Used vehicle pricing expected to increase 2% in 2026, a historically stable rate

• The 2% increase represents a return to historical norms, matching the average annual increase since 1998, excluding the pandemic outlier years of 2021 (46.6% increase) and 2022 (14.2% increase)
• Used vehicle prices have stabilized after declining 15% in 2022 and 7% in 2023, with only 0.4% increases in both 2024 and 2025
• Total used vehicle sales are expected to rise to 38.3 million units in 2026, while retail sales are forecast to decline 0.7% to 20.3 million units; falling auto loan rates and increased tax refunds may boost demand

Summary: Used Vehicle Pricing Forecast for 2026

Key Findings:

Cox Automotive projects used vehicle wholesale prices will increase 2% in 2026 compared to December 2025, marking a return to historically stable pricing patterns. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index shows the average year-end increase has been approximately 2% since 1998, excluding pandemic-related outlier years.

Historical Context:

• 2024-2025: 0.4% increases each year
• 2023: 7% decline
• 2022: 15% decline
• 2021: 46.6% surge (pandemic peak)
• 2020: 14.2% increase

Despite recent stabilization, used vehicle prices remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels. While wholesale prices have declined significantly from pandemic highs, retail consumer prices have not fallen proportionally.

Market Dynamics:

Monthly price fluctuations typically average 0.2% due to seasonal factors. Cox forecasts total used vehicle sales will reach 38.3 million units in 2026, including 20.3 million retail sales (down 0.7% year-over-year).

Positive Indicators:

Jeremy Robb, Cox Automotive's interim chief economist, cited improving conditions including:

• Auto loan rates at 12-month lows for new and used vehicles
• Anticipated tax refund increases boosting consumer purchasing power
• Expected stronger demand as 2026 progresses

Investment Implications:

The return to stable 2% growth signals normalization in the used vehicle market after pandemic-era volatility. This stability benefits consumers and suggests predictable inventory values for dealerships and automotive retailers. Lower financing costs and improved consumer liquidity may support transaction volumes despite modest price increases.