General Market News

CNBC interviewed KOID, a Unitree G1 humanoid robot powered by Nvidia, about whether AI is in a bubble, with the robot giving a neutral response that 'only time will tell.' The $8,990-$128,900 robot represents China's push to dominate the humanoid robotics market, with manufacturer Unitree preparing for an IPO that could value it at $7 billion.

• KOID predicts humanoids will become integrated into daily life as home assistants and manufacturing workers, though the industry remains in a 'prototyping' stage
• Chinese companies like Unitree are racing to beat U.S. competitors including Tesla's Optimus robots, with Unitree winning recent robotics competitions
• The humanoid robotics market is heating up with players like Boston Dynamics and Agility Robotics, as companies bet on robots becoming key revenue drivers

The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes revealed an unusually divided board that debated extensively before approving a quarter-point interest rate cut, bringing rates to 3.5%-3.75%. The split reflects conflicting concerns about slowing job growth versus stalled progress on inflation, with officials now projecting only one rate cut for next year.

• Six officials opposed the December cut with two formally dissenting - an unusual outcome that has occurred at two consecutive meetings
• Some Fed members worried that progress toward the 2% inflation target had stalled, while others prioritized stabilizing a weakening labor market
• The 43-day government shutdown created data gaps that continue to complicate policymakers' risk assessments ahead of the January 27-28 meeting

Federal Reserve officials revealed deep divisions in their December rate cut decision, with three members dissenting over fears that inflation could become permanently 'entrenched' above the 2% target. The 9-to-3 vote exposed concerns that cutting rates while inflation remains elevated could signal the Fed is softening its price-control commitment. Officials warned that persistent inflation risks could shift the entire economy into a higher-inflation mode that becomes harder to break.

• Two dissenters (Goolsbee and Schmid) opposed any rate cut, citing inflation that had 'been above target for some time' with no progress toward the 2% goal over the past year
• Fed minutes revealed uncertainty about tariff impacts on prices, with officials reporting 'persistent input cost pressures unrelated to tariffs' from business contacts
• Committee signaled it's 'not on a preset course' for future cuts, meaning each decision will depend on fresh inflation data rather than following a mechanical schedule

Value stocks are positioned to outperform growth stocks in 2026 as investors rotate away from expensive tech names toward cheaper, undervalued sectors. Market breadth is widening with financials, industrials and consumer stocks leading gains, while favorable policy conditions including potential Fed rate cuts and Trump's tax relief plan could provide additional tailwinds.

• Equal-weighted S&P 500 outperformed cap-weighted index in late 2025, signaling broader market participation beyond mega-cap tech
• Macroeconomic tailwinds include potential Fed rate cuts, AI productivity gains spreading to non-tech sectors, and Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' tax relief
• Small caps trade at steep discount to large caps, but strategists warn investors must be selective as low valuations alone don't guarantee outperformance

Federal Reserve officials were split over December's 25-basis-point rate cut, with minutes revealing disagreement about whether to pause further reductions. While most policymakers supported continued easing if inflation declines as expected, some members preferred holding rates steady to assess the impact of previous cuts.

• Three officials dissented from the December decision: Stephen Miran wanted a larger 50-basis-point cut, while Austan Goolsbee and Jeffrey Schmid voted to keep rates unchanged
• The FOMC cut rates to a target range of 3.5% to 3.75%, with most participants expecting further cuts if inflation continues declining toward the Fed's 2% goal
• Policymakers agreed that inflation remains 'somewhat elevated' while labor market conditions have continued to soften, highlighting competing policy concerns

The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes revealed deep divisions among officials over the decision to cut interest rates by 0.25%, with the 9-3 vote marking the most dissents since 2019. Several supporters of the cut indicated the decision was 'finely balanced' and could have gone either way, as policymakers weighed labor market support against persistent inflation concerns.

• The rate cut lowered the federal funds rate to 3.5%-3.75%, with projections showing only one more cut likely in 2026 and another in 2027
• Officials cited stalled progress toward the 2% inflation target in 2025 and temporary impacts from Trump's tariffs as key concerns
• Four new regional Fed presidents rotating into voting roles in 2025 mostly lean hawkish, potentially making future cuts even more difficult

Deutsche Bank analysts forecast a dynamic 2026 driven by rapid AI investment, projecting an S&P 500 target of 8,000 while warning of significant volatility between boom-and-bust market narratives. The bank expects global growth to remain stable with the US re-accelerating, Germany rebounding strongly, and central banks maintaining cautious policy stances as inflation continues normalizing.

