General Market News

First-quarter earnings season begins with S&P 500 profits expected to grow 12.6% overall, led by the technology sector with 45% growth. Five S&P 500 companies stand out with notable earnings expectations despite volatility from the Iran conflict affecting energy and shipping costs. Analysts highlight strong growth prospects in semiconductors, steel, and optical technology stocks.

• Technology sector leads with 45% profit growth, driven by semiconductors and chip equipment (95% increase); Lumentum Holdings expected to grow EPS 297.3% to $2.26 and Teradyne by 173.7% to $2.08
• Steel companies Nucor (expected $2.82 EPS) and Steel Dynamics ($2.83 EPS) are insulated from Iran conflict impacts due to tariffs and federally supported construction demand
• Energy sector faces minimal -0.1% earnings decline but high volatility as Iran conflict disrupts tanker access through Strait of Hormuz; Valero Energy expected to earn $3.20 per share

UK stocks rebounded on Tuesday, with the FTSE 100 rising 0.1% and the FTSE 250 climbing 1.13%, driven by optimism over potential US-Iran diplomatic talks despite an ongoing US blockade of Iranian ports. Oil prices fell below $100 a barrel, benefiting travel and leisure stocks while pressuring energy companies.

• Banks and mining stocks led gains, with precious metal miners up 2.6% tracking higher gold and silver prices, while industrial metal miners added 1.5% as copper hit a one-month high
• Travel and leisure stocks rose 1.8% on lower oil prices, with EasyJet up 2.5% and Wizz Air surging 7.5%, while energy stocks like Shell and BP fell more than 0.5%
• Imperial Brands plummeted over 7% to a nine-month low after cutting its full-year forecast due to Middle East conflicts, while Intertek surged 11.8% on potential business split plans

Kevin Warsh, President Trump's nominee to lead the Federal Reserve, filed financial disclosures revealing assets exceeding $100 million, including two investments of over $50 million each in the Juggernaut Fund LP and $10.2 million in consulting fees from Stanley Druckenmiller's investment office. Warsh has pledged to divest certain holdings, including those with undisclosed underlying assets protected by confidentiality agreements, if confirmed by the Senate.

• Warsh holds two investments each worth over $50 million in the Juggernaut Fund LP, with underlying assets not disclosed due to pre-existing confidentiality agreements
• He received $10.2 million in consulting fees from Wall Street investor Stanley Druckenmiller's investment office
• Warsh committed to divesting undisclosed holdings, including assets in THSDFS LLC worth up to $5 million each, to comply with ethics requirements if confirmed

US stock futures rose on Tuesday, with Dow futures up 100 points and Nasdaq futures gaining 0.34%, as investors balanced tentative US-Iran de-escalation signs against persistent inflation concerns. The market awaits key bank earnings from JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup, plus March producer price index data due at 8:30 a.m. ET. Oil prices retreated despite a US maritime blockade targeting Iran-linked traffic.

• Nearly two dozen S&P 500 companies report this week, with major bank earnings expected to reveal credit quality trends and management outlook for second-half 2026
• March PPI data comes days after consumer prices showed the biggest increase in almost four years, reinforcing fears that any Fed rate cuts would stem from growth concerns rather than inflation victory
• United Airlines stock rose 1.5% and American Airlines jumped 4.3% on merger speculation after United's CEO reportedly pitched a potential combination to US officials in late February

The S&P 500 fully recovered its war-driven losses from U.S.-Iran tensions in a strong Monday rally, with futures edging higher Tuesday as bank earnings season begins. Tech stocks led gains while rising oil prices near $100/barrel failed to pressure equities, signaling market confidence that geopolitical conflict will remain contained. JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo earnings reports are now in focus to confirm whether the rally can continue.

