General Market News

Manpreet Kohli, the 45-year-old CEO of cryptocurrency company Saitama, lost his UK extradition fight and faces trial in the U.S. on wire fraud and market manipulation charges. U.S. prosecutors allege he and co-conspirators secretly sold Saitama tokens worth billions while publicly claiming to hold them, with Kohli personally profiting around $20 million. A British judge rejected his challenge, and the case now goes to ministers for final approval.

• Saitama's ethereum-based token reached a market value of $7.5 billion at its peak before the alleged fraud was uncovered
• The case involved the FBI's first-ever creation of a digital token specifically designed to investigate and expose cryptocurrency crime
• Kohli remains free on £200,000 ($272,420) bail and can still appeal, though ministerial approval of extradition is typically a formality

U.S. software stocks have experienced extreme volatility in 2026, with the S&P 500 software and services index falling 33% from its October 2025 peak before bouncing 33% during earnings season, then declining again. The swings are driven by momentum trading, leveraged ETFs, and uncertainty about AI's impact on the sector, despite second-quarter earnings growth of 24.4% exceeding the 16.4% expectation.

• Leveraged ETFs have exploded from 28 single-stock products at end of 2023 to 486 currently, with about 63 focused on software companies, amplifying daily price swings through mandatory rebalancing
• Microsoft exemplified the volatility with an eight-session 29% surge following its July 29 earnings, highlighting how momentum trading magnifies sector movements beyond fundamental improvements
• The index remains down more than 3% year-to-date and over 12% below its October record, with investors cautious about AI evolution despite better-than-expected earnings results

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, rose 0.2% monthly and 3.7% annually in July 2026, exceeding economist expectations. The annual increase came in higher than the forecasted 3.6%, while core PCE matched expectations at 3.3% year-over-year. Inflation remains well above the Fed's target, potentially influencing future monetary policy decisions.

• Monthly PCE increased 0.2%, matching core PCE's monthly gain, with annual PCE at 3.7% versus the expected 3.6%
• Core PCE (excluding food and energy) rose 3.3% annually, meeting expectations but still significantly above the Fed's typical 2% target
• The hotter-than-expected headline inflation reading may complicate the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions going forward

Mark Walter's TWG Global issued a statement denying fraud allegations and defending itself against what it called 'multipronged attacks' amid federal criminal and civil investigations. The investigations focus on accounting for related-party financial transactions by two of Walter's insurance companies under the Group 1001 umbrella.

• TWG Global stated 'despite what has been reported, there has been no fraud' at the company or its subsidiaries
• The company and Group 1001 insurance companies have presented a plan to address regulatory concerns
• TWG attributed recent reports to 'unnamed sources with self-serving interests' and asserted it stands behind the integrity of its business

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index, showed core prices increased 3.3% annually in July. This came in below economist expectations of 3.6% year-over-year growth, suggesting some easing in inflationary pressures that the Fed monitors closely for policy decisions.

• Core PCE price index rose 3.3% annually in July, below the 3.6% forecast by Dow Jones-surveyed economists
• Monthly PCE inflation was expected to increase 0.1% according to consensus estimates
• The PCE index is the Fed's preferred gauge for tracking inflation trends and informing monetary policy decisions

US stock futures were flat Wednesday morning as traders awaited two critical events: core PCE inflation data at 8:30 am ET (expected to hold at 3.3%) and Nvidia's earnings after the close. The dual catalysts come as investors seek evidence that massive AI infrastructure spending is delivering returns, while the bond market remains on edge ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole appearance.

• Core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is expected to remain at 3.3%; a higher reading could complicate Fed policy ahead of Jackson Hole
• Nvidia's networking business surged from roughly $3 billion quarterly two years ago to nearly $15 billion last quarter, with analysts expecting close to $17 billion this quarter—representing 200% year-over-year growth versus 77% for compute
• The Nvidia results serve as a broader health check for the AI trade, as investors increasingly demand proof that substantial AI infrastructure investments are generating tangible returns

China's CNOOC Ltd reported record first-half net profit, driven by higher oil prices related to the Iran war and increased production. Oil and gas sales revenue jumped 20% to 206.1 billion yuan as the company's average realized oil price rose 23.6% to $85.49 per barrel.

• Net oil and gas production reached a record 398.7 million barrels of oil equivalent, up 3.7%, with crude oil and liquids production increasing 4.8% to 310.3 million barrels
• The company maintained its annual production target of 780-800 million boe and capital expenditure guidance of 112-122 billion yuan, with first-half capex totaling 62 billion yuan
• CNOOC made four new oil and gas discoveries in China including in Bohai Bay, and secured three new exploration blocks in Brazil and Indonesia

Mortgage rates rose to 6.78% for 30-year fixed-rate loans, the highest level in three weeks, causing total mortgage application volume to drop 1% for the week. Refinance applications fell 17% year-over-year while purchase applications declined 5% compared to the same period last year, indicating weakening demand across the housing market.

