General Market News

S&P 500 futures held near record highs on Thursday morning following a 1.46% gain to a record close the previous day, driven by falling oil prices after Iran peace headlines emerged. The selloff in crude oil reduced inflation concerns and triggered a rotation into growth and technology stocks, while energy and utility sectors lagged.

• White House officials reportedly neared a one-page memorandum of understanding with Iran to end the war, causing West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude to sell off sharply
• Technology, communication services, and industrials led gains with 9 of 11 S&P 500 sectors closing positive; Nasdaq Composite jumped over 2% to a record close
• June E-mini S&P 500 futures reached 7,410.50 with pivot support at 7,305.00; technical analyst notes the rally since March 31 has shown powerful momentum with only minor one-day setbacks

Asian chipmakers including TSMC, Samsung Electronics, and SK Hynix are driving a massive stock rally as their critical role in the AI supply chain generates record profits. Samsung's chip revenues leapt nearly 50 times last quarter, South Korea's KOSPI index has doubled in six months, and Samsung crossed $1 trillion in market cap. The surge has made Seoul the world's hottest stock market, though some analysts warn of overheating risks.

• Samsung's first-quarter profit increased eightfold with chips accounting for 94% of record 57.2 trillion won total; SK Hynix market cap surged from under $100 billion 16 months ago to nearly $800 billion
• Taiwan's GDP jumped 13.69% in Q1 (biggest in nearly four decades) and South Korea's rose 1.7% (fastest in nearly six years), with many Taiwan companies' production capacities fully booked through 2027
• Leveraged buying has reached record levels with a Hong Kong-listed SK Hynix ETF becoming the world's second-largest single-stock leveraged ETF, drawing $5.11 billion in seven months, prompting warnings the market is 'getting dangerous'

Japan appears to have intervened twice in currency markets during Golden Week to support the yen, spending an estimated $35 billion on April 30 and acting again on May 6 after the currency weakened past 160 per dollar. Analysts question the effectiveness of these interventions without accompanying monetary policy changes, as the 300 basis point interest rate gap between the U.S. and Japan continues to fuel yen weakness through carry trades.

• Japan may have spent 5.48 trillion yen ($35 billion) on April 30, with the yen strengthening nearly 3% that day and another 2% on May 6, though gains proved temporary as the currency resumed weakening between interventions.
• The Bank of Japan's policy rate remains at 0.75% versus the Federal Reserve's 3.50-3.75%, creating a 300 basis point gap that encourages investors to borrow in yen and invest in higher-yielding assets, driving capital outflows.
• Japan could face IMF scrutiny if it intervenes more than twice more by November to maintain its 'freely floating' currency status, while raising rates to support the yen risks further damaging an economy that narrowly avoided technical recession with 0.3% Q4 growth.

Rising diesel prices caused by the Iran war are accelerating China's transition to electric heavy trucks, with first-quarter 2026 sales of new-energy heavy trucks up 45% year-over-year to 44,000 units, now representing over a quarter of the segment. Diesel prices have jumped 27% since the war began in late February, making the economic case for electric trucks more compelling and expected to hasten the decline in fuel demand in the world's largest oil importer.

• Electric heavy trucks now account for 27% of China's new heavy truck sales in Q1 2026, up from less than 20% a year earlier, driven by government subsidies and significantly lower operating costs
• Lifetime costs for electric trucks are half those of diesel equivalents at current fuel prices, despite higher upfront costs (500,000+ yuan vs 300,000+ yuan for diesel)
• China's diesel consumption is expected to fall 4.3-5% in 2026, faster than pre-war forecasts, as electrification accelerates across both passenger vehicles and commercial trucks

The Middle East conflict has resulted in a projected loss of 120 billion cubic meters of global LNG supply from 2026 to 2030, according to the International Energy Agency. Iranian attacks have knocked out 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity, threatening supplies to Europe and Asia. EU storage levels are 30% below their five-year average, requiring an additional 10 bcm of gas to meet the 90% storage target.