• S&P 500 projected to reach 8,000 by year-end 2026, with US growth re-accelerating from trade uncertainty resolution and AI capital expenditure expansion
• Germany positioned for major rebound via fiscal stimulus while China moderates; India expected to overtake Japan as 4th largest economy
• Fed expected to cut rates only twice more before pausing, with 10-year Treasury yields forecast at 4.45% and EUR/USD at 1.25 by year-end

Mexico will implement sweeping tariffs of up to 35% on imports from Asian countries without free trade agreements, starting Thursday. The measure targets thousands of products including automobiles, textiles, and steel from countries like China, India, and South Korea. The government aims to protect 350,000 domestic jobs and generate $3.76 billion in revenue while addressing trade imbalances.

• China expected to bear the greatest impact, though Mexico insists tariffs are not directed at any specific country
• Tariffs will apply to automobiles, auto parts, textiles, clothing, plastics, and steel from countries including China, India, South Korea, Thailand, and Indonesia
• Move seen by analysts as effort to appease Trump administration ahead of USMCA trade agreement review

President Trump called Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell a 'fool' and threatened to sue him over allegedly gross incompetence in managing the Fed headquarters renovation, which Trump claims will cost over $4 billion. Trump also reiterated his desire to fire Powell before his term expires in May 2026, despite lacking clear legal authority to do so.

• The Fed renovation project's cost rose from an initial $1.9 billion estimate in 2019 to nearly $2.5 billion as of 2025, though Trump claims it will exceed $4 billion
• Trump lacks authority to fire Powell except for cause, and Powell has insisted he will complete his term as Fed chair, which expires in May 2026
• Trump also criticized Powell for being 'too late' with interest rate decisions, except before the election when he was allegedly 'too early' to help the Democratic candidate

Schaeffers Research released a preview of their Top Stock Picks of 2026 report, highlighting three companies poised to benefit from market rotation and sector-specific tailwinds. The picks include Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) for its cash generation potential, Cameco (CCJ) for nuclear energy demand driven by AI infrastructure needs, and GigaCloud Technology (GCT) for e-commerce growth momentum.

• BMY has reclaimed its 200-month moving average and could benefit from capital rotation to cash-generative pharma stocks if interest rates remain stable
• CCJ is up over 80% year-to-date, capitalizing on increased nuclear power demand from AI data centers and geopolitical tensions favoring western suppliers
• GCT broke through a downtrend in late 2025 and hit a fresh 52-week peak in December at $36.75, three times its IPO price

JPMorgan analysts predict the Russell 2000 small-cap index will see limited gains in early 2026, with upside capped by interest rate pressures despite potential participation in broader market rallies. The index has traded in a broad range since 2021, and while base-case scenarios suggest holding above key support levels, recession risks could trigger significant downside to 1,633-1,740.

• Early 2026 targets range from 2,576 (December 2025) to 2,628 (mid-year), with base-case support at 2,232-2,235
• Rising Treasury yields pose headwinds for rate-sensitive small caps, limiting outperformance potential
• Recession scenario could drive index down to 2,042 support level or retest long-term support near 1,633-1,740

Silver prices surged to an all-time high of $84/oz before dropping 9% on Monday, prompting questions about a potential bubble, but Société Générale analysts argue the 160% year-to-date rally is supported by strong fundamentals rather than speculative excess. The bank expects continued volatility driven by China's upcoming export restrictions and persistent global supply deficits, though they don't anticipate U.S. tariffs on silver imports despite its new critical metal designation.

• China's export restrictions starting January 1 could reduce global refined silver supply by up to 30%, exacerbating existing deficits of 200-230 million ounces against 1.24 billion ounces of demand
• Silver's price action viewed on a logarithmic scale shows a stable 25-year compounding trend rather than a bubble pattern, with volatility amplified by market illiquidity
• Physical premiums are rising across key markets including China, London, and India due to geographical shortages of 1,000-ounce bars

President Trump threatened to sue Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for 'gross incompetence' over a renovation project that Trump claims is over budget by $1.5 billion. Trump alleged the Fed building renovation near the National Mall will cost over $4 billion, though the Fed's budget documents show costs at approximately $2.5 billion.

• Trump called Powell 'incompetent' for both the renovation costs and for not cutting interest rates quickly enough, despite the Fed issuing three quarter-point rate cuts in 2025
• The lawsuit would be an unprecedented move against a presidential appointee, with Trump comparing the Fed renovation costs unfavorably to his own past development projects
• Powell's term as Fed Chairman expires in May 2026, and Trump suggested he might still fire him despite previously saying he wouldn't

U.S. home affordability is improving with mortgage rates dropping to 6.19% and home prices essentially flat year-over-year, but first-time buyers still face a major hurdle as they need an average of 7 years to save for a down payment. Despite these challenges, pending home sales reached their highest level in nearly three years as buyers respond to increased inventory and better financing conditions.

