General Market News

European stock markets are expected to open lower on Thursday due to uncertainty surrounding Middle East peace negotiations. Conflicting statements from Washington and Tehran regarding talks have created market volatility, with the U.S. claiming negotiations are occurring while Iran denies direct interaction. The situation is compounded by Iran's rejection of a U.S. ceasefire offer and its counter-proposal seeking control over the Strait of Hormuz.

• U.K. index projected to open 0.2% lower, Germany down 0.6%, France down 0.4%, and Italy down 0.7% according to IG data
• Iranian Foreign Minister confirmed message exchanges through mediators but denied direct negotiations with the U.S., while Iran rejected U.S. ceasefire terms
• G7 foreign ministers meeting in France on Thursday and Friday will address the Iran and Ukraine conflicts, with delegations from Saudi Arabia, Brazil, India, South Korea and Ukraine attending

Markets are pricing in a potential ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran despite contradictory diplomatic signals, with Iran publicly rejecting negotiations while indirect talks reportedly continue through intermediaries. Separately, the private credit sector is showing early signs of stress, with Apollo limiting withdrawals and rising default rates triggering investor concerns about hidden risks in this fast-growing shadow lending market.

• Analyst Luke Lango predicts a formal ceasefire framework within 10-14 days and oil returning to $75 within 30 days, based on both sides finding a 'face-saving' diplomatic off-ramp involving Iranian nuclear concessions and partial asset releases.
• Apollo restricted redemptions to under half of withdrawal requests in its flagship private credit fund, while Moody's downgraded a major KKR-linked fund to junk status with a 5.5% non-accrual rate on soured loans.
• The U.S. has called up 3,000 Army paratroopers for potential Middle East deployment, creating risk of renewed escalation that could spike oil prices and reverse recent market relief rallies.

RiverFront Investment Group has revised its Iran conflict scenario probabilities three weeks into the crisis, reducing the likelihood of a 'Quick Deal' from 10% to 5% while raising 'Wider War' probability to 30%. Oil prices remain above $100/barrel with a 54% spike resembling historic oil shocks, though the firm believes the resilient US economy can weather the energy price increase if it lasts six weeks or less.

• The S&P 500 has pulled back 7% and is testing support near 6,490 in a 'decision box' range of 6,500-7,000, with shorter-horizon portfolios reducing equity exposure by roughly 7%
• The Fed kept rates unchanged with futures pricing in no cuts for 2026, a significant shift from pre-conflict expectations, while Powell signals he will serve until a government investigation concludes
• RiverFront maintains recession risk below 30% given US GDP above 2%, unemployment below 5%, and strong earnings, but would reassess if oil stays elevated for 2+ months or if 'gamechanger' events like Arab state attacks on Iran occur

President Donald Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14-15, the White House announced. Xi will also make a reciprocal visit to Washington, D.C. later this year at a date yet to be determined. The long-awaited summit represents a significant diplomatic engagement between the world's two largest economies.

• The Trump-Xi meeting is scheduled for May 14-15 in Beijing
• First lady will accompany Trump, and Xi will make a reciprocal visit to Washington, D.C. at an unannounced date later in the year
• The announcement characterizes this as a 'long-awaited' meeting between the two world leaders

Citrini Research, the firm that previously issued a bearish AI call, is now warning that persistently high oil prices driven by Middle East conflict could trigger an economic slowdown and drag down equity markets. Founder James van Geelen argues that elevated energy prices act as a tax on growth, eroding consumer purchasing power even without further Fed action. The firm contends that stocks remain vulnerable even if geopolitical tensions ease, as consumers would emerge weakened from absorbing higher fuel costs.

• Van Geelen warns that 'if the war doesn't end, equities will go lower,' citing sustained oil strength from geopolitical tensions as a key risk to markets
• Citrini argues current interest rates near neutral levels would become restrictive enough to cause a slowdown if oil prices remain high, without the Fed needing to raise rates further
• The firm previously gained attention in February by warning the AI boom could push unemployment as high as 10% through white-collar job displacement

Oil prices declined amid ongoing geopolitical tensions related to Iran, while U.S. import and export prices surged beyond expectations in February. Import prices rose 1.3% (double forecasts), the highest in nearly four years, and export prices jumped 1.5% versus 0.6% expected, reflecting inflationary pressures before recent Middle East conflicts.