• The conflict has cut LNG supply by approximately 15%, with lost volumes primarily from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates
• Iranian attacks have disabled 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity, impacting supplies ahead of the critical summer storage season
• EU gas storage is 30% below five-year averages, requiring an extra 10 bcm to reach the 90% target, while new liquefaction capacity is expected to partially offset losses

Norway's state-owned utility Statkraft reported first-quarter underlying operating profit of 11.6 billion Norwegian crowns ($1.25 billion), up from 9.0 billion crowns year-over-year, driven by Nordic power prices that nearly doubled to 90.5 euros per megawatt hour. The price surge resulted from colder weather, weak wind generation, and low hydrological reserves tightening regional power supply.

• Nordic benchmark power prices averaged 90.5 euros/MWh in Q1, almost double the 46.0 euros/MWh recorded in the same quarter last year
• Higher earnings were driven by elevated prices across all Norwegian price areas and increased contributions from Statkraft's Markets trading division
• Low reservoir and snow levels combined with reduced wind output created supply constraints, while geopolitical uncertainty added to market volatility across European energy markets

The European Central Bank reports that euro zone financial integration has progressed in debt and banking sectors since 2022, but equity markets remain fragmented with cross-border investment falling to historic lows. The ECB and European Commission are pushing for deeper integration to channel savings into investment and boost growth, but structural barriers continue to hinder capital market effectiveness.

• Cross-border lending, bond holdings, and market spreads have risen above long-term averages since 2022, showing progress in debt and banking integration
• Equity market integration has deteriorated, with cross-border investment within the bloc at historically low levels due to fragmented supervision, tax systems, and market infrastructure
• The ECB supports EU proposals including tax simplification, pension reforms, and stronger EU-level oversight, but signals more decisive action is needed to overcome national barriers like corporate and securities laws

China's financial regulator has instructed major banks to temporarily halt new loans to five refineries recently sanctioned by the U.S. for purchasing Iranian oil, according to Bloomberg News. The move affects major refiners including Hengli Petrochemical, China's largest private refiner, which was sanctioned in April for buying billions in Iranian crude. This guidance contrasts with China's Commerce Ministry directive from May 2 asking firms to dismiss the U.S. sanctions.

• Banks were told to suspend new yuan-denominated loans but not recall existing credit, based on verbal guidance from the National Financial Regulatory Administration issued before May 1
• The U.S. Treasury sanctioned Hengli Petrochemical in April for buying billions of dollars in Iranian oil, part of Washington's efforts to curb Tehran's oil revenue
• China's Commerce Ministry issued blocking measures on May 2 to protect Chinese firms from the U.S. sanctions, marking the first time China used such tools introduced in 2021

Space analytics firm HawkEye 360 raised $416 million in its U.S. initial public offering, the company announced on May 6, 2026. The IPO marks a significant capital raise for the space-based data analytics company as it enters public markets.

• HawkEye 360 successfully completed its U.S. IPO, raising $416 million in proceeds
• The offering represents one of the notable space technology IPOs as the sector attracts increased investor interest
• The company operates in the space analytics sector, providing data-driven intelligence services

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached record highs on May 6, driven by easing tensions in the US/Iran conflict and strong corporate earnings fueled by AI investment. The rally caps a multi-year surge, with the S&P 500 up nearly 7% year-to-date after gaining 18% in 2025, powered by fundamental business growth rather than pure speculation.

