General Market News

U.S. Treasury yields remained largely flat on Wednesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's policy decision at what could be Jerome Powell's final meeting as Fed chair. The Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75% amid stubborn inflation and a resilient labor market. Kevin Warsh, Powell's successor, is on track for Senate confirmation.

• The 10-year Treasury yield held steady at 4.358%, while the 2-year yield remained at 3.848% and the 30-year yield was little changed at 4.946%
• The Fed is expected to maintain a cautious pause on rate cuts as inflation remains sticky at around 3%, with policymakers signaling they will 'sit tight for a little while' to assess economic conditions
• Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Powell's successor appears assured after Sen. Thom Tillis ended his blockade following the DOJ dropping its investigation into Powell, with the Senate Banking Committee set to vote on Wednesday

Smokey Bones abruptly closed multiple locations across the US on April 28, including its Colonie, NY restaurant, giving employees same-day notice of permanent shutdowns. The closures follow parent company FAT Brands Inc.'s Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing in January and contradict earlier promises that operations would continue normally during restructuring.

• Restaurants in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, and Rhode Island shuttered simultaneously, with employees learning the morning of closures that operations were ending immediately
• The chain's website now lists all locations as closed every day of the week, despite FAT Brands stating in January that restaurants would 'remain open and operating as usual' during bankruptcy proceedings
• Smokey Bones has rapidly contracted from roughly 130 locations at its peak to 26 by 2025, with 15 'underperforming units' already closed in September 2025 before this latest wave of shutdowns

The European Central Bank and Bank of England will announce monetary policy decisions this week amid rising inflation driven by the Iran war and concerns about stagflation. Both central banks are expected to keep rates on hold at 2% (ECB) and 3.75% (BOE) despite inflation above their 2% targets, as March data shows the conflict is already weighing on economic growth and confidence.

• Euro zone inflation stands at 2.5% while U.K. inflation hit levels above central banks' 2% targets, with energy prices spiking due to the Iran conflict that began in late February.
• Economists expect both banks to maintain current rates and 'look through' the inflation noise, with potential ECB rate hikes of 25 basis points possible at the June meeting if second-round effects emerge.
• BOE's nine-member committee is expected to vote 8-1 to hold rates unchanged for the rest of 2026, prioritizing growth concerns over inflation risks as surveys suggest a more front-loaded economic hit than in 2022.

Wall Street closed lower on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq falling 0.9% as semiconductor and technology stocks tumbled amid concerns over OpenAI's slower-than-expected growth. Oil prices surged over 3% to $99.50 per barrel due to the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, while the Federal Reserve began its two-day policy meeting with rate cuts not expected until December.

• Major chipmakers led declines: ARM Holdings dropped nearly 6%, with Applied Materials, Broadcom, AMD, and Nvidia all falling 2-3% on concerns that OpenAI missed user growth targets and revenue goals for ChatGPT
• WTI crude oil jumped 3.2% to $99.50 per barrel, trading roughly 50% above pre-conflict levels as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed amid US-Iran tensions
• The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates steady, with market expectations for rate cuts pushed back to December due to rising inflation driven by higher energy prices

Demand for Huawei's Ascend 950 AI chips has surged following DeepSeek's V4 model launch, which is optimized to run on Huawei hardware. Major Chinese tech firms including ByteDance, Tencent, and Alibaba are scrambling to secure chip orders as US export restrictions limit access to Nvidia's advanced processors. This marks a pivotal shift toward China's domestic semiconductor ecosystem, though supply constraints are expected to persist through 2026.

• Huawei's Ascend 950PR outperforms Nvidia's H20 chip (banned in China) but still trails the H200, creating market opportunity as H200 shipments remain stalled due to US-China disagreements
• Huawei plans to ship approximately 750,000 units of the 950PR chip in 2026, with mass production starting in April, though output will likely fall short of demand due to US equipment restrictions
• DeepSeek V4 deployed immediately on Alibaba Cloud Bailian and Tencent Cloud platforms at launch, with pricing expected to decline in H2 2026 once Huawei supernodes ship at scale

British luxury carmaker Aston Martin reported a narrower first-quarter loss on April 29 and secured a new funding agreement worth 50 million pounds ($67.52 million) with its top investor. The development signals ongoing efforts by the struggling automaker to strengthen its financial position.

