Nasdaq 100 Elliott Wave Update: An Unexpected Detour, but Still on Track

• The index dropped to 24,954, reaching the 76.4% retracement level of the December-January rally, invalidating the immediate 3rd wave scenario but maintaining critical support levels
• Technical pattern has shifted to a larger ending diagonal formation (3-3-3-3-3), with the 3rd wave typically targeting the 27,090-27,380 zone based on 123.6-138.2% extension ratios
• Key warning levels for bulls are set at 25,602, 25,400, 25,086, 24,647, and 23,854, with serious concern if price falls below this week's low of 24,954

Nasdaq 100 Elliott Wave Analysis: Market Adjusts Course Toward 27,000 Target

Key Technical Developments

The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) experienced an unexpected pullback that forced analysts to revise their Elliott Wave count, though the broader bullish outlook remains intact. The index peaked at 25,873 on January 13, 2026, before dropping to 24,954 on Tuesday—hitting the 76.4% retracement level of the December-January rally.

Revised Wave Structure

The immediate "3rd of a 3rd wave" scenario was invalidated by Tuesday's decline. The analysis now suggests the index is forming a larger ending diagonal (ED) pattern, a 3-3-3-3-3 structure. The November-January rally comprised three distinct waves (a-b-c), with the first wave measuring 0.618x the prior November-December rally—a typical ratio in Elliott Wave analysis.

Price Targets and Critical Levels

Upside Target: The 3rd wave could ideally reach approximately 27,000 (specifically the 27,090-27,380 zone, with subdivisions targeting 27,140-27,430).

Critical Support Levels: Bulls must defend 24,647 (December low) and especially 23,854 (November low). Additional warning levels include 25,602, 25,400, 25,086, 24,647, and 23,854.

Confirmation: A break above the January 13 high of 25,873 would confirm the bullish wave structure targeting around 26,900.

Market Implications

Despite the detour, the technical structure remains constructive as long as key support levels hold. The ending diagonal pattern suggests continued upside potential, though with a more complex rally structure than initially anticipated. Traders should monitor the critical support zones for signs of invalidation.