General Market News

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh warned that recent inflation data has not shown sufficient improvement, pushing September rate hike odds to 57% from 35.4%. The Dow gained 0.5% for the week despite Friday's decline, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.5% and 0.9% weekly. Chip stocks declined sharply, with Marvell dropping 10% on disappointing guidance.

• Warsh stated the Fed needs confidence that inflation is moving toward its 2% target 'clearly and at sufficient speed,' increasing September rate hike probability to ~57%
• Marvell Technology fell 10% after issuing weaker-than-expected guidance despite raising 2027 revenue outlook, attributed to concerns about AI chip revenue timing with Alphabet
• Short-term Treasury yields rose following Warsh's comments, while Gap surged on strong guidance and PayPal dropped after private equity consortium abandoned acquisition pursuit

Corn and wheat prices have surged to their highest levels in over three years, driven by different factors. Wheat has jumped 54.5% year-to-date, primarily due to Black Sea export disruptions from Russia-Ukraine tensions, while corn has risen 21.8% year-to-date on tighter U.S. supply expectations and strong demand. Both markets face additional pressure from weather events and constrained global supplies.

• Wheat futures hit 790.25 cents per bushel (highest since Feb 2023), jumping 12.1% in one week as attacks on Black Sea infrastructure disrupted exports from Russia and Ukraine, which together account for over 25% of global wheat exports
• Corn futures reached 541.25 cents per bushel (highest since July 2023), up 15.6% in August alone, after USDA cut yield forecasts by 2.3 bushels per acre due to extreme July heat, excessive rainfall, and fungal diseases affecting U.S. crops
• European drought significantly reduced both corn and wheat production by 8-10 million tons, with strong European export demand and constrained Ukrainian shipments adding further pressure to already tight global supplies

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his first Jackson Hole keynote address, emphasizing the Fed's commitment to returning inflation to its 2% target and signaling a more hawkish stance. With PCE inflation at 3.7% in July, Warsh indicated readiness to raise rates if progress stalls, while reaffirming his position to limit forward guidance outside of crisis periods. Market analysts view the speech as clarifying the Fed's direction after ambiguity from the July FOMC meeting.

• Warsh called the current 3.7% PCE inflation rate 'concerning' and emphasized the 2% target as the 'firm, fixed target' for policymakers, signaling potential rate hikes if inflation progress stalls
• The Fed chair reiterated his commitment to limiting forward guidance except during economic or financial crises, a stance analysts warn could increase market volatility and surprises for investors
• Analysts noted the speech was 'distinctly hawkish' and increased the risk of a September rate hike, with the market responding positively to the greater policy clarity despite its hawkish tone

Following Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole, stock traders showed acceptance of potential rate hikes as the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell to 14.1, its lowest level of the year. Market odds of a September rate hike jumped to nearly 60 percent from 35 percent, yet equity volatility remained subdued, suggesting traders view a vigilant Fed as positive for controlling inflation without aggressive hiking.

• The VIX dropped to 14.1 after Warsh's speech, while September rate hike odds surged from 35% to nearly 60% according to Fed funds futures
• The spread between six-month and one-month S&P 500 options prices reached the 96th percentile for the past year, indicating uncertainty about longer-term rate impacts
• Late-February VIX futures traded around 21 compared to 16.9 for front-month contracts, showing a steeper curve than a month prior when front-month contracts were near 20

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh provided limited but meaningful policy guidance at Jackson Hole, signaling potential interest rate hikes despite his previous commitment to a 'quieter Fed' approach. His comments shifted market expectations toward a September rate hike, offering relief to observers who had criticized his earlier reticence on policy direction. The speech represented a modest return to traditional Fed communication practices while still avoiding explicit forward guidance.