• Aston Martin's Q1 loss narrowed compared to the previous period, showing some financial improvement
• The company signed a $67.52 million (50 million pounds) funding deal with its largest investor
• The funding arrangement comes as the luxury carmaker continues working to stabilize its finances

Jerome Powell's tenure as Federal Reserve chair is expected to end as the Senate votes on Kevin Warsh's confirmation on Fed Day. The FOMC is certain to hold rates unchanged, with futures pricing no policy changes until 2027, but uncertainty looms over how Warsh will handle White House pressure for aggressive rate cuts. Markets are cautious amid Fed leadership transition and geopolitical tensions with Iran.

• Fed funds futures price 100% probability of a rate hold, with no expected policy changes until well into 2027
• Powell's legacy centers on his independence amid relentless pressure from President Trump, who originally appointed him; it remains unclear if Powell will stay on as a Fed governor after his chair term ends May 15
• Asian chipmakers declined after reports that OpenAI missed internal revenue and user targets, raising concerns about sustainability of massive data center spending

The U.S. Treasury warned financial institutions on Tuesday that they risk sanctions if they engage with Chinese 'teapot' refineries processing Iranian oil. China purchases approximately 90% of Iran's oil exports, with small independent refineries accounting for the majority of imports. The warning comes as part of Trump's 'maximum pressure' campaign against Iran and ahead of a planned U.S. visit to Beijing.

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that Iran's main export terminal on Kharg Island is nearing storage capacity, which could force Tehran to cut production and lose about $170 million in daily revenue
• Iranian crude is typically transported via 'shadow fleet' tankers with manipulated location data, often relabeled as 'Malaysian blend' through ship-to-ship transfers to disguise origins
• The Treasury has already sanctioned Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) Refinery, one of China's largest teapot refineries, along with four others, and is targeting port operators and logistics providers in Shandong Province

Australia's first-quarter inflation reached 4.09%, the highest level in over two years, though slightly below the 4.2% forecast. The Reserve Bank of Australia is considering potential interest rate hikes as inflation remains above its 2%-3% target range, with rising oil prices and Middle East tensions adding to inflation risks.

• Inflation hit 4.09% in Q1, below the 4.2% Reuters consensus but marking the highest rate since Q4 2023
• RBA policymakers agreed that interest rates may need to rise further, with the board viewing current inflation as 'too high' and citing oil price increases as a key risk
• Australia's economy grew 2.6% year-over-year in Q4, its fastest pace in two years and above expectations

Peru's state oil company Petroperu urgently needs $2 billion in loans backed by government guarantees to avoid halting fuel production at its refineries amid a severe debt crisis of $7.9 billion. The company warns fuel shortages could occur 'in the coming days' without immediate private financing, as high oil prices from Middle East conflicts strain operations.

• Two major refineries (Talara and Conchan) risk stopping production; Talara currently operates at 60,000 barrels per day, well below its 95,000-bpd capacity due to insufficient funds to purchase crude
• Petroperu's debt crisis stems from a $6 billion Talara refinery modernization that exceeded its original budget and resulted in the company losing its investment-grade rating in 2022
• Despite receiving $5.3 billion in state support over the past three years, private banks are willing to provide only $2 billion of the company's total $2.5 billion financing need

The Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), which oversees the grid for 15 U.S. states in the Midwest and South, announced its annual capacity auction shows sufficient electricity supply to meet peak summer demand. However, auction prices of $424 per megawatt-day signal elevated blackout risks remain. The auction cleared 3.5% above MISO's summer planning reserve margin target of 7.9%.

