General Market News

Former National Economic Council director Gary Cohn warns that markets are hanging on 'every word' as the US-Iran conflict enters its fourth week, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz driving significant market volatility. Gas prices have surged over $1 per gallon to $3.95 nationally, up from $2.94 before the strikes, as 20% of global crude oil passes through the blocked waterway.

• The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to U.S. ships, blocking approximately 20% of the world's crude oil and natural gas supply
• National average gasoline prices jumped to $3.95 per gallon, a $1+ increase from the pre-conflict price of $2.94
• Cohn emphasized that oil prices are the biggest determinant of short-term and long-term economic outcomes, with volatility creating both opportunities and risks for investors

US stock markets rallied sharply on Monday, with the Dow Jones gaining 631 points (1.39%) and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both rising over 1%, driven by a 10% plunge in oil prices after President Trump announced a five-day delay on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure. The rebound reversed last week's declines, though uncertainty persists as Iranian officials denied Trump's claims of productive negotiations.

• Oil prices (Brent crude and WTI) dropped more than 10% following Trump's announcement, easing inflation concerns and boosting equities across all 11 S&P 500 sectors
• Cyclical stocks led gains, with airlines and cruise operators benefiting from lower fuel costs, while bank stocks posted their biggest gain since before the conflict began
• Federal Reserve rate hike expectations eased significantly, with probability of an increase by December falling to around 12% according to CME FedWatch data

Donald Trump postponed planned US military strikes on Iranian power plants for five days, citing 'productive conversations' with Iran about resolving Middle East hostilities. The announcement triggered wild market swings, with European stocks recovering from earlier losses and oil prices falling 10% to $101 per barrel. The move came after Trump's 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about a fifth of global oil and LNG supplies.

• Brent crude oil fell 10% to $101/barrel and UK gas prices dropped 6% following the announcement, while European stock indices rose 0.8-1.2% after opening lower
• The Strait of Hormuz closure has created an energy crisis that the IEA chief says equals the 1970s oil shocks combined with Ukraine war fallout; Goldman Sachs raised 2026 Brent forecast to $85/barrel from $77
• UK PM Keir Starmer scheduled emergency Cobra meeting with Bank of England governor to address economic impact and potential energy bill support as price caps expire in June

Markets are experiencing high volatility due to the Iran war and political developments, with the S&P 500 swinging daily on news headlines. The Motley Fool advises long-term investors to resist reactive trading, noting that the S&P 500 has historically recovered to new highs after every geopolitical crisis. Investors are encouraged to maintain their positions and consider building cash reserves to deploy during deeper sell-offs.

• The S&P 500 has historically recovered to all-time highs following major crises including World War II, 9/11, the financial crisis, and the pandemic, making the Iran conflict appear as 'a bump in the road rather than a brick wall'
• Major indices showed recent gains with S&P 500 up 1.6%, Dow Jones up 1.9%, and Nasdaq up 1.8%, while volatility remains elevated in March 2026
• Recommended investment approach includes holding quality stocks through volatility, building cash reserves for opportunities, and considering low-cost S&P 500 ETFs like Vanguard S&P 500 ETF or State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF

Traditional diversification strategies are failing as stocks, bonds, and precious metals all decline simultaneously. The S&P 500 has fallen below its 200-day moving average for the first time since March 2025, while typically defensive assets like bonds, gold, and consumer staples are also experiencing downward pressure, leaving investors with few safe havens.

• The S&P 500 is on a four-week losing streak and has broken below its 200-day moving average, potentially signaling a major regime shift from the bullish trend
• Aggregate bonds are testing their 40-week moving average, continuing a four-year trend of failing to provide traditional portfolio diversification benefits
• Precious metals (gold and silver) and defensive equity sectors like Consumer Staples are also declining, prompting the observation that 'cash is a position' in the current environment

DoubleLine's Deputy CIO Jeffrey Sherman warned that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates soon without significant labor market deterioration, challenging market expectations of an imminent pivot. He outlined structural risks in private credit markets and identified oil prices as the key driver across asset classes. Sherman recommended low-duration fixed income and five-to-seven-year Treasuries while cautioning against AI-related bond investments.

