General Market News

Chip stocks experienced a dramatic reversal in April 2026, with Nasdaq's semiconductor index surging 35.2% after declining 6.3% in March. The rally followed easing investor concerns about massive AI infrastructure spending by hyperscalers, supported by strong earnings from major chipmakers including Intel, AMD, and Nvidia. Analysts describe the month's performance as 'historic,' though some warn the market may be overlooking supply chain risks from the Iran war.

• Nasdaq's PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index rose 35.2% in April 2026, marking winning streaks not seen since the 1970s according to analysts
• Intel had its best single-day performance last Friday on stronger-than-expected earnings, while AMD and Nvidia also posted significant gains
• Despite the rally, supply chain bottlenecks persist due to the Iran war, including curtailed helium exports critical for chipmaking and flight path disruptions affecting equipment delivery

US stock index futures rose modestly on Friday following April's exceptional rally, which saw the S&P 500 gain 10.4%, its best monthly performance since 2020. Apple shares climbed 3% premarket on strong earnings, while Roblox plunged 21% after slashing annual guidance. Markets are entering the historically weaker May-October period at elevated valuations.

• S&P 500 surged 10.4% in April (best since Nov 2020), Nasdaq jumped 15.3% (best since April 2020), and Dow rose 7.14%, closing above 7,200 for the first time
• Apple reported record $111.2B quarterly revenue (up 17% YoY) with iPhone sales up 22% to ~$57B and Services hitting an all-time high of ~$31B, despite flagging rising memory costs
• Roblox cut full-year bookings guidance to $7.33B-$7.6B from $8.28B-$8.55B due to lower engagement from age-gating measures and child safety legal settlements; oil remains elevated at $111.63/barrel (Brent July contract)

The S&P 500 closed April 2026 at a record high with gains exceeding 10%, marking its best monthly performance since November 2020. Strong corporate earnings and AI infrastructure investment offset concerns about oil prices hitting four-year highs above $120/barrel amid Iran conflict. The rally was led by technology and communication services sectors, though Federal Reserve Chair Powell warned that rising energy costs could sustain inflationary pressures.

• S&P 500 rose over 10% in April, its fifth consecutive weekly gain, while Nasdaq posted its largest monthly advance since April 2020
• Major tech firms (Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta) collectively invested approximately $130 billion in AI data center infrastructure, driving sector strength
• Oil volatility pushed Brent crude above $120/barrel and U.S. gasoline to $4.30/gallon (up $0.27 in one week), with Fed signaling caution on inflation outlook

A global shortage of base oils, critical components for high-performance lubricants used in luxury and supercar engines, is escalating due to ongoing disruption through the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran war. The Gulf region supplies 20% of global Group III base oils and accounts for 72% of European imports, with analysts warning stocks could run dry within a month if shipping remains disrupted.

• Group III base oil prices in northern Europe have surged nearly 100% since the conflict began, reaching record highs as Iran missile strikes damaged Shell's Qatar facility and producers declared force majeure
• South Korea, a major base oil exporter, imposed mandatory export caps to protect domestic supply, while the U.S. faces sustained pressure until at least 2027 with 44% of supply typically coming from the Persian Gulf
• The Independent Lubricant Manufacturers Association warned U.S. lawmakers there are 'no clear near-term solutions,' with disruptions rippling across automotive, industrial, aviation, and marine sectors

Huawei expects its AI chip revenue to surge at least 60% in 2026, reaching approximately $12 billion compared to $7.5 billion in 2025, driven by strong demand from Chinese companies for domestic chip alternatives. The growth is fueled by orders for its latest Ascend processor 950PR, which entered mass production in March.

• Revenue projected to reach $12 billion in 2026, up from $7.5 billion in 2025, representing at least 60% growth
• Majority of orders are for the Ascend 950PR processor, which began mass production in March 2026
• Huawei plans to launch an upgraded version of its 950DT processor in the fourth quarter of 2026

British discretionary retail sales fell 1.6% year-on-year in April, marking the weakest April performance in a decade outside of the pandemic, according to accountancy firm BDO. Weak consumer confidence and rising living costs driven by higher fuel prices related to the Iran war weighed heavily on spending. Sales declined across fashion, homewares, and lifestyle categories for the first time since March 2018.

• April typically sees a seasonal lift in retail sales, making the decline particularly concerning for retailers according to BDO's head of retail and wholesale
• Rising fuel prices due to the Iran war drove up costs of essentials from an already high base, further straining household budgets
• The Confederation of British Industry reported the sharpest year-on-year decline in retail sales in more than 40 years amid inflation fears

U.S. military officers at a training facility in Germany highlighted the strategic benefits of American troop presence in the country, one day after President Trump said he was reviewing whether to reduce the approximately 35,000 active-duty personnel stationed there. Officers emphasized the importance of deterring adversaries, training with NATO allies on European terrain, and learning drone warfare lessons from the nearby Russia-Ukraine conflict.