• The S&P 500 futures are testing a major trendline at 6,936.50, with critical support at the 50-day (6,807.25) and 200-day (6,798.02) moving averages that must hold for upside momentum to continue
• Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund rose roughly 2% leading the broad rally, while Goldman Sachs declined despite beating profit expectations due to weaker trading revenue
• WTI crude oil approaching $100/barrel has not triggered equity selloffs, indicating investors believe economic disruption from Middle East tensions will be limited

Australian corporations are issuing profit warnings as the Middle East war drives up fuel prices and economic uncertainty. Qantas Airways reported jet fuel costs up to 32% higher than forecast, while Westpac Banking prepared for increased bad debts amid rising inflation and interest rates. The developments raise concerns about stagflation, with business confidence plunging to levels last seen during the COVID-19 pandemic.

• Qantas forecasts jet fuel costs up to A$800 million ($567 million) or 32% higher for H2 FY2025 as oil prices have more than doubled, prompting flight cuts and fare increases
• Westpac increased loan loss provisions to the highest level since the pandemic, warning that customers face pressure from higher inflation and interest rates due to energy market disruption
• National Australia Bank's business confidence index crashed 29 points to -29 in March, while consumer sentiment dropped 12.5% in April to the lowest in over two years

European markets are expected to open higher on Tuesday as investors react positively to potential resumption of U.S.-Iran peace talks, despite a U.S. military blockade of Iranian ports taking effect Monday. Oil prices fell overnight on optimism that diplomatic efforts may continue, with President Trump indicating Iran wants to negotiate.

• Germany's DAX is projected to rise 0.6%, France's CAC up 0.2%, and Italy's FTSE MIB up 0.45% at market open
• U.S. military blockade of Iranian ports began Monday, threatening to further restrict global oil supply
• President Trump stated the U.S. has 'been called by the other side' and Iran would 'like to make a deal very badly', with blockade goals including forcing Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz and return to negotiations

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated the Federal Reserve should 'wait and see' before cutting interest rates amid the ongoing war in Iran. He expressed confidence the U.S. economy remains strong and that recent price increases won't become embedded in inflation expectations, despite oil prices surging over 30% and gasoline exceeding $4 per gallon.

• The war in Iran has driven crude oil prices up more than 30%, pushing U.S. gasoline prices above $4 per gallon for the first time in over three years
• U.S. consumer prices have risen due to record surges in gasoline and diesel costs, negatively impacting President Trump's approval ratings over economic concerns
• Bessent suggested the conflict could bring '50 years of stability' and noted European and Asian countries are subsidizing demand while the U.S. has not

Australian business confidence plummeted 29 points to -29 in March, the second largest monthly fall on record, driven by concerns over the Iran war and resulting oil shock. Consumer sentiment also dropped to its lowest level in over two years in April. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates for a second time to 4.1% in March, while estimating headline inflation could reach 5% in Q2 due to higher fuel costs.

• Business confidence fell 29 points to -29, while profits declined to +1 from +4 as purchase costs surged 3% quarterly in March
• Companies are struggling to pass costs to consumers, with retail price growth slowing to 0.5% quarterly from 0.9%
• The RBA raised rates to 4.1%, reversing two of three previous cuts, and projects inflation near 5% in Q2 due to Middle East conflict fuel costs

Five S&P 500 stocks led Monday's trading session, including Sandisk (up 11.8% to a record high) and several 2026 year-to-date losers staging rebounds. Oracle, Fair Isaac, Cadence Design Systems, and KKR all gained between 7.6% and 12.7%, though most remain significantly down for the year. Sandisk is the S&P 500's top performer in 2026, while Oracle, FICO, and KKR rank among the index's biggest losers year-to-date.

• Sandisk surged 11.8% to a record 952.50 on news it will join the Nasdaq 100 on April 20, extending its 2026 gain to the top of the S&P 500 after rallying from a March 30 low of 558.58.
• Oracle jumped 12.7% above its 50-day moving average for the first time in 2026, benefiting from AI sentiment and a software sector rebound, though the stock remains down 20.2% year-to-date.
• Fair Isaac plunged 14% on Friday to its lowest level since late 2023 before rebounding 8.5% Monday, while KKR gained 7.6% back above its 50-day line after private credit concerns drove a 23% decline in 2026.

