General Market News

Oil prices rose to one-week highs on Tuesday as prospects for a U.S.-Iran peace deal weakened following President Trump's demand for compensation from Iran. WTI crude approached $82 and Brent exceeded $90.50, both gaining over 5% on Monday. Supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, where exports dropped from 4.4 million bpd to 3 million bpd week-over-week, are supporting prices alongside delayed refinery restarts.

• Exports through the Strait of Hormuz fell sharply to 3 million barrels per day for the week ending August 7, down from 4.4 million bpd the previous week
• Technical analysis suggests WTI could target $92-$100 levels, with immediate resistance at $87, while Brent faces key resistance at $92 before potentially moving toward $100
• Saudi Aramco postponed the restart of its 400,000 bpd Jazan refinery, adding to supply tightness, though any progress on peace negotiations could quickly reverse price gains

JPMorgan Chase will maintain its aggressive hiring pace in Asia Pacific through 2027 after its corporate banking revenue in the region grew by well above 20% this year. The bank is completing a 15% staff increase in 2026 following a 20% expansion in 2025, driven by Asian companies expanding abroad and surging investment in AI, data centers, and supply chains.

• Corporate banking revenue grew 'well above 20%' year-to-date across Asia Pacific, with Taiwan, South Korea, China, and Australia exceeding those growth rates
• Malaysia and Singapore are key beneficiaries, with strong demand for data center and GPU financing tied to AI infrastructure investment
• JPMorgan is increasing capital allocation to trade finance and working capital finance as intra-Asia trade expands

Australian shipbuilder Austal Ltd announced it received a $1.05-1.20 billion offer from Hanwha Defence USA, a unit of South Korea's Hanwha Group, to acquire its U.S. operations. The deal comes as Austal's U.S. business faces significant financial challenges, with expected operating losses of A$175 million for the fiscal year ending June 30.

• Hanwha Defence USA has offered an indicative enterprise value of $1.05 billion to $1.20 billion for Austal's U.S. entities and operations
• Austal granted Hanwha Group a four-week period to conduct due diligence on the potential acquisition
• Austal's U.S. operations are projected to post an operating loss of A$175 million in FY2024, driven by higher expected losses on multiple shipbuilding programs

President Donald Trump confirmed he spoke with Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh 'one time, briefly, a few days ago,' denying an earlier report that the two had spoken repeatedly since Warsh became chairman in May 2025. The controversy highlights ongoing concerns about Fed independence as Trump continues to break with presidential precedent by publicly weighing in on interest rate policy.

• Trump contradicted a news report claiming regular contact with Warsh, stating they spoke only once recently, though timing relative to Trump's effort to oust a Fed Board member remains unclear
• Warsh has stated he welcomes input from the president or others on rates but will make independent decisions; Trump acknowledged 'if it was up to him, it would be different, but he's got a board'
• Direct president-Fed chair meetings have been rare in recent years; Trump had only one scheduled meeting with former Chair Jerome Powell since returning to the presidency in 2025, reflecting historical norms designed to preserve Fed independence

Wall Street closed slightly lower on Monday as uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz reopening pushed oil prices 5% higher and Intel announced a $15 billion stock offering. The Dow fell 0.11%, the S&P 500 dipped 0.06%, and the Nasdaq declined 0.32% as investors awaited key inflation data due later this week.

• WTI crude jumped 5% to $82.16 per barrel and Brent rose 5% to $87.74 amid continued Strait of Hormuz disruption, as Iran maintains conditions must be met before reopening the critical shipping route
• Intel shares led chip stocks lower after announcing a $15 billion common stock offering, raising dilution concerns among investors despite plans to fund AI infrastructure expansion
• Probability of a September Fed rate hike dropped to 52% from 67% following last week's disappointing jobs report showing 23,000 job losses, while 85% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings expectations this season

The Trump administration extended its Jones Act waiver for another 90 days through mid-November but narrowed its scope to apply only to vessels hauling specific energy resources. The waiver aims to maintain fuel supplies amid disruptions from the U.S.-Israel war with Iran, which has reduced Strait of Hormuz traffic to a trickle and depleted U.S. petroleum reserves to multi-decade lows. The extension comes ahead of midterm elections as inflation concerns persist.

• Since the initial March 17 waiver, 210 voyages carrying nearly 55 million barrels of cargo (primarily gasoline and crude oil) have been completed that would have been unlawful under the 1920 Jones Act
• The narrowed waiver now requires Pentagon consultation with the U.S. Maritime Administration for each individual shipping voyage, addressing concerns from the domestic maritime industry
• U.S. petroleum reserves have fallen to their lowest levels in decades while oil prices resume climbing as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely limited

Oil prices surged approximately 6% after U.S.-Iran negotiations collapsed over the weekend, with Iran demanding reparations as a precondition for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump rejected Iran's demands and vowed to seek compensation from Iran instead, while maintaining economic pressure through an effective naval blockade that has halted Iranian oil exports.