• Approximately 85% of companies reporting earnings recently beat expectations, with AMD surging 19% in one day after already climbing 300% over the past year
• Major tech companies are showing exceptional growth, with Meta reporting 33% revenue growth to $56.3 billion and cloud spending accelerating across hyperscalers
• Despite optimism, Brent crude remains above $100 per barrel (up from $60 at year-start), indicating ongoing geopolitical risk, though CNN's Fear & Greed Index shows measured sentiment rather than euphoria

Apollo Global Management is planning to open a 'second headquarters' in Florida or Texas with up to 1,000 employees, matching its current New York headcount. The move follows NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani's policies targeting wealthy residents and businesses, including a pied-a-terre tax on luxury second homes. Apollo joins other Wall Street firms like Citadel in expanding outside New York due to the city's political climate and tax policies.

• Apollo is scouting office space in Miami, Palm Beach, and Austin for a hub that could eventually house 1,000 employees out of its 6,000+ global workforce
• The decision comes after Mayor Mamdani's 'war on the wealthy,' including confronting Citadel CEO Ken Griffin outside his penthouse to promote higher taxes on the rich
• Florida and Texas offer no state income tax and pro-business policies, while New York faces a $5 billion budget deficit and proposals for increased corporate taxes

Wall Street surged on Wednesday, with the Dow jumping 612 points (1.24%) and the Nasdaq hitting a record high, driven by optimism over a potential US-Iran nuclear deal and strong AI-driven earnings from chipmakers. The rally was further supported by a sharp drop in oil prices, easing inflation concerns, while over 80% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings expectations.

• AMD hit an all-time high on strong data center chip demand, lifting the PHLX Semiconductor Index 4.5% and pushing its 2026 gains to 62%.
• Oil prices fell sharply—WTI down 6% to above $95 and Brent down 7% to just over $101—as reports emerged of progress toward a US-Iran agreement to end conflict and pause nuclear enrichment.
• The S&P 500 rose 1.46% to a record 7,365.09, with more than 80% of reporting companies beating estimates, positioning the index for its strongest profit growth in over four years.

Morgan Stanley cut its U.S. growth forecast by 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points, citing elevated gas prices that will more than offset the stimulus from higher tax refunds this year. WTI crude prices surged from a $59.55-$72.12 range in April 2025 to $99.89 by late April 2026, pushing annualized gasoline outlays to $503.7 billion in March.

• WTI crude hit $114.58 per barrel on April 7, 2026, with gasoline spending jumping to $503.7 billion annualized in March from $422.4 billion in February
• Real GDP grew just 2.0% in Q1 2026 with personal consumption contributing only 1.6%, the weakest reading in the recent cycle, while the savings rate fell to 4.0% from 5.2% a year earlier
• Energy PCE rose 14.43% year-over-year while core PCE increased only 3.2%, suggesting slower growth without sticky core inflation rather than stagflation

Crypto.com launched an in-app travel booking service on May 6, 2026, in partnership with travel infrastructure provider Bookit. The platform allows users to book travel and entertainment directly through the app while earning rewards in CRO, the native cryptocurrency of the Cronos ecosystem. This move aims to expand real-world utility for digital assets and integrate crypto rewards into everyday commerce.

• The service provides access to over 1 million global listings including hotels, flights, cruises, and car rentals, plus approximately 20 million tickets for live experiences
• The platform complements Crypto.com's 'Level Up' program, a tiered rewards structure designed to increase practical application of the CRO token in everyday transactions
• The launch reflects broader momentum in crypto payments infrastructure, coinciding with new U.S. legislation creating federal registration pathways for nonbank providers to access Federal Reserve payment systems

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee warned that even if artificial intelligence delivers transformative economic benefits, the Fed must remain vigilant about inflation risks. He cautioned that consumer spending based on anticipated future productivity gains from AI could cause economic overheating before those gains materialize.

• Goolsbee acknowledged AI's potential, stating it 'would be lovely, wonderful, it will make us rich' if it lives up to expectations
• The Fed official emphasized the need to be 'circumspect and on the lookout for overheating' as people may spend based on expected wealth gains
• The remarks highlight central bank concerns about managing inflation expectations while technology-driven productivity improvements remain uncertain

Prediction market traders are betting on when the SEC will finalize its proposed rule to end mandatory quarterly earnings reports for companies. Traders on Kalshi give 73% odds the change will happen by April 2027, though the timeline would be unusually fast given the SEC's typical rulemaking process takes at least a year after the 60-day public comment period.