• Import prices climbed 1.3% in February, double analyst forecasts and the highest level since early 2021; export prices rose 1.5%, significantly beating the 0.6% estimate
• Mortgage applications fell 10.5% week-over-week as average 30-year rates reached 6.43%, the highest year-to-date, with bond yields remaining elevated at 4.34% on 10-year treasuries
• Pre-market trading showed broad gains with major indexes up 0.65-0.82%, though volatility remained high as geopolitical headlines continued to drive market swings

Markets have declined 6-10% across major indices since Middle East hostilities began three weeks ago, as initial resilience fades. The S&P 500 has fallen 6%, while Canadian, European, and emerging markets have dropped 8-10%. The article examines whether current weakness presents a buying opportunity, noting several technical indicators are approaching oversold territory.

• Near-term catalysts for sharper declines include destruction of energy infrastructure, American casualties, or ground troop deployment; some energy infrastructure damage has already occurred
• Valuations have improved with S&P 500 falling below 20x P/E for the first time since tariff-induced weakness, Europe below 15x, and emerging markets at 12x
• Several correction indicators are flashing potential buy signals: S&P 500 RSI at 32 (oversold), investor sentiment at 30% bullish vs 52% bearish (over 20-point spread), and only 28% of S&P 500 stocks trading above 50-day moving averages

The article highlights a concerning divergence between the Dow reaching new highs and the Retail Sector ETF (XRT) breaking down, suggesting underlying consumer weakness that could threaten broader market sustainability. The consumer-driven U.S. economy relies on retail spending as an early-warning system, and XRT's failure to hold above key levels raises recession risk concerns. Markets may rally without consumer participation, but rarely sustain those gains without retail sector confirmation.

• XRT made a new low below its November 21st level, showing continued consumer weakness while the Dow pushed toward new highs
• For the retail sector to stabilize, XRT must reclaim approximately $80 and show follow-through buying; a sustained break below November 2025 lows would invalidate any bullish case
• The divergence indicates narrowing market participation and underlying fragility, as consumer behavior often shifts before economic headlines reflect the change

U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren has challenged Federal Reserve official Randall Guynn over potential conflicts of interest stemming from his 40-year career as a Wall Street bank attorney at Davis Polk. Guynn was recently appointed to a powerful Fed position overseeing the banking industry, reporting to Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman. The role involves setting rules for and examining the nation's largest financial institutions.

• Guynn spent 40 years at Davis Polk representing the biggest U.S. banks before joining the Fed's supervision and regulation division
• The position gives Guynn oversight authority over the same banking sector he previously served as legal counsel
• Warren sent a letter demanding explanations on how Guynn will handle potential conflicts, though the Fed confirmed receipt but declined further comment

Trading volume in S&P 500 and oil futures spiked approximately 15 minutes before President Trump posted about U.S.-Iran talks and halted strikes on Monday. Former SEC Chair Jay Clayton, now U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, said regulators would scrutinize the suspicious trading activity that preceded the market-moving announcement.

• Volume surged around 6:50 a.m. ET on Monday, roughly 15 minutes before Trump's social media post that lifted equity markets and pushed oil prices lower
• Regulators will 'go back and track every single thing, everyone' to reconstruct the activity and identify participants, though surveillance is easier in cash equities than in futures and commodities markets
• Clayton stated 'the law is not as clear as it should be' regarding such trading and suggested Congress should act to clarify regulations across all markets

Senators Adam Schiff (D-N.Y.) and John Curtis (R-Utah) are continuing their push to ban sports prediction market contracts despite new self-imposed insider-trading restrictions announced by Kalshi and Polymarket. The bipartisan lawmakers have introduced legislation that would transfer control of sports betting and casino-style prediction contracts from federal regulators to state authorities, arguing that voluntary company policies are insufficient to prevent abuse.

