasury yields due to perceived lack of policy transparency
• Economists expect Warsh to avoid committing to specific rate moves in his speech, maintaining his 'watchful thinking' approach while markets desire clearer framework guidance on how the Fed will conduct monetary policy under his leadership

Qantas Airways will retire its 10 Airbus A380 superjumbos by mid-2028, four years earlier than planned, due to rising maintenance costs and supply-chain constraints for the out-of-production aircraft. The decision reflects the broader decline of the world's largest passenger airliner, which has faced retirement by multiple carriers due to high operating costs and competition from more efficient twin-engine aircraft.

• Early retirement will unlock approximately A$300 million ($215 million) in net cashflow benefits from 2028-2031, primarily by avoiding maintenance costs
• Of the 251 A380s delivered before production ended in 2021, only 196 remain in service as of July, with airlines including Air France, China Southern, and Malaysia Airlines having already retired their fleets
• Emirates remains the dominant operator with 116 aircraft (nearly half of all A380s delivered) and plans to fly them into the 2040s, while most other operators expect to phase out the model by the early 2030s

Treasury yields declined slightly on Thursday as investors awaited key employment data and the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole economic symposium. The benchmark Treasury yield fell 2 basis points to 4.645%, while markets priced in a 36% probability of a Fed rate hike in September. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Friday speech at Jackson Hole is the week's most anticipated event.

• Initial jobless claims data scheduled for 1:30 p.m. ET will provide another economic snapshot after the Fed's preferred inflation measure was released Wednesday
• Markets are pricing approximately 36% odds of a September Fed rate hike according to CME Group data
• Investors seek clarity on Chair Warsh's views on the economy, inflation, and monetary policy, with any dovish or hawkish signals likely to trigger market volatility