• Sherman cited the 'TACO trade' belief that the Fed will 'chicken out' and cut rates, but emphasized the Fed needs genuine labor market weakness first, which has not materialized despite recent tepid jobs reports.
• He identified a specific threshold of 5.002% for the 10-year Treasury, requiring oil prices to reach approximately $120 (2022 cycle highs) and remain elevated for a sustained period.
• Sherman warned of liquidity mismatches in private credit interval funds and BDCs, where redemptions force managers to sell the best assets first, leaving remaining investors with the riskiest, most illiquid credits.

Airline and travel stocks rallied on Monday after President Trump postponed strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure for five days, offering potential relief from surging fuel prices. Jet fuel costs had nearly doubled since late February due to Middle East tensions, prompting major carriers to warn about capacity cuts. The development comes as airports face major delays due to TSA staffing shortages from a partial DHS funding lapse.

• Major airlines jumped 3%-7%, with Delta, United, and American gaining 4%-5% as jet fuel prices had spiked from $2.42 per gallon on Feb. 26 to $4.56 on March 20
• Delta, American, United and JetBlue had warned of capacity reductions amid higher fuel costs, with United planning a 5% cut across less-profitable routes
• Airports experiencing multi-hour delays during spring break as TSA employees work without pay for over a month; Trump ordered ICE officers to assist at 14 major airports starting Monday

President Trump announced a five-day pause on U.S. military strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, causing oil prices to tumble over 9% and the S&P 500 to rebound 1.8% despite Iran denying any negotiations and Israel continuing attacks. The move signals potential de-escalation in a conflict that had pushed Brent crude to $113 and the 10-year Treasury yield to a seven-month high of 4.45%.

• U.S. crude oil futures fell more than 9% to $89/barrel while Brent crude dropped 10% to just over $100, though futures remain elevated above $80 through August amid ongoing uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20% of global oil consumption
• The 10-year Treasury yield pulled back to 4.36% from Friday's 4.39% close, still up over 40 basis points since before the conflict began, driven by inflation concerns, potential war spending deficits, and higher European borrowing rates
• Markets price only 8% odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the April 29 meeting, while the S&P 500 hit resistance at its 200-day moving average after falling to six-month lows last week with a 1.9% decline

President Trump announced a five-day postponement of military strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, causing oil prices to drop over 8% and Treasury yields to decline from seven-month highs. Markets rallied with the S&P 500 surging 1.5% despite Iran denying negotiations and Israel continuing attacks, as investors interpreted the move as avoiding broader conflict.

• U.S. crude oil futures fell more than 8% to $90/barrel and Brent crude dropped 9% to $102, retreating from peaks near $100 and $113 respectively before the announcement
• The 10-year Treasury yield pulled back to 4.35% from Friday's 4.39% close and overnight highs of 4.45%, though markets still price in 8% odds of a Fed rate hike on April 29
• The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical uncertainty, with about 20% of global oil consumption previously flowing through the waterway before the conflict, and no clear resolution path after the five-day window

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee stated he is more concerned about inflation than unemployment amid ongoing Middle East conflict with Iran. His comments came as President announced progress in negotiations with Iran and a five-day halt to attacks on energy infrastructure. Goolsbee warned against repeating the Fed's 2021 'team-transitory mistake' of underestimating inflation severity.

• Goolsbee dissented on a December rate cut and supported holding rates steady in January and March FOMC meetings; he is not a voting member this year but will vote in 2027
• Following war news, traders increased bets on a rate hike by end of 2026 but still expect a cut in 2027, while stocks and bonds plunged in volatile trading
• Goolsbee remains 'fairly optimistic' that rates could decline by end of 2026 but emphasized needing proof that inflation is returning to the 2% target before supporting cuts

US stocks rallied on Monday, with the Dow Jones climbing 653 points (1.4%) after President Trump announced a five-day pause on military strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure, citing 'productive conversations' aimed at de-escalating Middle East tensions. The move sparked a risk-on shift across markets, though Iran disputed Trump's claims of communication and uncertainty persists.