• WTI oil rallied toward resistance at $81.50-$82.00, with potential to reach $86.00-$86.50 if it breaks above $82.00
• Iran's demand for reparations and lifting of the naval blockade was rejected by Trump, who stated compensations were never discussed during negotiations
• The impasse suggests the Strait of Hormuz could remain blocked for weeks as both sides engage in a 'waiting game', expecting the other to concede first

Citadel Securities identifies five converging catalysts creating a compelling upside setup for precious metals, marking the firm's first call for structural exposure to gold in 2026. Head of Equity Strategy Scott Rubner highlights dovish Fed repricing, accelerating central bank purchases, net-short positioning, bullish options dynamics, and potential retail resurgence as key drivers for both gold and silver.

• CTA analysis shows both gold and silver were net short as of August 6, creating fuel for a potential covering rally as trend-following funds are positioned on the wrong side of the trade
• China's gold purchases have been accelerating monthly since December 2024, contributing to strengthening global official-sector demand alongside broader central bank buying
• Retail participation represents the 'largest unrecognized upside,' particularly in silver, as precious metals have been overlooked amid the AI trade dominance, with January-February rally demonstrating retail's potential impact

President Trump approved a 90-day extension of the Jones Act waiver with added limitations. The waiver allows foreign-flagged ships to transport cargo between U.S. ports, exempting them from the Jones Act's requirements that ships be U.S.-built, owned, and crewed. The extension aims to reduce gas prices by increasing shipping flexibility and easing transport bottlenecks.

• The Jones Act normally requires all cargo between U.S. ports to be carried on American-built ships owned by U.S. companies with American crews
• The waiver extension is for 90 days but includes narrowed scope with unspecified limitations compared to the previous waiver
• The policy change targets lower gas prices by reducing transportation bottlenecks and increasing shipping capacity flexibility

U.S. stock markets showed minimal movement on Monday, with the S&P 500 holding near Friday's record high while the Dow and Nasdaq slipped slightly. Oil prices surged over 5% to $86 per barrel after stalled negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz reopened geopolitical concerns. The muted trading comes as second-quarter earnings season nears completion with analysts expecting roughly 50% profit growth, the strongest since 2021.

• Brent crude oil swung from $113 in spring to near $80 last week and back to $86 today following stalled Iran negotiations and a Houthi attack on a Red Sea port
• Tech stocks showed mixed results: Microsoft (+2.1%) and Amazon (+2%) led gains while Nvidia and Apple each fell 2%, together shedding nearly $192 billion in market value
• Wednesday's CPI report is the next key catalyst, with forecasters expecting 3.4% headline inflation versus 3.5% in June

Prediction markets on Kalshi suggest July's Consumer Price Index will come in below Wall Street economist forecasts ahead of Wednesday's crucial inflation report. Kalshi traders see less than 55% odds that headline CPI exceeds 3.3% year-over-year, while the Dow Jones consensus estimate is 3.4%. The data will be key for Federal Reserve policymakers as they consider interest rate decisions at their September meeting.

• Kalshi traders give only 15% odds that July CPI comes in above 3.4%, suggesting expectations for inflation at or below 3.3% compared to June's 3.5% reading
• For core inflation (excluding food and energy), prediction markets show 47% probability of exceeding 2.4% and just 11% chance of topping 2.5%, below the 2.5% Dow Jones consensus
• June CPI posted the largest monthly decline in over six years at -0.4%, driven by a temporary drop in energy prices and beating economist expectations

Goldman Sachs' co-head of global banking and markets, Ashok Varadhan, advises investors to remain in the market despite recent concerns about interest rates, oil prices, and economic durability. He cites three positive factors: expectations that the Federal Reserve will not raise rates this year, the potential for AI to drive productivity gains and disinflation, and anticipated oil price declines to below $70 per barrel by late 2026.

• Varadhan does not expect Fed rate hikes in 2026, contrary to market pricing that had reflected some tightening risk, with trader bets on a September hike falling to around 50% following recent data
• AI is expected to become a disinflationary force as productivity benefits materialize once infrastructure buildout is complete, offsetting near-term inflationary pressures from resource strain
• Oil prices are projected to fall well below $70 per barrel by late 2026, though crude climbed back above $80 on Monday amid uncertainty over U.S.-Iran negotiations regarding Strait of Hormuz shipping

Global commodities traders and financial firms including Trafigura, StoneX, and Macquarie are expanding into Brazil's electricity trading market, capitalizing on rising price volatility and growth opportunities. The expansion comes as several small and mid-sized Brazilian power traders face financial difficulties, creating openings for well-capitalized international players to gain market share.

• StoneX has established its first global electricity trading desk in Brazil, offering risk-management services to energy companies while awaiting clarity before launching full trading operations
• Macquarie and Trafigura are pushing into the market, with Trafigura citing Brazil's hydroelectric-heavy generation mix as complementary to its U.S. and European energy portfolios
• The sector is undergoing consolidation following insolvencies among local traders, with regulators evaluating stronger market security measures including collateral requirements and exchange-traded electricity markets

The U.S. Senate delayed a vote on major crypto legislation (the Clarity Act) until September, significantly reducing its chances of passage before year-end. The bill faces opposition over weak anti-money laundering rules and ethics provisions, and lawmakers have limited time before November elections dominate their agenda. A September 15 procedural vote will test whether supporters can reach the required 60-vote threshold.