• Markets repriced Fed outlook after Warsh stated the Fed has 'work to do' unless confident underlying inflation is moving to the 2% objective at sufficient speed, boosting September rate hike expectations
• Warsh's communication shift comes after maintaining the policy rate at 3.50%-3.75% in July and amid inflation running above the Fed's 2% target for almost six years
• Other Fed officials have publicly disagreed with Warsh's communication approach, with some arguing that transparency about policy views is critical for accountability and helps businesses and households make better-informed decisions

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly attacked Senator Elizabeth Warren over her inquiry about U.S. intervention to support the Japanese yen, accusing her of misunderstanding foreign exchange markets. Warren had questioned the rare currency intervention where Treasury sold euros to purchase yen after the Japanese currency hit a record low. Despite his criticism, Bessent left several of Warren's key questions unanswered, including the size and current value of the transaction.

• Warren's letter contained an opening error suggesting Japan owed Treasury money, though she later correctly described the transaction as a euro-for-yen sale with no credit extended to Japan
• Bessent did not disclose critical details including how much yen was purchased, the execution rate, or the position's current value, despite his notepad showing '$5-10 bil' at a July 31 meeting
• The intervention marked the first coordinated U.S.-Japan currency support effort since 1998, with Japan spending a record 15.4 trillion yen ($96.5 billion) between July 30 and August 26

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, signaling resolve to combat inflation and openness to rate hikes, which boosted September rate hike odds from 35% to 57%. While investors welcomed clearer commitment to the 2% inflation target, many remain uncertain about the Fed's 'reaction function' and what specific economic data would trigger policy action. Warsh has scaled back Fed communications and forward guidance since taking office months ago.

• Market reaction was hawkish: 2-year Treasury yield rose to 4.34% (one-month high), while rate hike probability for September meeting jumped to 57% from 35% before the speech
• Inflation remains elevated at 3.7% year-over-year in July (PCE index), well above the Fed's 2% target, with Warsh acknowledging the economy is 'running hot' and financial conditions don't appear restrictive
• Investors remain divided on Fed's next steps, citing lack of clarity on what combination of inflation and labor market data would prompt action, with focus now shifting to upcoming jobs report and CPI data

The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that sports-related event contracts on prediction market platforms are not federally-regulated derivatives but rather sports betting, allowing states to regulate them. This decision contradicts an April ruling by the Third Circuit Court of Appeals, creating a circuit split that will likely push the issue to the Supreme Court for final resolution.

• The ruling rejected appeals from Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Robinhood to stop Nevada from halting their sports prediction operations, siding with states that classify these offerings as gambling rather than CFTC-regulated swaps
• The contradictory rulings between the Ninth and Third Circuit courts create a 'classic circuit split' over whether the CFTC or state gaming regulators have jurisdiction over sports-related event contracts
• DraftKings stock jumped 7% and Flutter rose over 6% on the news, as both traditional sports betting companies had been negatively impacted by prediction market competition

Antero Midstream (AM) has risen 4.6% since its last earnings report, where Q2 2026 earnings of 24 cents per share missed estimates despite revenues of $327.24 million beating expectations by 1.5%. The company benefited from record gathering volumes and is reducing debt using $371 million from a Veolia settlement, though higher operating and interest costs pressured profitability.

• Average daily gathering volumes hit a company record of 4,124 MMcf/d, up 19% year-over-year, while compression volumes rose 17% to 4,036 MMcf/d
• The company is using $371 million from Veolia damages plus revolver borrowings to redeem $650 million in 2028 senior notes, expecting leverage to fall below the 3.0x target
• Total operating expenses increased to $145.34 million from $119.03 million year-over-year, with direct operating costs rising to $84.53 million, pressuring margins despite revenue growth

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled potential rate hikes if inflation doesn't progress toward the 2% target, with July PCE inflation at 3.7% and core PCE at 3.3%. Despite market expectations for stable rates, persistent inflationary pressures from tariffs and energy costs make a rate increase before year-end increasingly likely. This stance puts the Fed at odds with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's efforts to lower borrowing costs.