• Oil prices tumbled sharply with WTI crude falling over 7% to around $91/barrel and Brent declining 6% to $99/barrel, lifting fuel-sensitive airline stocks (American and United Airlines up 4%+ each) while energy stocks like Exxon and Chevron dropped over 1%
• Major indexes had previously logged four consecutive weeks of losses, with the Dow and Nasdaq down nearly 9.8% from record highs (approaching correction territory) and the S&P 500 down about 7% amid geopolitical tensions
• Market volatility eased with the CBOE Volatility Index pulling back from two-week highs, while investors trimmed expectations for further Fed rate hikes, though analysts warn rally durability depends on confirmed de-escalation

US stock futures surged nearly 1,000 points and oil prices dropped below $100 per barrel after President Trump announced a five-day pause on planned strikes against Iranian power plants, citing productive talks with Tehran. The rally marks a sharp reversal for markets that were on the brink of correction territory as the Iran conflict enters its fourth week.

• Dow futures jumped 980 points (2.1%) while Brent crude fell to $97.70 from over $111 last week, though national gas prices remained elevated at $3.96/gallon due to lag effects
• Major indices were approaching correction territory before the announcement, with the Dow and Nasdaq down nearly 10% from record highs and the Russell 2000 already in correction
• The International Energy Agency reported at least 40 critical Middle East energy assets have been severely damaged since the conflict began February 28, raising concerns about prolonged elevated prices even after the war ends

US stock futures rose sharply after President Trump announced a five-day postponement of military strikes against Iran and claimed productive peace talks were underway, though Iran flatly denied any contact occurred. The announcement triggered volatile moves across markets, with oil prices plunging from over $101 to under $90 per barrel and Treasury yields falling from 4.42% to 4.358%. Analysts expressed skepticism about the durability of any deal, noting markets are trading narrative rather than certainty in an extremely headline-driven environment.

• Dow futures gained 1.6%, S&P 500 futures up 1.5%, and Nasdaq futures up 1.45% after Trump's announcement, reversing earlier losses
• WTI crude oil collapsed from over $101 to under $90 per barrel following the news, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell from 4.42% (highest since July) to 4.358%
• Iran's Fars news agency denied any direct or indirect contact with the US, saying Trump 'backed down' after threats to target power plants in 'West Asia', though reports suggest diplomatic backchannels via Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan remain active

US stock futures surged on Monday, with Dow futures jumping 1,100 points (2.6%), after President Trump announced a five-day pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, citing 'productive' talks with Tehran. The announcement eased Middle East conflict fears that had been driving volatility across global markets. However, Treasury yields climbed as investors repriced Federal Reserve rate cut expectations amid persistent inflation concerns.

• Brent crude oil plunged over 7% below $100 per barrel as geopolitical tensions eased, with Goldman Sachs revising its 2026 average forecast to $85 (up from $77 previously)
• Gold tumbled 7.8% to $4,126.36 and silver fell sharply as investors rotated out of safe-haven assets, following a nearly 10% decline the previous week
• Treasury yields rose to 4.435% (highest since July 2025) as markets reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts, while Asian markets suffered steep losses with Japan's Nikkei falling nearly 5% and South Korea's Kospi dropping over 6%

Global markets sold off sharply as President Trump's 48-hour deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz expires Monday, with threats to 'obliterate' Iran's power plants escalating Middle East conflict. Oil surged past $100/barrel while stocks plunged across Asia and Europe, with traditional safe havens like bonds and gold failing to provide refuge. Central banks are now pricing in rate hikes instead of cuts due to inflation fears from the energy shock.