• The 'Prediction Markets are Gambling Act' would prohibit CFTC-registered entities from listing sports betting and casino-style prediction contracts, giving states control instead of federal regulators
• Schiff cited concerns about 'vast amounts of insider trading' that current regulations cannot address, pointing to reports of bettors predicting Iran war events with extremely high accuracy, possibly using untraceable blockchain transactions
• A Federal Reserve study released Wednesday found that sports betting 'can have dramatic implications for household financial stability,' adding to growing bipartisan criticism of widespread prediction markets

US stock futures rose on Wednesday, led by the Nasdaq up 1.2%, as oil prices fell 4.5% to $88.20 per barrel following reports of US diplomatic efforts with Iran proposing a 15-point resolution and potential one-month ceasefire. This reverses Tuesday's losses when the Nasdaq fell 0.8% amid geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns.

• The US sent Tehran a 15-point proposal for resolving the Middle East conflict, with reports suggesting a push for a one-month ceasefire to enable negotiations
• Global markets rallied on the news, with Japan's Nikkei up 2.87%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng up 1.09%, and European indices rising 1.2%-1.75%
• The VIX volatility index remains elevated at 25.85 (down 4.1%), signaling continued market anxiety despite the improved sentiment, with analysts warning the situation remains fluid as Iran dismissed US overtures as 'not credible'

Global markets rallied on March 25, 2026, as Iran signaled it would allow non-combatant ships through the Strait of Hormuz and reports emerged of a 15-point ceasefire plan, though Iran denied negotiations are underway. Brent crude fell to $98/barrel while Asian and European stocks gained 1-3%, though March business surveys showed the conflict has significantly damaged economic confidence. President Trump's economic approval rating hit a new low of 29%, the lowest of either of his terms.

• Oil prices eased with Brent crude dropping to $98/barrel and U.S. crude around $88, while major Asian stock indices rose 1.5-3% on ceasefire hopes
• March business surveys revealed stalling eurozone growth and rising U.S. inflation fears, indicating the war's significant impact on economic confidence despite market optimism
• Private credit sector stress continued as Ares joined Apollo in gating funds amid investor redemption waves, while Trump's economic approval rating fell to 29%

Pop Mart's stock is plummeting despite reporting blockbuster 2025 annual results, with revenue reaching 37.12 billion yuan ($5.38 billion), up 184.7% year-over-year. Investor concerns center on the company's heavy reliance on its Labubu franchise, which accounted for 38% of total revenue, and doubts about the sustainability of growth beyond this single intellectual property.

• The Monsters (Labubu) IP generated 14.16 billion yuan (~$1.45 billion), a 365.7% year-over-year surge, but its dominance raises questions about franchise diversification and cycle risk
• Pop Mart is attempting to diversify beyond blind box toys into home appliances (launching next month) and standalone dessert stores (first half of year), plus a Sony Pictures movie collaboration for Labubu
• Analyst Billy Leung notes the earnings 'did little to close the gap' between bulls focused on IP monetization and bears questioning long-term durability

Global stock markets rose and oil prices initially fell following reports of a 15-point peace plan sent by Donald Trump to Iran and announcements that 'non-hostile' ships could pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The positive sentiment reversed later as negotiations showed mixed signals, with oil returning to approximately $100 per barrel amid ongoing Middle East tensions that have disrupted 20% of global oil supplies through the critical waterway.

• Asian markets gained significantly with Japan's Nikkei up 2.9% and India's Sensex up nearly 2%, while European markets rose 1-1.6% on initial peace hopes
• Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has created what the International Energy Agency calls the largest ever oil supply disruption, affecting 20% of global oil and gas shipments and one-third of world fertilizer supplies
• BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warned that prolonged conflict could push oil to $150 per barrel and trigger a global recession, while gold fell 13% to $4,460, questioning its traditional safe-haven status

Wall Street economists have significantly raised U.S. recession probabilities, with estimates ranging from 30% to nearly 50% over the next 12 months, well above the normal 20% baseline. The elevated risk stems from an ongoing Iran war driving oil prices up 35% in a month, a weakening labor market that added only 116,000 jobs in all of 2025, and growing concerns about stagflation-like conditions combining slowing growth with persistent inflation.