• July PCE inflation reached 3.7%, nearly twice the Fed's 2% target, while core PCE rose 3.3%, indicating inflation is not merely an energy-price issue
• Tariff effects could persist for 9-12 months according to NY Fed research, with about 26% of tariff increases passed through to consumer prices, creating ongoing inflationary pressure
• Three FOMC officials already preferred a rate hike at the July meeting, and Fed Cleveland President Beth Hammack stated a rate increase is necessary if inflation remains around 3% at year-end

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh signaled that US interest rates may need to rise unless inflation recedes, stating the Fed 'will have work to do' to meet its mandate. His remarks at Jackson Hole came amid pressure to demonstrate independence from President Trump, who appointed him and prefers rate cuts. US inflation stands at 3.7%, well above the Fed's 2% target, driven by energy costs from the Iran conflict and escalating trade tensions with Canada.

• Warsh stated the Fed must be confident inflation is moving toward its 2% objective 'clearly and at sufficient speed' or else 'we have work to do', marking a shift from his previous stance against forward guidance
• US inflation reached 3.7% with cars up 5% and utilities up 3.5% annually, fueled by Trump administration policies including the Iran war and Canada trade war
• Market expectations shifted dramatically after the speech, with odds of a September rate hike moving from 35% to nearly 50-50, testing Warsh's credibility and Fed independence

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, signaling the Fed may raise interest rates if inflation remains elevated. Warsh recommitted to the Fed's 2% PCE inflation target and emphasized that short-term interest rates remain the central bank's primary policy tool. The speech puts Warsh at odds with President Trump's demands for lower rates ahead of the critical September Fed meeting.

• Warsh cited multiple inflation measures showing prices remain elevated: 54% of PCE components ran above 3% annualized inflation over 12 months, while the consumer price index stands at 3.4% versus the Fed's 2% target
• Warsh clarified that short-term interest rates are the Fed's 'predominant tool' and that AI developments and balance sheet considerations have 'no bearing on decisions we make in the current policy conjuncture'
• The hawkish stance directly contradicts Trump's continued demands for rate cuts and raises questions about whether Warsh will act before November midterm elections, as Trump has broken tradition by maintaining direct contact with the Fed chairman

Russian gas producer Gazprom reported a 12% decline in first-half 2025 profit to 864 billion roubles ($10 billion), primarily due to a stronger rouble negatively impacting results reported in local currency. However, second-quarter profit surged over 60% year-on-year to 518.6 billion roubles, supported by higher oil and gas prices.

• Second-quarter net income jumped more than 60% to 518.6 billion roubles, driven by higher oil and gas prices
• A stronger rouble weighed on first-half results since many sales are paid in international currencies, making rouble-denominated results comparatively weaker
• Gazprom expects 6-7% growth in core earnings this year from increased domestic supplies and exports to China, after losing most European customers since 2022

The Federal Reserve faces conflicting data as core PCE inflation held at 3.3% year-over-year in July 2026 while consumer confidence fell to a seven-month low and new home sales dropped 10.5%. Bitcoin miners are emerging as beneficiaries of US data center infrastructure constraints, as red tape rather than capital now limits build-out and miners hold pre-approved grid connections that can be redirected to AI applications.

• Bitcoin investment products saw $1.65B in inflows during the first three days ending 27 Aug 2026, following a $2.94B weekly inflow (the largest of 2026), with Bitcoin reclaiming its 200-day moving average after 270 sessions
• US data center vacancy has fallen from 10% in 2019 to around 1% today, while capacity seeking grid connection stands at roughly 2,060 gigawatts against total installed US generating capacity of 1,300 gigawatts
• Average connection time for new data center facilities now reaches five years, giving Bitcoin miners with existing energized infrastructure a substantial premium as they face no regulatory hurdles to switching capacity into AI applications

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh stated at the Jackson Hole retreat that there may be 'work to do' on inflation, noting that recent summer readings have not shown meaningful improvement in underlying trends. While medium-term inflation estimates appear stable, Warsh avoided providing specific guidance on interest rate policy, leaving markets uncertain about potential action at the Fed's September meeting.

