General Market News

Strong payroll data has increased the likelihood of a September Fed rate hike, but the economic context differs significantly from 2022. While inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, the gap is much smaller than during the previous hiking cycle, suggesting any additional tightening will be modest rather than aggressive.

• Core PCE inflation currently stands at 3.3% with the fed funds rate at 3.5-3.75%, compared to 5.6% inflation with near-zero rates in early 2022, giving the Fed less catching up to do
• A September rate hike is expected to have limited impact on long-term Treasury yields, with potential support for the long end of the curve as the Fed reinforces its inflation-fighting credibility
• The resilient labor market provides the Fed room to continue fighting inflation despite concerns about AI-driven productivity gains potentially weakening future hiring

The Dow Jones broke below key support levels after an August warning signal, declining from near 54,821 to around 52,450 by September 9, 2026. Elliott Wave analysis suggests this may be the start of a larger multi-month correction targeting the 43,047-47,437 support zone, similar in magnitude to the 2022 decline, rather than just a short-term pullback.

• The August signal—two consecutive sessions with open and close above the upper Bollinger Band, plus a shooting star pattern—has triggered a breakdown below the 50-day moving average and the May uptrend line
• Elliott Wave count indicates the index topped at the ideal third-wave target (54,744 vs. 54,821 actual) of an ending diagonal structure that began at the 2020 COVID low
• A sustained reclaim above the 53,300-750 zone would argue for only a contained shakeout, but failure to do so keeps the larger fourth-wave correction scenario toward 43,047-47,437 in play over coming months

U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia Jeanine Pirro announced sanctions against Xinbi Guarantee, a Chinese-linked online marketplace accused of facilitating cryptocurrency scams targeting Americans. The Treasury Department designated Xinbi as a transnational criminal organization, and authorities seized $52 million in cryptocurrency and shut down its Telegram channels. One victim reportedly lost $800,000 in these schemes.

• Xinbi operated primarily on Telegram, selling scam tools including fake investment websites and money laundering services to cybercriminals targeting Americans
• The U.S. government has restrained $938 million total linked to such cryptocurrency scam operations, with $52 million seized from Xinbi's network specifically
• Separately, U.S. authorities assisted Madagascar in raiding 13 scam centers allegedly run by Chinese crime groups, resulting in 500 arrests and 30 Chinese leaders repatriated to China

Clay, a New York-based AI software startup that automates sales and marketing tasks, raised $115 million in Series D funding at a $7.1 billion valuation, more than doubling its value from a year ago. The company develops AI agents that analyze business data to help sales teams make decisions and execute actions, serving clients including Google and Anthropic.

• The funding round was led by Wellington with participation from Sequoia, StepStone, Andreessen Horowitz, and Perennial
• Clay's valuation more than doubled to $7.1 billion from $3 billion in August 2024 when it raised $100 million led by CapitalG
• The company, founded in 2017, is expanding from B2B data aggregation to building AI agents that can autonomously help companies grow

The Treasury Department announced it will buy back $6 billion in longer-term government debt, triple the normal buyback level, in an effort to maintain bond market liquidity and potentially limit rising Treasury yields. The operation targets 10- and 20-year notes as yields have climbed to levels not seen since before the 2008 financial crisis. Markets reacted negatively, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.841%.

• The $6 billion buyback triples normal operations and exceeds Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's August 19 commitment to at least double buybacks of already-issued securities
• The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.841%, up nearly 4 basis points, reaching highs not seen since prior to the 2008 global financial crisis
• Despite the operation's stated goal of maintaining market liquidity, the market reaction was negative with yields continuing to climb rather than decline

ASE Technology (ASX) has surged 16% over three months, outperforming the semiconductor industry's 9.1% decline, driven by strong demand for its advanced packaging (LEAP) services amid AI growth. The company expects LEAP revenues to exceed $3.5 billion in 2026 and double by 2027, with ATM gross margins reaching above 30% in Q4. However, its EMS segment faces margin pressure from rising component costs, and the stock trades at a premium valuation of 22X forward P/E.

• LEAP revenues are tracking ahead of the $3.5 billion 2026 target, with management planning an additional $2 billion CapEx investment and targeting a doubling of LEAP revenues in 2027
• ATM gross margin improved to 27.3% in Q2 2026 from 21.9% year-over-year, with expectations to exceed 30% in Q4 2026 as higher-margin LEAP volumes grow
• EMS segment gross margin declined to 8.9% in Q2 2026 due to higher component costs and unfavorable product mix, with operating margin falling to 2.4% from 3.0% sequentially
• The stock trades at a forward P/E of 22.00X, above industry peers GlobalFoundries (18.78X), United Microelectronics (18.21X), and Synaptics (17.66X), warranting a cautious Hold rating

Private equity firm Silver Lake is merging two French software companies, Cegid and Silae, in a deal valued at over €10 billion ($11.6 billion). The merger aims to create a comprehensive business management platform with enhanced AI capabilities as the software sector faces disruption from artificial intelligence development.