• Moody's Analytics estimates recession odds at 48.6%, Goldman Sachs at 30%, and Wilmington Trust at 45%, with economists warning that prolonged conflict or sustained high oil prices through Q2 could push the economy into contraction.
• The labor market shows concerning weakness with just 116,000 jobs created in all of 2025 and over 500,000 job losses outside health care, which alone added 700,000 positions.
• Consumer spending faces dual pressures from falling stock markets (down 5% during the war) that reduce wealth effects and gasoline prices up $1.02 per gallon, threatening the consumer-driven economy that accounts for two-thirds of growth.

The Federal Reserve has expressed concern about inflation driven by Trump administration policies, particularly tariffs and rising oil prices from Middle East supply disruptions. Fed Chair Jerome Powell cited these factors as boosting inflation while economic growth has slowed to 1.4%, creating a policy dilemma. The Fed faces challenges addressing tariff-driven inflation through traditional interest rate tools without further damaging employment and economic growth.

• U.S. GDP growth slowed to 1.4% in February, well below expectations, limiting the Fed's ability to raise rates to combat inflation without risking jobs and further economic weakness
• Growth stocks with high valuations, minimal profits, and consumer discretionary stocks face the highest risk in a potential stagflation environment
• Energy stocks like Chevron, utilities, consumer staples like Walmart, and healthcare stocks like AbbVie are recommended as safer investments due to stable demand, pricing power, and dividend income

Global stocks rallied and oil prices dropped sharply on reports the U.S. sent a 15-point settlement proposal to Iran seeking a month-long ceasefire in their conflict. S&P 500 futures rose 0.9%, European futures gained 1.2%, and Brent crude fell 6% to $98.30 per barrel as markets reacted to potential de-escalation in the Middle East.

• Asian equity markets in Australia, South Korea, and Japan rose roughly 2% while gold gained 1.6% on ceasefire optimism, though Tehran denied direct talks have occurred
• Brent crude remains up 35% since the war began and near $100 per barrel, causing challenges for Asian buyers paying premium prices for jet fuel and diesel
• Markets remain fragile with cautious positioning as U.S. and Israeli strikes continue on the ground and Washington prepares to send thousands more troops from the 82nd Airborne Division to the region

SpaceX is reportedly planning to file for an IPO as soon as this week, potentially raising $75 billion or more and targeting a June listing, according to The Information. Following its recent merger with Elon Musk's xAI, the combined company is valued at $1.25 trillion, though SpaceX may seek a valuation as high as $1.75 trillion. The anticipated IPO could be one of the largest public offerings on record.

• SpaceX recently merged with Musk's xAI, which was valued at $250 billion, bringing the combined company valuation to $1.25 trillion
• The IPO could raise $75 billion or more, making it one of the largest public offerings in history
• Existing investors like Alphabet (6%-7.5% stake) and Echostar (3% stake) saw their shares rise on the news, with Echostar indicated up 8% overnight

US equities declined on Tuesday as the S&P 500 fell 0.37%, the Dow dropped 0.18%, and the Nasdaq slid 0.84%, pressured by surging oil prices and escalating Iran conflict tensions entering its fourth week. Rising Treasury yields and weak economic data reinforced concerns about a prolonged higher interest rate environment, offsetting mixed diplomatic signals from the White House.

• Brent crude surged 4.55% to $104.49 per barrel and WTI gained 4.79% to $92.35, lifting the energy sector 2% while weighing on broader market sentiment amid geopolitical uncertainty.
• US business activity fell to an 11-month low in March as higher energy costs pressured input prices, while weak Treasury auction results pushed yields higher and added pressure on equities.
• Private credit concerns emerged as Ares Management and Apollo Global Management limited fund redemptions, and crypto-related stocks fell sharply after lawmakers planned restrictions on stablecoin rewards in the Clarity Act.