• Inflation hit 3.4% in July, down from above 4% in May but still well above the Fed's 2% target, with higher oil prices from the war in Iran and gas above $4 per gallon pressuring consumers
• Traders see only 35% odds of a quarter-point rate hike at the September 16 Fed meeting, despite calls from some Fed officials like Cleveland's Beth Hammack to act soon on persistent inflation
• Treasury yields have surged in recent weeks, signaling investor doubts about the Fed's commitment to fighting inflation, even as the Treasury announced plans to double debt buybacks to roughly $4 billion

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his first keynote address at the 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, emphasizing that the Fed's primary focus should be on achieving its 2% inflation target. Warsh criticized the practice of forward guidance about future rate decisions, arguing it should be limited in ordinary times. His speech comes as the Fed has held rates steady through five meetings this year amid persistent inflation concerns.

• Warsh stated the Fed's 2% inflation target is 'a firm, fixed target' with 'no excuses,' emphasizing price stability is not self-executing and inflation is not necessarily mean-reverting
• The Fed chair formally opposed forward guidance as a regular practice, saying it has 'outstayed its welcome' since the financial crisis and risks 'creating ambiguity in the name of clarity'
• Warsh announced the Fed created an AI task force to monitor AI's impact on productivity, employment, and economic development, noting progress has been faster than anticipated with potential for substantially higher growth

French quantum computing company Pasqal began trading on Nasdaq after merging with SPAC Bleichroeder Acquisition Corp II in a deal valuing the company at approximately $2 billion. The loss-making firm secured around $360 million in cash to expand production and develop fault-tolerant quantum computing, with backing from France's state bank Bpifrance.

• The listing follows President Trump's push for U.S. agencies to accelerate quantum technology development, with the Commerce Department signing preliminary agreements for about $2 billion in incentives to nine quantum companies, though Pasqal is not among them
• Pasqal received financing support from France's state bank Bpifrance as part of the merger transaction
• Quantum processors are being developed for specialized applications in drug discovery, materials science, and financial modeling, but persistent errors continue to limit their reliability at scale

U.S. stock markets opened mixed on Friday with the Dow gaining 85 points as investors awaited Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech for clues on interest rate policy. Chip stocks retreated after Thursday's AI-driven rally, with Marvell falling 7.17% on disappointing margin guidance despite raised revenue forecasts.

• Money markets priced in a 36% chance of a September rate hike, while Fed funds futures indicated 64% probability of rates remaining unchanged at the next meeting
• Marvell Technology dropped 7.17% after investors expressed concerns about timing of AI chip revenue from its Alphabet Google deal and current-quarter gross margin guidance disappointed
• Gap stock jumped on leadership change with Michael Francis becoming Old Navy CEO, while PayPal and Ulta Beauty declined on company-specific concerns

China's largest chipmaker CXMT reported a sharp turnaround to profitability in the first half of 2026, with revenue surging 873.64% year-over-year to 150.3 billion yuan ($22.36 billion). The company posted net profit of 77.6 billion yuan compared to a 2.3 billion yuan loss in the prior year, driven by surging memory chip prices and strong global demand for computing power.

• CXMT expects the global DRAM shortage to persist through the second half of 2026, supporting continued strong pricing
• The company has shipped samples of its new LPDDR6 DRAM chips with 12,800 Mbps data transfer speeds and 16GB capacity for use in mobile devices, servers, and smart cars
• CXMT warned that escalating global trade tensions and potential restrictions from 'relevant countries' could destabilize its supply chain and adversely impact production operations

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh delivered a speech at Jackson Hole that LPL Financial's chief economist Jeffrey Roach suggests may contain limited direct guidance, with the most important policy clues potentially hidden in footnotes and citations. Roach advises market participants to focus on references revealing what influences Warsh's thinking rather than expecting explicit policy roadmaps. Gold prices declined slightly to $4,592.07 per ounce following the speech.

• Key topics to watch include Fed credibility, excessive communication criticism, AI's impact on productivity offsetting inflation, and Treasury buybacks' effect on long-term interest rates
• Roach recommends analyzing footnotes and citations to understand who is influencing Warsh's thinking and where policy discussions may be headed, rather than expecting direct policy guidance
• Gold slid 0.22% to $4,592.07 per ounce as markets reacted to the Jackson Hole conference focused on financial innovation