• Germany hosts about 35,000 U.S. active-duty personnel and serves as the U.S. military's largest European footprint, including the Hohenfels training facility spanning 163 square kilometers
• U.S. troops are actively studying drone use and electronic warfare tactics observed in the Russia-Ukraine war, with officers noting 'it is nearly impossible to hide' from constant aerial surveillance
• Officers stated that training with NATO allies builds critical interoperability for potential conflicts, though they declined to comment directly on Trump's potential troop reduction plans

The US economy grew at a 2% annualized rate in Q1 2025, slightly below expectations, while jobless claims fell to 189,000—the lowest since 1969. Core inflation remained elevated at 3.2% year-over-year in March, prompting the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged as it balances a strong labor market against persistent price pressures.

• Initial jobless claims dropped to 189,000, a 55-year low, while continuing claims fell to 1.79 million, reflecting a 'low-hire, low-fire' labor market with unemployment at 4.3%
• GDP growth of 2% came in below the 2.2%-2.3% forecast as consumer spending cooled due to higher prices and energy cost spikes tied to the Iran conflict
• Stock markets rallied sharply with the Dow surging over 800 points despite sticky inflation, as investors bet on sustained economic expansion supported by strong corporate earnings

US stocks surged on Thursday with the Dow jumping 790 points (1.62%) and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting record highs, driven by strong corporate earnings from Caterpillar and Alphabet. The rally capped the best monthly performance in years for major indexes, with the S&P 500 up over 10% in April despite elevated oil prices and persistent inflation concerns.

• Caterpillar beat earnings expectations and raised annual revenue guidance, while Alphabet reported strong Q1 revenue and boosted 2026 capex guidance to as much as $190 billion
• April marked exceptional monthly gains: S&P 500 up 10% (best since Nov 2020), Nasdaq up 15% (best since April 2020), and Dow up 7% (best since Nov 2024)
• US GDP grew 1.7% in Q1 and jobless claims hit their lowest since 1969, though oil prices remain elevated around $114/barrel for Brent crude and inflation persists above 3%

The Nasdaq Composite surged 15.29% in April 2026, marking its best month since April 2020 at the start of the Covid pandemic. Strong earnings from major tech companies like Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta drove the rally, helping the sector recover from a difficult start to the year marked by AI disruption fears.

• Alphabet climbed 34% in April, its best month since going public in 2004, while chip stocks Marvell and Broadcom surged 53% and 74% respectively
• Intel stock doubled during the month, representing the best performance in the company's 55-year history, driven by rising data center demand
• The April rally reversed earlier losses, with the Nasdaq now up 7% year-to-date after being down roughly 7% at the end of March

The U.S. economy grew at a 2% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2025, rebounding from sluggish fourth-quarter growth of 0.5%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The growth was primarily driven by AI-related investment in equipment and data centers, consumer spending on healthcare services, and increased government spending following the resolution of a federal shutdown. The figure fell slightly short of the 2.3% forecast by economists.

• AI buildout was a major growth driver, with investment concentrated in computers, related equipment, and intellectual property like software, while residential and nonresidential structures declined
• Consumer spending rose mainly in healthcare services (hospital, nursing home, and outpatient care), with real final sales to private purchasers increasing 2.5% compared to 1.8% in Q4
• Economists warn that while AI investment may boost long-term productivity, it could add near-term inflationary pressures, and growth remains unevenly distributed across 'affluent consumers, AI-investment and exports'

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will remain as a Fed governor after his term expires in May, creating an unprecedented situation where he will serve alongside incoming Chair Kevin Warsh at the June FOMC meeting. This marks the first time in nearly 80 years that a sitting and former Fed chair will conduct business together, raising potential for policy tensions as Warsh has publicly called for rate cuts while current economic conditions show elevated inflation at 3.2%.

• Three regional Fed presidents dissented at the last meeting, potentially signaling resistance to premature rate cuts that Warsh has advocated for
• Core inflation remains at 3.2% in March, well above the Fed's 2% target, while jobless claims hit their lowest level since 1969, providing little justification for policy easing
• Powell pledged to 'keep a low profile' and not act as a 'shadow chair,' though analysts note the situation stems from broader concerns about central bank independence

President Donald Trump announced he will remove tariffs and restrictions on whiskey and bourbon trade cooperation between Scotland and Kentucky. The move reverses barriers that had limited inter-country trade, particularly involving wooden barrels used in whiskey production. This comes after the U.S. and UK signed a 2025 deal allowing a 10% baseline tariff on most British goods.

• Trump cited long-standing demand to restore 'great Inter-Country Trade' particularly related to wooden barrels used in whiskey production
• The U.S. and UK previously signed a 2025 trade deal that permits Washington to impose a 10% baseline tariff on most British imports
• The announcement specifically targets removing barriers to Scotland-Kentucky collaboration on whiskey and bourbon production

Tech investor Jack Selby warns that markets are underpricing the risk of Middle East sovereign wealth funds pulling back from AI investments due to ongoing conflicts. Middle East investors account for roughly 25% of global AI investments committed over the next five years, and their potential withdrawal could significantly impact data centers and tech companies. Selby also cautions that the eventual AI bubble burst could result in losses orders of magnitude larger than the dot-com crash.