• The combined entity will bring together payroll, accounting, e-invoicing, and digital finance services, creating a 1,400-person developer team focused on AI investment
• Expected annual revenue of the merged company will be €1.6 billion ($1.9 billion), targeting SMBs and professional advisors in Europe
• The deal comes as software stocks have experienced volatility in 2026 due to 'SaaSpocalypse' fears, though the sector saw its best month since 2001 in May

US stocks fell on Wednesday as oil prices surged above $100 per barrel, raising inflation concerns and increasing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike. The Dow dropped 288 points, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also declining, as markets now see a 62.4% probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase at the Fed's next meeting.

• Brent crude rose more than 2% to break above $100 per barrel for the first time since July, driven by escalating US-Iran tensions threatening Middle East energy supply disruptions
• The 10-year Treasury yield briefly moved above 4.8% as higher oil prices pushed up inflation expectations, weighing particularly on tech stocks with Intel down 0.95% and Nvidia down 0.28%
• Critical inflation data is due this week with Producer Price Index on Thursday and Consumer Price Index on Friday, which will be the final major inflation report before the Fed's September meeting

The Cooper Companies is scheduled to report fiscal Q3 2026 earnings on September 9, with the Zacks consensus estimate projecting sales of $1.1 billion (up 3.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.11. The company has beaten earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters with an average surprise of 5.8%, though Zacks' model does not predict a beat this quarter given its Rank #4 (Sell) rating.

• CooperVision is expected to drive growth through MyDay premium lenses, Biofinity toric/multifocal products, and myopia control offerings like MiSight (which grew 24% in the prior quarter)
• CooperSurgical's fertility business is projected to return to mid-single-digit growth in the second half, supported by improving IVF market conditions and demand for genomics and consumables
• Asia Pacific remains a significant headwind due to consumer weakness in Japan and China, legacy product rationalization, and rising e-commerce activity where the company has lower exposure

U.S. major stock indices declined in pre-market trading on September 9, 2026, pressured by rising Treasury yields with 10-year yields at 4.8%. The Dow Jones fell 0.37%, breaking below its 50-day EMA and emerging as the weakest index, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 dropped 0.20% and 0.17% respectively ahead of key economic data releases.

• The Dow Jones broke below its 50-day EMA at 52,787, trading around 52,440 and showing the most weakness among the three major indices
• The S&P 500 is testing critical support at the 7,600 level (50-day EMA), struggling to overcome resistance at 7,700
• Markets are consolidating ahead of Thursday's PPI data, Friday's CPI report, and an anticipated interest rate hike, with rising 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields creating headwinds

The U.S. Treasury Department is set to announce Wednesday the size of its bond buyback program targeting long-dated debt, with analysts expecting at least $5-6 billion, significantly above the previously indicated $4 billion minimum. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned currency traders not to bet against him, as he pursues aggressive measures to control Treasury yields and support market functioning amid rising U.S. debt exceeding $40 trillion.

• The buyback will focus on 10- and 20-year notes and could range from $5-6 billion or higher, double or more the normal operation size, with actual purchases beginning Thursday
• Bessent is simultaneously intervening to support the Japanese yen to prevent Japan (the largest foreign Treasury holder at $1.1 trillion) from selling U.S. debt, which would push yields higher
• Some analysts warn Bessent's aggressive approach represents a departure from Treasury's traditionally predictable behavior and may damage the credibility of Treasuries as an asset class

US stock futures fell sharply on Wednesday, with Dow futures down over 300 points, as Brent crude oil briefly crossed $100 per barrel for the first time since July due to escalating US-Iran tensions. The oil shock has pushed Treasury yields higher and revived inflation concerns ahead of key CPI data and the Fed's rate decision next week.

• Brent crude breached $100/barrel while WTI climbed above $94 following attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure, though markets have not panicked despite inflation concerns
• Apple is unveiling its first foldable iPhone and iPhone 18 lineup today, with investors focused on pricing strategy as Morgan Stanley expects broad price increases and the foldable may exceed $2,000
• Treasury Department will announce expanded bond buyback program details at 11am ET, expected to at least double from current $2 billion cap, which could ease the 10-year yield currently near 4.8%

U.S. stock markets are showing signs of fragility ahead of the November midterm elections, with volatility measures near 2026 lows despite multiple potential risk factors. Analysts warn that markets appear ill-prepared for shocks, even as the VIX remains around 15—below its long-term median of 17.6—and investors show little concern about election-related uncertainty.

• The S&P 500 has historically dropped 5% or more during September-October in 15 of the 24 midterm election years since 1930, yet VIX futures show no premium pricing for election risk
• UBS's 'Turbu-lens' machine-learning framework reached its highest level of potential market stress in late August, signaling 'extreme fragility' despite market calm
• A Democratic takeover of the House or Senate could add policy uncertainty, though some analysts argue strong corporate earnings will continue supporting stocks regardless of election outcomes

Demand for adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) reached 8.5% of all mortgage applications last week, the highest since June, as borrowers seek relief from rising fixed mortgage rates. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 6.85%, the highest since June 2025, driven by investor concerns over inflation and federal budget deficits. Total mortgage application volume fell 2.7% as higher rates dampened borrowing activity.

