Would You Buy the SpaceX IPO?

• SpaceX revenue has grown from $1.4 billion in 2020 to an estimated $15.5 billion in 2025, with projections of $22-23 billion by 2026
• The IPO would value SpaceX at approximately 65x forward sales, with the company's reusable Starship rocket technology potentially reducing payload costs from $1,500 to under $100 per kilogram
• Motley Fool analysts expressed skepticism about buying at IPO due to the extreme valuation, suggesting waiting for a better entry point after initial trading

SpaceX IPO Summary

Key Facts:

• SpaceX plans to go public in 2026 at a potential $1.5 trillion valuation, which would make it the biggest IPO of all time
• The company aims to raise over $30 billion in the offering
• Revenue has grown from $1.4 billion in 2020 to an estimated $15.5 billion in 2024, with projections of $22-23 billion for 2026
• The company has achieved positive cash flow and currently holds an $800 billion private market valuation

Business Segments:

• Starlink: Satellite internet service representing ~70% of revenue with 8+ million subscribers
• Launch Services: Payload delivery for NASA and commercial satellites
• Starship: Fully reusable rocket system under development, targeting payload costs reduction from $1,500 to under $100 per kilogram

Market Implications:

• At $1.5 trillion valuation, SpaceX would trade at approximately 100x current sales or 65x forward 2026 sales
• Alphabet (GOOG) owns ~7% stake purchased for $900 million in 2014, potentially worth $110 billion at IPO valuation
• Closest public comparable is Rocket Lab (RKLB) with $30.3 billion market cap

Investment Considerations:

• Analysts express skepticism about the high valuation multiples
• Success heavily dependent on Starship's commercial viability and Starlink expansion
• Limited retail investor access expected at IPO launch
• Recommendation to wait for post-IPO price discovery rather than chase initial offering

The IPO represents a significant milestone for commercial space industry, though valuation concerns suggest cautious approach for investors.