General Market News

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran, a Trump appointee, is advising Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh to adopt a forward-looking approach to monetary policy rather than the data-dependent stance favored by outgoing Chair Jerome Powell. Miran's comments signal a potential shift in the Fed's policymaking framework as Warsh's confirmation faces delays due to Republican opposition tied to a Justice Department probe into Powell.

• Miran argues the current economy does not warrant strict data dependence, stating 'The time for data dependence is when you have enormous uncertainty. I don't think we have enormous uncertainty.'
• Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) has placed a hold on Warsh's nomination until the administration concludes its investigation into Powell, requiring an unlikely 60-vote discharge to advance confirmation.
• Miran joined the Fed board in August amid turmoil including a legal clash between the Trump administration and Governor Lisa Cook, whose case is now before the Supreme Court.

Kevin Warsh has been nominated as the next Fed Chairman, bringing crisis-tested experience from his 2006-2011 tenure as Fed Governor and a reputation as an inflation hawk. His appointment initially reassured bond markets by reducing uncertainty around monetary policy leadership. The nomination awaits Senate confirmation, with policy expected to remain data-dependent despite potential shifts in Fed communication and balance sheet management.

• Warsh's leadership would likely emphasize shrinking the Fed's balance sheet and potentially reducing forward guidance, which could increase bond market volatility and impact funding markets
• The FOMC's 12-member voting structure includes both Biden and Trump appointees plus regional bank presidents, ensuring policy remains driven by committee consensus rather than a single leader
• Senate confirmation may face delays due to a 'Powell subpoena' situation mentioned by the Senate Banking Committee, though the author expects Warsh will ultimately clear the process

January's economic data showed U.S. inflation cooling to 2.4% year-over-year while the labor market added 130,000 jobs and unemployment held at 4.3%, reviving hopes for a 'soft landing' scenario in 2026. The CPI rose 0.2% monthly, slightly below expectations, though core inflation remained sticky at 2.5% annually, driven largely by persistent shelter costs.

• Headline CPI rose 0.2% in January (below the 0.3% forecast), with energy prices falling 1.5% and gasoline down 3.2%, while core CPI increased 0.3% monthly with shelter up 3.0% year-over-year
• Nonfarm payrolls grew by 130,000 jobs with gains concentrated in healthcare (82,000) and social assistance (42,000), while average hourly earnings rose 3.7% annually to $37.17
• Annual benchmark revisions cut 2025 job gains from 584,000 to just 181,000, suggesting the labor market has cooled significantly from its post-pandemic pace and making future data releases more critical

Gold experienced a sudden flash crash on Thursday morning, plunging from $5,068 to $4,889 in just 20 minutes with no clear catalyst, leaving Wall Street analysts bewildered. The yellow metal recovered quickly to reclaim $5,000 support, but the extreme volatility has left institutional investors uncertain while retail traders remain bullish ahead of a holiday-shortened trading week.

• Wall Street sentiment shifted neutral (33% bullish, 25% bearish, 42% sideways) after the unexplained selloff, while Main Street investors held at 63% bullish in Kitco's survey of 257 retail traders
• CME gold futures open interest has dropped by nearly 150,000 contracts since late January as retail traders migrate to smaller 'mini' contracts, with analysts suggesting speculators and momentum traders are now driving volatility more than institutional players
• Analysts cited multiple risks for next week including thin holiday trading (U.S. Presidents Day, Chinese New Year), potential Supreme Court ruling on presidential tariff powers, and Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh's upcoming rhetoric as key factors to watch

The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index for January 2026 reveals significant disparities in how inflation affects different spending categories and households. Medical Care, Housing, and Food have each grown over 100% since 2000, while categories like college tuition (up nearly 200%) and daycare (up nearly 160%) have surged even more dramatically. Core inflation stands at 2.50% annualized, slightly above headline CPI at 2.39%, but cumulative CPI since 2000 has increased 93.3%.