• Senate returns September 14 with only 14 session days before October recess and 22 days total before year-end, leaving minimal time to resolve disputes over ethics rules and state enforcement powers
• Key sticking points include provisions that would ban government officials (including Trump, who reported crypto income) from operating crypto businesses, with Democrats demanding stronger state attorney general enforcement authority
• Banking industry opposes provisions allowing crypto exchanges to pay rewards on stablecoin holdings, arguing it would cause deposit flight from community banks

U.S. markets face a critical week with July CPI data due Wednesday, followed by PPI Thursday and retail sales Friday. The inflation readings are crucial as the Fed weighs policy moves after July's weak jobs report showed payrolls falling by 23,000. Economists expect headline CPI to ease to 3.4% annually and core inflation to moderate to 2.5%, but both remain above the Fed's 2% target.

• July payrolls declined by 23,000 with sharp downward revisions to prior months, though unemployment dipped to 4.1%, presenting a mixed signal for Fed policy decisions
• Deutsche Bank forecasts July headline CPI to rise 0.15% month-over-month aided by lower gasoline prices, while core CPI is expected to increase 0.26%
• Major earnings reports include Applied Materials Thursday, with focus on semiconductor equipment demand and AI-related spending, plus 13F filings revealing institutional portfolio positioning

U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs experienced over $850 million in inflows last week, the highest level since April, following a crypto hack that drained $130 million from Coldcard hardware wallets manufactured by Coinkite. Analysts suggest investors may be shifting to regulated ETFs for greater security after the breach exposed vulnerabilities in cold wallet firmware, though ETFs are not entirely risk-free.

• The Coldcard hack involved a firmware flaw that allowed attackers to predict security information and steal crypto without physically accessing the offline hardware wallets, previously considered one of the safest storage methods
• Bitcoin ETFs drew more than $850 million in inflows last week, representing the strongest demand since April as investors seek regulated alternatives to self-custody
• Experts note that while ETFs offer regulatory oversight and law enforcement protections, they still carry custodian breach risks and cannot guarantee against all losses

Wall Street opened cautiously on Monday with the Dow falling 79 points as investors weighed uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz reopening and awaited key inflation data. Iran indicated progress on Hormuz negotiations but maintained conditions for the U.S., keeping oil prices elevated with WTI at $79 and Brent near $84. Markets are focused on upcoming consumer and producer price reports that could shape Federal Reserve policy expectations.

• Fed rate hike probability for September dropped to 44% from 67% a week earlier, helping support equities despite inflation concerns and geopolitical uncertainty.
• Strong earnings season continues with 85.1% of S&P 500 companies beating Q2 expectations, prompting J.P. Morgan to raise its year-end S&P 500 target to 8,000 from 7,800.
• Oil prices rose approximately 1% on Hormuz supply concerns, with negotiations ongoing but uncertain, while notable stock movers included Intel down 3.6% on a $15 billion stock offering and Apple falling 2% on a Jefferies downgrade.

Sionna Therapeutics is discontinuing development of its experimental drug SION-719 for cystic fibrosis after it failed to demonstrate meaningful benefit in a mid-stage clinical trial. The drug was being tested as an add-on therapy to Vertex Pharmaceuticals' Trikafta in 15 adults with the genetic disorder, but did not significantly reduce sweat chloride levels, a key efficacy measure.

• SION-719 failed to significantly lower chloride levels in patients' sweat during the 14-day study, missing its primary endpoint for cystic fibrosis treatment effectiveness
• The company cited variations in patient test results and differences in Trikafta levels as potential factors that may have influenced the trial outcome
• Sionna is separately developing a two-drug combination (SION-451 with SION-2222) for cystic fibrosis, with an early-stage study meeting safety goals, though the company is reviewing next steps for that program

The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 reached new highs last week following weak jobs data that reduced rate hike expectations. This week's key catalyst is Wednesday's CPI report, expected to show headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core inflation falling to 2.5%, which could further boost stocks if confirmed. Additional market drivers include ongoing corporate earnings and potential US-Iran negotiations over reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

• July CPI expected to show headline inflation at 3.4% (down from 3.5%) and core inflation at 2.5% (down from 2.6%), with lower-than-expected readings likely bullish for equities as Fed rate hike odds diminish
• Corporate earnings season shows blended growth of 50%, driven primarily by technology companies, with key reports due from Applied Materials, Cisco, and Ross Stores
• US-Iran crisis at gridlock as Iran demands sanctions relief and military withdrawal to reopen Strait of Hormuz; a deal would be bullish for stocks and impact oil markets

The UK's medicines regulator has approved Eli Lilly's obesity pill Foundayo for weight management and type 2 diabetes treatment, making the UK the first European country to authorize the medication. This approval expands treatment options for obesity and diabetes patients in Britain and represents a significant regulatory milestone for Lilly in the European market.

• The UK becomes the first country in Europe to approve Foundayo, giving it a first-mover advantage in adopting this obesity treatment
• The pill is authorized for dual indications: weight management and type 2 diabetes treatment
• The approval strengthens Eli Lilly's position in the growing obesity drug market in Europe