• The average 5-year ARM rate dropped to 5.82% from 5.94%, offering over one percentage point savings compared to the 30-year fixed rate of 6.85%
• Refinance applications fell 6% for the week and are down 25% year-over-year, reaching the slowest pace since May 2025
• Purchase applications remained essentially flat despite increased housing inventory in many markets, as higher rates continue to weigh on prospective homebuyers

Oil prices surged above $100 per barrel for the first time since July amid escalating Iran conflict, while the U.S. imposed import bans on Canadian goods including alcohol, motorcycles, and dairy in an intensifying trade war. Rising geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns are pushing up long-term borrowing rates ahead of expected central bank rate hikes by the ECB, BOJ, and possibly the Fed.

• Brent crude approached triple-digit territory and natural gas hit three-year highs after Iran launched missile attacks in response to U.S. destruction of its oil tankers, with traffic through the Strait of Hormuz disrupted again
• U.S. escalated trade tensions with Canada by banning imports of certain alcoholic beverages, motorcycles, and dairy products, following Trump's announcement that Bombardier must manufacture in the U.S. to sell planes there
• Japan's yen strengthened 4% for the month to seven-month highs ahead of an expected BOJ rate hike, while China's August inflation showed upticks in consumer and producer prices driven mainly by higher energy costs

The U.S. announced import bans on Canadian motorcycles, dairy products, and alcoholic beverages starting September 29, escalating a trade dispute between the two nations. This follows Canada's implementation of retaliatory tariffs on CA$27.6 billion worth of U.S. goods targeting over 700 products. The conflict centers on accusations of discriminatory trade practices, with both sides claiming to protect domestic workers despite warnings about economic harm to businesses.

• U.S. import bans will replace 50% tariffs on Canadian whey, molasses, beer, wines, spirits, and motorcycles effective September 29, 2026
• Canada implemented 'dollar for dollar' retaliatory tariffs on CA$27.6 billion of U.S. imports including furniture, appliances, beauty products, and agricultural equipment
• U.S. spirits exports to Canada fell over 70% year-on-year following Canadian retail bans, with the $715.5 billion bilateral trade relationship facing significant disruption despite tariffs currently affecting a relatively small portion of total trade

Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Chairman Takeshi Hashimoto warned that sharp yen volatility risks creating confusion in global financial markets, despite the weak yen benefiting his company's dollar-denominated revenues. He stated that a stable range of 150-155 yen per dollar would be comfortable, with the currency recently trading around 153. The shipping executive also noted it is 'almost impossible' to resume normal services through the Strait of Hormuz currently.

• Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, the world's largest tanker owner and operator, earns most revenue in U.S. dollars and benefits from yen weakness, but prefers stability in the 150-155 range
• The yen has experienced sharp swings in recent months, hitting multi-decade lows in 2026 before strengthening temporarily
• Commodity ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to an average of 10 ships per day over the past 10 days, the lowest since May, with recovery unlikely in the near term

The EU's General Court upheld the European Commission's 2023 decision blocking Booking Holdings' €1.63 billion ($1.9 billion) acquisition of ETraveli. Regulators determined the deal would have strengthened Booking's dominant position in online travel agencies and created an uncompetitive travel ecosystem.

• The acquisition would have combined Booking's hotel dominance with ETraveli, Europe's leading online flight booking operator
• The Commission found the deal would leave rivals unable to compete in the online travel market
• Europe's second-highest court rejected all of the U.S. company's arguments in the case T-1139/23

British company Goodwin announced it is in advanced talks to sell a substantial portion of its Mechanical Engineering division, which manufactures components for UK and U.S. naval programs, to U.S. private equity firm Cerberus Capital for £1.1 billion ($1.49 billion). The transaction would transfer key defence manufacturing assets including steel castings and submarine component operations to American ownership.

• The sale encompasses Goodwin Steel Castings, Goodwin International, Noreva, Easat Group, and Pumps - all part of the Mechanical Engineering division
• The assets being sold manufacture critical components for UK and U.S. naval ship and submarine programmes
• The £1.1 billion deal value represents a significant divestiture for the British engineering firm to U.S.-based Cerberus Capital

Adani Enterprises' shares rose nearly 5% after its airport unit secured a $1 billion fundraising deal from global investors including Alpha Wave Global, Premji Invest, Temasek, and BlackRock. The deal values Adani Airport Holdings at approximately $18 billion pre-money and will fund airport expansion and non-aeronautical business development across India.

• The $1 billion investment values Adani Airport Holdings at $18 billion on a pre-money basis, following a 150 billion rupee qualified institutional placement in July
• Proceeds will support airport infrastructure expansion, Adani Airport City projects, and non-aeronautical businesses, with planned capacity expansion to serve 200 million passengers annually
• Adani Airport Holdings currently manages eight airports across India, accounting for more than 23% of the country's passenger traffic