• Middle East funds represent approximately a quarter of global AI investments for the next five years, with half dedicated to regional data centers and half to worldwide projects and infrastructure
• If UAE, Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries divert capital to domestic rebuilding amid prolonged conflict, the lost funding could severely impact data center projects and both public and private tech companies
• Selby predicts the AI bubble bust will be 'at least one more zero, probably two and three more zeros' larger than the dot-com crash, representing tens or hundreds of billions in losses due to current overinvestment

The U.S. biodiesel industry faces significant challenges meeting the EPA's record-high biofuel blending mandates requiring a 60% production increase in 2026. The EPA set targets of 5.4 billion gallons for 2026 and 5.7 billion for 2027, up from 3.35 billion in 2025, but industry experts and the EIA forecast potential supply deficits that could raise diesel prices and deplete compliance credit reserves.

• Monthly credit generation reached only 651 million in March versus the 915 million needed, with experts warning of 'big deficits' building into 2027
• The EIA forecasts combined 2026 supply of 5.05 billion gallons (1.52 billion biodiesel + 3.53 billion renewable diesel), falling short of the 5.4 billion gallon requirement
• Despite 6.85 billion gallons of total operable capacity, actual 2025 production was only 2.9 billion gallons, with industry citing feedstock supply constraints, tariff-driven construction costs, and uncertainty over the 45Z clean fuel credit program as barriers to expansion

Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman blamed retail investors for a sharp drop in his newly listed closed-end fund's stock price following its Wall Street debut on Wednesday. Ackman said he and his employees invested hundreds of millions of dollars in the new vehicle and expects the price to recover.

• Ackman attributes the fund's weak debut performance to retail trader activity rather than institutional investor behavior
• Ackman and his employees committed hundreds of millions in capital to the new closed-end fund vehicle
• Institutional investors in the fund include hedge fund manager Marc Lasry and Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg's family office

The U.S. Senate unanimously passed a rule immediately banning senators from trading on prediction markets. The decision addresses growing concerns about potential insider trading on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, as well as ethical issues surrounding event contracts involving death or violence.

• The ban took effect immediately following the unanimous Senate vote on Thursday
• The rule targets prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket amid insider trading concerns
• The move also addresses ethical concerns about event contracts that can involve death or violence

The first full week of May 2026 will feature significant employment data releases, including the ADP employment report on Wednesday and the U.S. employment report on Friday. Multiple Federal Reserve officials, including John Williams, Austan Goolsbee, Mary Daly, Michelle Bowman, and Christopher Waller, are scheduled to speak throughout the week. A busy earnings season continues with reports from major companies including McDonald's, Pfizer, PayPal, Uber, and Palantir Technologies.

• Key economic data includes the ADP employment report (Wednesday), weekly jobless claims (Thursday), and the full U.S. employment report with hourly wages data (Friday)
• Additional economic indicators scheduled: U.S. trade balance, ISM services PMI, job openings, new home sales, construction spending, and consumer credit data
• Multiple Fed officials will provide market commentary, culminating in a panel discussion Friday featuring four Fed representatives including governors Bowman and Waller

US inflation accelerated sharply in March 2025, with the Fed's preferred PCE price index rising 0.7% monthly and 3.5% annually—the highest since May 2023—driven primarily by a 24.1% surge in gasoline prices amid the Iran war. The data reinforces expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain elevated interest rates well into next year, as the central bank held rates at 3.50%-3.75% citing conflict-related inflation concerns.

• The PCE index jumped 0.7% in March, the largest monthly gain since June 2022, pushing the annual rate to 3.5% from 2.8% in February, well above the Fed's 2% target
• Gasoline prices surged 24.1% in March due to the Iran war, reaching nearly four-year highs this week and driving the inflation spike
• Core PCE inflation (excluding food and energy) held steady at 3.2% annually, while inflation-adjusted consumer spending rose only 0.2%, signaling slower economic growth ahead in Q2

The US economy grew at a 2% annual rate in Q1 2026, rebounding from a 0.5% expansion in Q4 2025 that was hampered by a 43-day federal government shutdown. However, consumer spending slowed to 1.6% growth and the outlook remains uncertain due to the Iran conflict, which has blocked the Strait of Hormuz and driven up energy prices.

• Federal government spending surged 9.3% annually in Q1, adding over half a percentage point to growth after subtracting 1.16 points in Q4 2025 during the shutdown
• Consumer spending, representing 70% of economic activity, decelerated to 1.6% growth from 1.9% in the prior quarter, with spending on goods falling slightly
• Business investment rose 8.7% driven by AI spending, while residential investment fell 8% for the fifth consecutive quarter; imports surged 21.4%, subtracting 2.6 percentage points from GDP growth