• Odds on Kalshi for rule finalization by April 2027 jumped to 73% from 46% after the SEC's formal proposal on Tuesday, while January 2027 approval stands at 57% odds
• The SEC's typical rulemaking timeline is at least one year between proposal and final adoption, making traders' bullish timeline a significant bet against historical precedent
• The proposal faces a 60-day public comment period that only begins once posted to the Federal Register, which can take days to a month, especially for proposals over 100 pages

Portugal's largest listed lender Millennium bcp reported a first-quarter net profit increase of nearly 26% to 305.8 million euros, significantly exceeding analyst expectations of 208 million euros. The strong performance was driven by an improved net interest margin, higher return on equity rising to 15.9%, and lower provisions at its Polish subsidiary Bank Millennium.

• Net profit of 305.8 million euros beat the average analyst forecast by 47%, with domestic business contributing 265.4 million euros (up 21.2%) and Polish unit Bank Millennium rising 68% to 71 million euros due to lower Swiss franc mortgage charges
• Key operational metrics improved across the board: customer loans grew 7.2% to 63.4 billion euros, non-performing exposures declined 14% to 1.48 billion euros, and cost-to-income ratio fell to 36.0% from 37.4%
• Return on equity improved to 15.9% from 13.9% year-over-year, while net interest income rose 2.4% to 738.4 million euros and fees/commissions increased 8.2% to 218 million euros

White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett predicts 4% U.S. economic growth for the rest of the year, driven by an AI productivity boom, corporate tax incentives for manufacturing, and surging domestic investment. Major companies including Novartis and TSMC are making significant U.S. expansion investments, with tax policies encouraging a rush to build factories before incentives expire.

• Hassett attributes the growth surge to AI-driven productivity gains translating into corporate earnings growth and increased capital spending
• Tax incentives restoring full expensing and bonus depreciation for factory construction and equipment are creating a 'race unlike anything we've ever seen to create jobs in America'
• Major multinational corporations are pouring billions into U.S.-based semiconductor, AI, and advanced manufacturing projects, making the U.S. 'the hot place to be right now'

U.S. airlines spent 56.4% more on jet fuel in March 2026 compared to February, following U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran that effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. Airlines spent $5.06 billion on fuel in March, up from $3.23 billion in February, forcing carriers to lower or scrap 2026 guidance as fuel is their second-largest expense after labor.

• March fuel spending was $5.06 billion, a 56.4% increase from February's $3.23 billion and 30% higher than March 2025
• Jet fuel prices exceeded $4 per gallon in some markets by April as the conflict continued and the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed
• Airlines expect customers to absorb higher fuel costs by early 2027, while Spirit Airlines cited the fuel crisis as derailing its mid-year bankruptcy emergence plans

A New York Fed study reveals that surging gas prices in March 2026 disproportionately impacted lower-income households, who reduced consumption significantly while higher earners maintained spending levels. Households earning under $40,000 annually increased gas spending by only 12% while cutting consumption by 7%, compared to those earning over $125,000 who raised spending by 19% with just a 1% consumption cut. This highlights the widening 'K-shaped' economic recovery where inflation hurts those least able to afford it.

• Lower-income households (under $40,000/year) cut real gas consumption by 7% during the March 2026 price spike, likely through carpooling or public transit, while high earners (over $125,000) reduced consumption by only 1%
• Gas prices jumped nearly $1 per gallon to $3.81 in March following the Iran war and have since climbed to $4.30, with overall energy prices up 56% post-pandemic
• The disparity in response is larger than during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine energy shock, reflecting Fed Chair Powell's repeated warnings that persistent above-target inflation disproportionately harms those least able to afford higher prices