• Mortgage rates have fallen from over 7% to 6.19%, saving buyers approximately $200 per month on a median-priced $410,000 home
• Active home listings are 12% higher than last year, though still 6% below pre-pandemic levels
• Eight major cities including Tampa, Phoenix, and Dallas are experiencing negative price growth while homeownership rates dropped to 65%, the lowest since 2019

US stock indices opened mostly flat Tuesday, with the Dow down 0.18%, S&P 500 off 0.09%, and Nasdaq declining 0.13% as technology sector weakness offset gains in energy stocks. Markets await Federal Reserve meeting minutes at 19:00 GMT for insights into the December rate cut decision and future policy direction.

• Energy sector leads with 0.49% gain driven by Middle East tensions while tech stocks drop 0.28%, with chip makers like Sandisk (-2.09%) and Western Digital (-1.77%) among major decliners
• Fed minutes expected to reveal internal debate between policymakers wanting additional easing versus those concerned about inflation risks, with traders pricing in a hold at January's meeting
• Precious metals volatility spills into equities as silver futures surged 7% before retreating, while 10-year Treasury yields edge up to 4.13% ahead of Fed release

US stocks traded flat Tuesday after two consecutive S&P 500 declines, with tech weakness persisting as traders await Federal Reserve minutes at 2 PM ET that will reveal policymaker discussions about 2026 rate cuts. Major indices showed minimal movement in thin holiday trading, while precious metals staged a notable recovery with silver surging 7% overnight.

• S&P 500 and Dow Jones traded near unchanged while Nasdaq edged down 0.1%, following Monday's losses of 0.35%, 0.5%, and 250 points respectively
• 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.11% as investors rotated into safer bonds amid year-end portfolio rebalancing
• Markets are pricing in two Fed rate cuts for 2026, but December meeting minutes will reveal divisions among policymakers on future policy

US stock futures remained flat Tuesday as investors await Federal Reserve meeting minutes and assess recent tech-driven losses. Markets showed cautious consolidation with minimal movement in Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures following Monday's pullback. The Fed minutes, due later today, represent one of the last potential market-moving events before year-end.

• US stocks have underperformed global peers by the widest margin since 2009, despite tech valuations soaring throughout the year
• Fed cut rates for a third time in December but signaled potential slowing or pause in easing for 2026, with 10-year Treasury yields holding above 4.1%
• XTB's Kathleen Brooks notes fading momentum into year-end with markets in consolidation mode during thinner holiday trading conditions

The article outlines 10 major AI trends expected to shape 2026, marking a shift from experimental hype to practical implementation as companies face pressure to deliver real results from their AI investments. The key themes include agentic AI systems taking on autonomous tasks, enterprises moving from pilots to production, and the growing importance of governance, data quality, and workflow redesign.

• Agentic AI systems that can complete tasks autonomously are moving from sandboxes to production, with cloud providers offering platforms to deploy entire teams of AI agents for customer service, finance, and supply chain operations
• Companies are running out of high-quality training data as the internet becomes flooded with AI-generated content, forcing a pivot to synthetic data, simulations, and carefully curated internal datasets
• The real challenge isn't the technology but organizational change - successful AI adoption requires completely redesigning workflows and processes rather than simply adding AI to existing operations

Real estate emerged as the only major U.S. stock sector to post negative returns in 2025, declining approximately 0.4% year-to-date. The sector's underperformance was primarily driven by elevated interest rates that pressured valuations and reduced the appeal of income-focused real estate stocks compared to fixed-income alternatives.

• Basic materials led all sectors with 36.3% gains, while communication services rose 31.1% and technology gained 22.7%
• High borrowing costs particularly hurt debt-heavy REITs, while office and retail segments faced weak demand and refinancing risks
• Despite the decline, analysts suggest real estate could recover if interest rates ease and property fundamentals improve in the coming year

Major US stock indices retreated Monday as tech sector weakness and a plunge in precious metals drove year-end selling across markets. The Nasdaq formed a new lower top at 23665.15, threatening the traditional Santa Claus rally, while the Dow and S&P 500 remain on track for their eighth consecutive monthly gain despite the pullback. Trading volumes are expected to remain light through Wednesday's year-end close as investors square positions.

• Nasdaq fell 0.50% to 23474.35, with potential support at the 50-day moving average (23226.59) and short-term 50% level (23178.58)
• S&P 500 declined 0.35% to 6905.74, maintaining 'buy the dip' mode with the 50-day MA at 6795.70 as key support
• Dow Jones dropped 0.51% to 48461.93, forming a potential double-top pattern at 48886.86 and 48782.00