• Auction prices of $424 per megawatt-day indicate a tight balance between supply and demand, with elevated blackout risks persisting across much of MISO's territory
• Available capacity exceeded the target buffer by 3.5%, clearing above the summer planning reserve margin target of 7.9%
• Regional grid operators across the U.S. face challenges maintaining adequate reserve margins due to surging demand from energy-intensive data centers and electric vehicles

French utility EDF has delayed its decision to sell a stake in Italian subsidiary Edison, valued at 7-10 billion euros, due to disruptions in LNG supplies from Qatar caused by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. The conflict has blocked exports through the Strait of Hormuz and damaged QatarEnergy facilities, which is a long-term supplier to Edison. EDF had been exploring options including a minority stake sale or IPO to raise funds for nuclear reactor investment.

• EDF and advisers agreed at a Monday Paris meeting to monitor the situation for weeks before deciding next steps, with a reassessment planned for late May
• The war on Iran has nearly halted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with QatarEnergy cancelling Edison's LNG cargoes through mid-June and potentially extending force majeure beyond that date
• Edison is valued between 7-10 billion euros ($8-11.6 billion), with EDF working with Intesa Sanpaolo IMI and Lazard as financial advisers on strategic options

US stocks fell on Tuesday as concerns about OpenAI's revenue targets and rising oil prices weighed on sentiment. The S&P 500 dropped 0.49%, the Nasdaq fell 0.9%, and the Dow declined 0.05%. Technology and semiconductor stocks led the decline, while investors await major earnings reports from tech giants.

• OpenAI reportedly missed internal revenue and user targets, with its CFO warning about potential struggles to meet future computing contract obligations, triggering a 3% drop in the VanEck Semiconductor ETF and declines in Nvidia, Broadcom, and AMD
• Oil prices surged over 3% with WTI crude reaching $99.93 per barrel and Brent at $111.26 amid ongoing US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, which carries one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas
• Major tech earnings loom large with Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft reporting Wednesday and Apple on Thursday, representing roughly 44% of the S&P 500's total market capitalization

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady at its Wednesday meeting, with Chair Jerome Powell likely leading what could be his final policy decision before his term ends in May. Stubborn inflation running at 3% and elevated energy prices near $100 per barrel are preventing rate cuts despite a resilient but weakening labor market. Markets are pricing in a 100% probability of no rate change, with attention focused on Powell's transition to designated successor Kevin Warsh.

• Inflation remains at 3% on a core basis, well above the Fed's 2% target for five consecutive years, with crude oil prices near $100/barrel complicating the outlook
• Kevin Warsh is expected to take over as Fed chair when Powell's term ends in May, reducing the significance of Powell's post-meeting guidance for future policy direction
• Powell has not confirmed whether he will remain as a Fed governor for the final two years of his term, citing an ongoing investigation into Fed headquarters renovations that was recently transferred from the Justice Department to the inspector general

Major U.S. companies including GM, Coca-Cola, and UPS are projecting resilience despite rising fuel and packaging costs stemming from the Iran war, which has driven oil prices sharply higher. While 24 firms have cut forecasts and many warn of financial hits, several executives expressed confidence in hedging strategies, locked-in contracts, and resilient demand to weather the disruption. Airlines remain the most exposed sector, with jet fuel prices nearly doubling since late February.

• A Reuters review found 24 companies withdrew or cut forecasts, 35 signaled price hikes, and 35 warned of financial impacts since the war began.
• Wall Street analysts raised Q1 S&P 500 earnings growth expectations to 16.1% from 14.3% pre-war, driven largely by tech and energy sectors.
• Airlines face the greatest risk with jet fuel prices nearly doubled since end-February, forcing carriers like JetBlue to cut capacity, slow hiring, and raise fares while managing pre-sold tickets.