The Dow Jones rebounded over 300 points on Monday after President Trump signaled Iran may be open to negotiations, reversing earlier losses of 400+ points triggered by failed weekend peace talks and a U.S. blockade of Iranian-linked ships. The recovery was led by technology stocks as oil prices eased below $100, with the S&P 500 gaining 1% and the Nasdaq rising 1.2%.

• Technology stocks, particularly software companies like Microsoft and Oracle, led the rally as investors rotated into risk-on positions, while defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples underperformed
• Oil prices retreated below $100 per barrel after earlier surges, easing concerns about fuel costs that had pressured airline stocks including Delta and American Airlines
• Goldman Sachs noted that Iran-related volatility has dampened IPO activity, while U.S. existing home sales fell to a nine-month low in March amid tight inventory and labor market pressures

Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh has submitted required financial disclosures to the Senate, moving closer to a confirmation hearing that could occur next week at the earliest. The process was delayed due to paperwork issues related to Warsh's marriage to Jane Lauder, whose net worth is estimated at $1.9 billion. His confirmation path remains uncertain as Senator Tillis has vowed to block final approval until a criminal probe into current Fed Chair Powell is resolved.

• Warsh must still submit answers to Senate Banking Committee questions before a hearing can be formally scheduled for next week at earliest
• Senator Tillis (R-NC) has committed to blocking Warsh's final Senate confirmation until the federal criminal investigation into current Fed Chair Powell concludes
• Powell's term as Fed chair expires May 15, and the Trump administration expects to have Warsh confirmed by that deadline

Confluence Investment Management predicts that the US-Israeli war against Iran, which began February 28, will prompt companies globally to rebuild inventories as a hedge against supply disruptions and price shocks. This shift away from just-in-time inventory practices could significantly impact corporate profitability, manufacturing location decisions, and stock valuations, particularly in the manufacturing sector.

• US private sector inventory ratios declined steeply from the early 1980s but surged during periods of inflation and commodity price shocks (1960s-1970s energy crises, mid-2000s commodity surge)
• Manufacturing firms are expected to be most affected, with factory-level inventory holdings likely to rise sharply as they buffer against input cost volatility and supply chain disruptions
• Higher inventory levels will increase capital costs and reduce economic efficiency, likely resulting in elevated and more volatile inflation and interest rates compared to the globalization era, while potentially driving manufacturing relocation to the US due to its secure energy supplies

Markets reversed initial losses and closed higher on April 13, 2026, despite President Trump announcing a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after failed U.S.-Iran negotiations. The positive turn suggests investors believe the worst-case scenario of a prolonged conflict leading to a global energy crisis is now off the table, with the S&P 500 up 0.6%, Dow up 0.2%, and Nasdaq up 0.8%.

• Software stocks led the rally with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF surging over 5%, possibly sparked by a Goldman Sachs post suggesting tech stocks were oversold
• Oil price gains faded during the session despite the blockade announcement, indicating reduced concern about sustained energy supply disruptions
• Markets are beginning to decouple from Iran conflict news as investors shift focus to other opportunities, though the Strait of Hormuz bottleneck remains a key concern

Headline CPI rose sharply in March 2026 due to an energy price surge linked to the Iran conflict, with commodity goods up 21% and gasoline up 36%. Core inflation remained comparatively stable at 2.6% year over year, suggesting underlying price pressures are contained. The divergence has led markets to price in a prolonged Fed policy pause rather than rate cuts or hikes.

• The current energy shock exceeds the 2022 Russia-Ukraine spike, with gasoline up 36% versus 16% in March 2022 and CPI energy component rising more than the 14% seen then
• Core CPI at 2.6% and shelter inflation at 3.08% remain far below early 2022 levels of 6.5% and 4.26% respectively, indicating healthier underlying conditions
• Markets now expect a prolonged policy pause over the next two years, with the Fed unlikely to cut or raise rates unless core prices show sustained increases beyond energy

Evercore's Roger Altman warned that the U.S. naval blockade of Iran launched Monday will take months to achieve results, not the quick resolution markets appear to expect. Despite ongoing conflict, U.S. stocks rose and volatility remained low, which Altman argues creates risk by potentially testing the administration's patience if markets eventually turn negative on a protracted conflict.

