3 of the Most Important Charts to Watch Right Now

• WTI crude oil is at multi-year lows, underpinning cooler inflation but signaling a technical bottom with high probability of a rebound that could reach double-digit percentage gains if demand catalysts emerge
• The 10-year Treasury yield suggests consumer-level interest rates may rise rather than fall in 2026, as labor markets remain healthy and the Fed sees limited reason for aggressive rate cuts despite cooling inflation
• The S&P 500 is expected to reach 7,500-8,000 by mid-year (15%+ upside) driven by sustained earnings growth and capital returns, with the index well-positioned to rally regardless of interest rate direction

Market Analysis Summary: Three Critical Charts for 2026

Key Market Indicators

The article analyzes three crucial market metrics entering 2026: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, the 10-Year Treasury yield, and the S&P 500 index.

Oil Markets

WTI crude is trading near multi-year lows in early January 2026, creating a supply-demand paradox. While oversupply is expected to cap prices, global GDP growth forecasted at 3.0%-3.5% and middle-class expansion (representing 30-40% of global GDP) should drive energy demand. Technical analysis suggests oil has formed a bottom with high rebound probability, though uncertainty remains. Rising oil prices could sustain or increase inflation through higher input costs across the economy.

Interest Rate Outlook

The 10-Year Treasury yield indicates limited downside for rates despite earlier expectations for significant cuts. Initial jobless claims show a healthy, improving labor market, reducing urgency for aggressive Fed rate cuts. CME FedWatch data suggests only slight rate decreases expected in 2026, with greater risk of consumer rates rising than falling as economic momentum builds.

Equity Markets

The S&P 500 appears well-positioned for continued gains, with analysts targeting 7,500 (average estimate) to above 8,000 (high-end), representing over 15% upside. Earnings growth is the primary driver, with sustained growth expected through multiple quarters and rising estimates. The index may reach targets by mid-year and could rally "indefinitely" regardless of interest rate direction, as both scenarios support economic activity.

Market Implications

While oil prices and interest rates face uncertainty and may create volatility, the underlying trend for equities remains bullish, supported by robust corporate earnings and capital returns.