• Brent crude spiked with WTI hitting $100/barrel and U.S. gas prices topping $4/gallon; Japan's Nikkei fell 3.5% (down 12% in March) and South Korea's KOSPI dropped 6%
• Bond markets collapsed globally with 10-year Treasury yields at highest since last data point; Fed futures now price 75% chance of rate hike by year-end instead of cuts, with ECB and BOE also expected to raise rates three times
• Gold fell to its lowest 2026 level after suffering its biggest weekly drop since 1983 (over 10%), failing as both war hedge and inflation buffer as investors flee to cash

Hedge funds increased short positions against U.S. stocks for the fifth consecutive week, marking the largest net selling since April 2025, according to a Goldman Sachs note. Simultaneously, funds shifted to long positions in European equities amid concerns about tariffs, oil prices, and inflation. The selling was broad-based across sectors, with only consumer staples and energy seeing net buying.

• Global stock selling reached new highs last week, with index-tracking products and single stocks both net sold, led by consumer discretionary, tech, and financial sectors
• Hedge funds abandoned long positions and added shorts in emerging markets Asia while maintaining long bets only in consumer staples and energy stocks
• Stock pickers lost 3.85% in March but remain up 0.16% year-to-date, while systematic traders gained over 6% for the year on short bets

European stocks are expected to open sharply lower, with major indices down 1-1.5%, following Asian market declines amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump threatened to 'obliterate' Iran's power plants within 48 hours, prompting Iranian threats to target Gulf energy infrastructure and facilities that 'finance the U.S. military budget.'

• U.K.'s index projected to open 1% lower, while Germany's DAX, France's CAC, and Italy's FTSE MIB are expected down 1.4-1.5%
• Trump issued a 48-hour deadline Saturday threatening Iranian power plants, with Iran responding by escalating threats against Gulf energy infrastructure and desalination facilities
• Market sentiment weakened after major U.S. benchmarks posted their fourth consecutive weekly loss amid ongoing concerns over the vital Strait of Hormuz maritime passage blockage

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum met with energy executives in Houston on March 22 to discuss raising domestic oil output and Venezuela opportunities amid severe market disruption. The meeting occurred as oil prices surged above $100 per barrel due to Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, which handles roughly 20% of global oil and gas flows.

• Oil prices have reached multi-year highs above $100/barrel with U.S. gasoline nearing $4/gallon and diesel exceeding $5/gallon, creating political pressure ahead of November mid-term elections
• Iran has shut down the Strait of Hormuz and attacks have caused long-term infrastructure damage that will take years to restore even if the strait reopens
• The dinner meeting expanded beyond traditional oil executives to include coal and power leaders, reflecting increased focus on power generation amid exploding data center demand

Corporate executives and oil traders have set a roughly two-week deadline for resolving the Strait of Hormuz closure before oil prices spike sharply beyond current levels above $100 per barrel. President Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran over the weekend while intensifying military operations, but the C-suite warns that without resolution by early April, the world faces a major energy crisis extending into mid-year. The closure has shut down global supply chains and raised fears of oil shortages particularly in Asia.

• Oil expert John Kilduff warns that if the Strait remains closed past April 1, WTI crude will rise 'well above $100' with countries like India, Japan, and South Korea facing shortages requiring industrial production cuts by mid-year.
• The closure represents a 10-12 million barrel per day deficit that policy measures cannot offset, with strategic petroleum reserves and pipeline alternatives unable to handle the scale of supply disruption.
• Even if resolved quickly, a permanent risk premium is expected in oil prices due to damaged Mideast facilities, with QatarEnergy estimating 3-5 years to repair 17% of its LNG export capacity destroyed in Iranian attacks.

Historical data suggests U.S. stocks may be nearing a rebound despite recent volatility from the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict. The S&P 500 has dropped roughly 5% since the conflict began, but analysis of 30+ geopolitical shocks since 1939 shows markets typically bottom around 12-15 trading days into a crisis before recovering over the next 40 days.

• The S&P 500 fell 1.51% on Friday to 6,506.48, marking a six-month low and fourth consecutive weekly decline, with a 5.4% total drop since the conflict started February 28
• Historical patterns show stocks typically reach their lowest point around day 12-15 of geopolitical crises, then recover over approximately 40 trading days as uncertainty fades
• Energy price surges from attacks on Iran's South Pars gas field, Qatari facilities, and Strait of Hormuz disruptions are driving the sell-off, though prolonged conflict could trigger further losses