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady at 3.5-3.75% at Wednesday's meeting, which may be Fed Chair Jerome Powell's final news conference before his term expires May 15. The Justice Department has dropped its investigation into Powell, clearing the path for Kevin Warsh's confirmation as the next Fed chair, potentially allowing him to assume the role by the June FOMC meeting.

• Powell's chairmanship ends May 15, though his Board of Governors term runs until January 2028, and he has not decided whether to remain as a governor after his chairmanship concludes
• Sen. Thom Tillis had vowed to block Warsh's confirmation until the DOJ investigation ended, viewing it as a threat to Fed independence; the case is now transferred to the Fed's inspector general
• Analysts suggest Powell may remain on the Board to provide 'institutional continuity' and serve as a 'stabilizing counterweight' during the transition to Warsh's leadership

The U.S. FDA launched a pilot program to monitor clinical trial data in real time, aiming to cut years from drug approval timelines by eliminating administrative delays. The initiative allows the FDA to access aggregated safety and efficacy signals from early-stage trials without waiting for companies to complete their own analysis. FDA Commissioner Marty Makary cited competition with China, which has led in Phase 1 trials since 2021, as a key driver for the program.

• Administrative tasks and paperwork currently consume 45% of the time from early drug testing to approval submission, creating 'dead time' the program aims to eliminate
• Initial pilots involve AstraZeneca's mantle cell lymphoma trial and Amgen's limited-stage small cell lung carcinoma study, with the FDA receiving only aggregated signals rather than raw patient data to preserve privacy
• The agency will accept public and industry comments until May 29, with final selection criteria expected in July and pilot selections completed in August

Major AI providers including GitHub and Anthropic are ending flat-rate subscription models and moving to usage-based billing, citing unsustainable infrastructure costs. GitHub Copilot will shift to credit-based pricing on June 1, 2026, while Anthropic now charges enterprise customers variable fees based on computing capacity used. The changes are expected to significantly increase costs for heavy users, with some estimates predicting bills will double or triple.

• GitHub Copilot maintains base prices ($10/month Pro, $19/month Business) but replaces unlimited usage with depleting credit balances starting June 1, 2026
• Anthropic's Claude Enterprise shifted from fixed $200/user/month to $20/user plus variable compute charges, potentially doubling or tripling costs for heavy users
• Enterprise finance teams face new forecasting challenges as AI costs now resemble utility bills based on activity rather than predictable headcount-based software subscriptions, with integration and compliance adding $5-$10 for every $1 spent on AI models

EU antitrust regulators opened an investigation into a proposed 1.42-billion-euro joint venture between Finnish forestry group UPM-Kymmene and South African wood fibre producer Sappi, warning the deal may reduce competition and lead to price hikes in Europe's paper market. The Commission raised concerns about the companies' combined market power in coated mechanical and wood free coated paper, with a decision expected by October 26.

• The joint venture would combine UPM's communication papers unit with Sappi's graphic paper business in Europe as the industry faces falling demand, overcapacity, and high energy costs
• EU regulators warn the deal could reduce production capacity and result in higher prices and lower quality paper for customers including printers and publishers
• The companies will likely need to offer concessions such as asset sales to address competition concerns and secure regulatory approval

The Magnificent 7 tech companies (Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple) are set to report Q1 2026 earnings this week, with investors focused on AI monetization capabilities. The S&P 500 is projected to achieve its sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth at 15.1%, driven primarily by a 46% expansion in the Information Technology sector. Key concerns include whether AI investments in products like Microsoft's 365 Copilot and Google's Gemini are generating sufficient returns to justify massive capital expenditures.

• Early Q1 results show strong performance with 84% of S&P 500 companies beating EPS estimates and 81% beating revenue estimates, both above historical averages
• Wednesday, April 29 is the critical reporting day when Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon all release results, with AWS growth expected to exceed 20% for Amazon to prove competitiveness
• Economic headwinds include March retail sales jumping 1.7% (driven largely by 15.5% gasoline spike) and consumer sentiment dropping to 49.8, comparable to July 2022 lows, amid inflation concerns