• The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased to 6.78% from 6.77%, with refinance applications falling 2% week-over-week and down 17% from a year ago when rates were only 9 basis points lower
• Purchase applications decreased 0.3% for the week and were 5% lower year-over-year, with FHA applications particularly weak at down 7% over the week
• The average refinance loan size hit its lowest level since June 2025, while the purchase market has shown notable slowdown over the past two months

China's Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group reported a 36% increase in first-half profit to 4.26 billion yuan ($633.90 million), beating analyst forecasts. The growth was driven by strong sales of innovative medicines and higher investment income, as the company shifts focus toward proprietary drugs amid Beijing's centralized bulk buying programs that have pressured traditional drug revenues.

• Net profit reached 4.26 billion yuan for the six months ended June 30, exceeding HSBC Qianhai Securities' forecast of 2.9 billion yuan
• Revenue from innovative medicines rose 15.4% to 7.09 billion yuan, now accounting for 85.4% of total revenue compared to 82.7% a year earlier
• Other income more than doubled to 1.32 billion yuan, boosted by gains from unlisted equity investments through life-science venture capital funds

French sugar producer Tereos expects sugar beet yields to drop over 20% due to extreme heat and drought this summer, contributing to EU sugar output falling to a 38-year low. The company will shorten its production campaign at eight French factories to 100 days from 130 days last year in response to the weather-damaged crop.

• Sugar beet yields expected to decline more than 20% compared to last year due to extreme weather conditions
• Tereos will reduce production campaign duration by 23% (from 130 days to 100 days average) across its eight French factories
• EU sugar output projected to hit lowest level in 38 years as severe weather impacts crop production across the region

Iran and Oman are nearing an agreement to secure safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz, including a joint navigational corridor and mine-clearing operations. Oil prices fell below $90 per barrel as the deal progressed, while traffic through the Strait dropped to just five vessels on Tuesday compared to a 10-day average of 15. The U.S. has announced 'economic D-Day' sanctions on Iran but notably held back on secondary sanctions targeting Chinese financial firms after Beijing threatened retaliation.

• Transit through the Strait of Hormuz fell to 5 vessels on Tuesday, down from a 10-day average of 15 and significantly below pre-conflict levels of roughly one-third current traffic
• Brent crude oil prices dropped below $90 per barrel in response to the Iran-Oman deal, extending recent declines despite reduced shipping traffic
• The U.S. Treasury targeted 60 individuals and entities but avoided sanctioning Chinese financial firms that facilitate 90% of Iran's oil trade, citing concerns about disrupting the global financial system after China's retaliation threat

At least three Indian oil refiners and a global energy major will stop using vessels on Iran's newly announced blacklist of 45 ships, following Tehran's threats to take action against vessels conducting ship-to-ship (STS) transfers with blacklisted tankers. Iran claims these ships violated rules for crossing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global energy supplies, amid escalating tensions six months into the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.

• Iran's blacklist targets ships used by Saudi Aramco and ADNOC for 'shuttle runs' that move oil through the Strait of Hormuz for STS transfers in the Gulf of Oman, threatening fines, detention, and cargo confiscation
• Two of 12 blacklisted very large crude carriers stopped broadcasting their locations via AIS systems after the announcement, while others had already switched off transponders for weeks
• Analysts expect compliance-sensitive buyers to avoid blacklisted vessels, but predict trade will likely reroute through alternative tonnage and locations rather than cease, while potentially increasing freight, insurance, and risk premiums

Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained significantly depressed on Tuesday, with only 5 commodity vessels transiting the critical waterway compared to a 10-day average of 15. The reduced traffic through this vital Gulf shipping chokepoint continues to reflect disruptions affecting global energy and commodity flows.

• Just 5 vessels transited on Tuesday (2 LPG tankers, 1 bitumen tanker exiting; 2 empty product tankers entering), down 67% from the 10-day average of 15 vessels
• The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global energy chokepoint through which significant volumes of oil and gas typically flow
• Actual transit numbers may vary as some ships disable transponders during passage, making precise tracking difficult

India's Tilaknagar Industries is open to pursuing another large acquisition after its nearly $500 million purchase of Imperial Blue whisky brand from Pernod Ricard. The deal reflects growing consolidation in India's spirits market as the country is expected to overtake China as the world's largest spirits market by volume by 2032.