• The U.S. has not achieved key strategic goals: Iran retains enriched uranium stores, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and no regime change has occurred
• Markets showed 'mild reaction' with major indices rising, VIX below 20, and Brent crude around $100, suggesting investors may be desensitized to escalating tensions
• China, as Iran's biggest customer, could be key to resolution, with focus on Trump's scheduled meeting with Xi Jinping next month

Multiple companies across biotech, convenience stores, and REIT sectors launched IPO roadshows on Monday, signaling renewed confidence as market volatility subsides. The VIX fear gauge fell below 20 last week for the first time in over a month, encouraging companies that had been waiting on the sidelines to move forward with listing plans despite ongoing Middle East tensions.

• Six companies made IPO filings public on Friday, adding to the near-term pipeline after February and March saw limited activity due to AI-disruption fears and Middle East conflict
• Analysts expect 2026 to be the best year for IPOs since the post-pandemic drought, even without mega listings, citing disciplined pricing and attractive valuations creating a 'buyer's market'
• Bill Ackman's Pershing Square kicked off roadshow for U.S. IPOs of his management company and a new fund, though uncertainty persists after failed U.S.-Iran talks

J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley view the recent market selloff driven by Middle East tensions as a buying opportunity, citing resilient corporate earnings and improving valuations. The S&P 500 has fallen 8% since the US-Israel war against Iran began but remains supported by strong earnings growth of 13.9% for Q1 2026. Both firms believe geopolitical shocks will prove temporary, though Morgan Stanley downgraded global equities in late March reflecting near-term caution.

• S&P 500 Q1 2026 earnings growth estimated at 13.9% as of April 10, up from 12.7% before the conflict, suggesting corporate fundamentals remain intact despite geopolitical volatility
• The 'Magnificent Seven' valuation premium has compressed sharply, with forward P/E ratio falling to 1.2x the S&P 500 from 1.7x previously, signaling potential sector rotation opportunities
• Morgan Stanley favors cyclical sectors (financials, industrials, consumer discretionary) and quality growth names like AI hyperscalers, while J.P. Morgan prefers international equities over US markets

David Cervantes, founder of Pinebook Capital, warns that fixed income markets, particularly long-duration government bonds, are the most vulnerable asset class in the current cycle. He expects the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance through 2024 due to stable labor markets and AI-driven economic resilience, keeping rates elevated and pressuring bond prices downward.

• Unemployment holding at 4.3% and AI-related investment contributing roughly 2% to GDP are providing economic buffers that reduce likelihood of Fed rate cuts in 2024
• Cervantes anticipates the Fed will shift toward more hawkish communication later this year, even without hiking rates, as core inflation remains elevated beyond energy markets
• The 10-year bond segment faces heightened risk as yields could remain elevated or move higher, putting downward pressure on prices

J.P.Morgan and Morgan Stanley are recommending investors buy U.S. stocks following recent market declines driven by Middle East conflict concerns. The S&P 500 dropped as much as 8% since the U.S.-Israel war against Iran began but has since recovered nearly 8% from its March low, with strategists citing resilient corporate earnings and improving valuations as support for further gains.

• S&P 500 earnings growth estimates for Q1 2026 increased to 13.9% as of April 10, up from 12.7% before the conflict began, demonstrating corporate resilience despite geopolitical tensions
• U.S. stocks outperformed during the selloff, with the S&P 500 down 8% compared to Europe's STOXX 600 falling over 11% and emerging markets entering correction territory
• The 'Magnificent Seven' valuation premium narrowed significantly, with their forward P/E ratio falling to 1.2x the S&P 500 from 1.7x, while strategists favor cyclical sectors and AI hyperscalers