• Imperial Blue acquisition transformed Tilaknagar's scale, with revenue nearly tripling to $107.46 million in Q1 and the whisky brand accounting for nearly two-thirds of total sales volume
• Chairman Amit Dahanukar said the company would consider deals of similar scale (around twice their previous revenue) and is focused on craft spirits in the high-growth super premium and luxury segments
• India's fragmented market and state-level regulations create consolidation incentives, with the country expected to become the world's largest spirits market by volume by 2032 as millions reach legal drinking age annually

Oil prices fell over 2% on Wednesday as concerns about military conflict in the Gulf eased, with the U.S. shifting toward economic sanctions against Iran rather than military action. Brent crude dropped 2.52% to $86.35 per barrel while U.S. crude declined 2.17% to $80.56. The decline was driven by less severe sanctions than anticipated and diplomatic progress on managing the Strait of Hormuz.

• U.S. sanctions on Iran were less severe than markets had anticipated, reducing fears of supply disruptions in the Gulf region
• Iran and Oman are discussing a joint temporary shipping route in the Strait of Hormuz as a precursor to a permanent arrangement for managing the critical waterway
• Pakistan reported meaningful progress in de-escalation talks aimed at restoring navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, further easing supply concerns

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, which passed the House with bipartisan support in July 2025, faces a Senate procedural vote on September 15, but Kalshi prediction market traders estimate less than 25% odds it becomes law by year-end. The bill would establish clear regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC for overseeing digital commodities and crypto assets.

• Kalshi traders see less than 25% likelihood the Clarity Act becomes law by end of 2025, and less than 50% chance of implementation by April 2027, despite White House pressure
• Bitcoin has surged over 20% in the past week, driven by Trump's push for Congress to pass 'a fair version of the Clarity Act'
• CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated the agency will use existing authorities to establish a crypto regime if the bill stalls due to 'Democrat obstruction'

Markets are increasingly focused on the 2026 midterm elections, now 10 weeks away, as Democrats lead generic ballot polls by roughly 6 percentage points and are favored to win at least one chamber of Congress. A shift in congressional control from Republicans could significantly impact capital markets through potential debt ceiling standoffs, increased executive actions by President Trump, and election-related volatility.

• Analysts expect President Trump may pursue more aggressive executive actions if Democrats win control of at least one chamber, rather than working with the opposition party, continuing his pattern of market-moving unilateral policy decisions like tariffs.
• The U.S. is expected to hit its $41.5 trillion debt ceiling in mid-2027, and a split government could trigger a contentious negotiation similar to the 2023 standoff, potentially increasing Treasury yields and market volatility as the deadline approaches.
• A delayed or contested election result could disrupt markets, especially since control may not be decided quickly due to close races in states like California, leading to higher volatility and potential flight-to-quality moves into government debt.

Options traders are making large bullish bets on long-duration bonds, suggesting expectations that the nearly year-long bond rout may be ending. A major trader purchased $1 million in TLT call options betting on an 8% rally to levels unseen since March, which would signal lower long-term Treasury yields and potentially benefit equity markets.

• A trader bought 10,000 85-strike TLT calls and sold 15,000 90-strike calls for a net $625,000 outlay, targeting an 8% upside by November 20
• Long-duration bonds have suffered from yields rising to 19-year highs in the 30-year Treasury last week after Treasury Secretary Bessent increased government bond buybacks
• Key market events this week include the Fed's preferred PCE inflation gauge release, Nvidia earnings Wednesday, and the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium starting Thursday

Cornell researchers found that the AI sector overall is not in a bubble, but some individual companies like Alphabet show bubble-like characteristics with exuberant pricing. Using a new statistical method, the study identified that while Alphabet's stock has surged over 70% in the past year, most semiconductor companies' earlier bubbles following ChatGPT's 2022 launch have already collapsed.

• Alphabet currently shows strong overvaluation evidence with stock prices up more than 70% in the past year, outpacing the Nasdaq Composite's 20% growth
• Researchers developed a new SV-ADF statistical framework that can identify bubble dynamics at individual stock level rather than mislabeling entire sectors
• Nearly all semiconductor companies were in bubbles after ChatGPT's November 2022 release, and Tesla showed overvaluation signs in 2020, but these bubbles have since collapsed

Commodities trader Gunvor is in early-stage talks to acquire U.S. natural gas assets in the Haynesville shale basin from Silver Hill Energy Partners for between $1.2 billion and $1.5 billion. The deal would expand Gunvor's integrated shale gas production and marketing business, marking its second Haynesville acquisition this year as it bets on surging demand from data centers and LNG export facilities.

• Silver Hill's assets span 58,000 net acres in East Texas and Louisiana with production of approximately 370 million cubic feet equivalent per day
• Oklahoma-based Western Natural, which Gunvor backed earlier in 2024, would operate the assets if the deal succeeds
• The acquisition aligns with broader strategy by commodities traders like Vitol and Citadel to invest in upstream U.S. natural gas assets amid booming LNG export demand and geopolitical supply disruptions