• Three categories—Medical Care, Housing, and Food & Beverage—have each increased over 100% since 2000, with food costs spiking significantly post-pandemic
• College tuition and fees have risen nearly 200% since 2000, while daycare and preschool costs have surged 160%, with accelerated growth starting in late 2022 after pandemic-era grants expired
• Energy costs (6.3% of total expenditures) are distributed across categories rather than tracked separately, and core inflation excludes food and energy but includes alcoholic beverages, creating disparate impacts on different household types

President Donald Trump faces growing Republican opposition as his approval ratings decline ahead of the 2026 midterms, particularly on economic issues. Six House Republicans voted to overturn his Canadian tariffs, Senator Tillis is blocking his Fed chair nominee, and the administration pulled back immigration enforcement in Minnesota. The mounting challenges coincide with fallout from released DOJ files on Jeffrey Epstein that mention Trump and several administration officials.

• Six House Republicans defied Trump by voting to overturn tariffs on Canada, while the GOP can only afford to lose one vote on party-line measures, demonstrating weakened party discipline on his signature economic policy
• Senator Tillis is blocking Trump's Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh until DOJ drops its investigation of current chair Jerome Powell, with multiple Banking Committee Republicans stating they don't believe Powell committed a crime
• Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick admitted visiting Epstein's island in 2012 following DOJ's release of millions of Epstein files, intensifying scrutiny of administration officials' connections to the convicted predator

U.S. markets experienced a volatile week ending February 13, 2026, with the Dow Jones hitting record highs early in the week before all major indices headed for weekly losses. AI disruption concerns and fears that a resilient labor market could delay Federal Reserve interest rate cuts weighed on sentiment, pushing the VIX toward its fifth consecutive weekly gain—the longest streak since March 2020.

• The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq are all on track for weekly losses despite record closes earlier in the week, driven by widespread AI disruption fears that emerged Thursday
• Strong jobs data initially boosted markets Wednesday, but sentiment turned negative when investors realized growth was concentrated in only a few sectors like healthcare, reducing expectations for Fed rate cuts
• Earnings season continued with mixed results: some companies rallied on strong AI-related guidance and beat-and-raise reports, while others tumbled on disappointing results and weak outlooks, with one stock marking its worst daily drop in decades

Elon Musk's SpaceX is considering implementing a dual-class share structure for its planned IPO, which could value the company at over $1.5 trillion. The structure would allow Musk to retain voting control while raising capital. SpaceX is also expanding its board of directors to oversee the IPO process.

• The planned IPO could value SpaceX at over $1.5 trillion, making it one of the largest public offerings in history
• Dual-class share structures typically give founders greater voting power than their economic ownership stake would normally allow, enabling Musk to maintain control
• SpaceX is adding board members to oversee the IPO and expand operations beyond its core rocket and satellite businesses

The January 2026 Consumer Price Index shows inflation cooling to 2.4% year-over-year, with notable easing in essential categories like energy (down 1.5% monthly) and food (up 2.8% annually). Consumers are increasingly using installment plans and buy now, pay later tools to manage cash flow, with 31% utilizing credit card installments in recent months.

• Shelter costs remain elevated at 3% year-over-year but show slower monthly momentum at 0.2%, suggesting housing-related pressures may be gradually easing
• Services inflation persists with food away from home up 4% and medical care services up 3.9% annually, while goods-related inflation shows clearer deceleration
• Lower-income consumers earning under $50,000 continue allocating major income portions to essentials: 37% to housing, 25% to food, and 13% to monthly bills

U.S. stocks rallied Friday after January's Consumer Price Index rose only 0.2% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year, both below expectations. The softer-than-anticipated inflation data suggests cooling price pressures may give the Federal Reserve more flexibility to cut interest rates sooner than previously expected.

• January CPI increased 0.2% monthly versus 0.3% expected, with annual inflation at 2.4%, signaling continued disinflation progress toward the Fed's target
• Declining gasoline prices helped offset persistent increases in shelter and food costs, providing critical relief in keeping overall inflation from re-accelerating
• Market experts suggest the favorable inflation data, combined with recent jobs numbers, could prompt the Fed to begin rate cuts earlier than currently anticipated by markets

UBS analyst Matthew Mish warns that AI disruption could trigger $75 billion to $120 billion in defaults in the leveraged loan and private credit markets by late 2026, potentially causing a credit crunch. The $3.5 trillion markets, heavily exposed to private equity-backed software and data services firms, face faster-than-expected disruption from recent AI model advances. Companies with high debt loads are particularly vulnerable as AI transforms the competitive landscape more rapidly than previously anticipated.

• Baseline scenario projects combined defaults of $75-$120 billion by end of 2026 in the $1.5 trillion leveraged loan and $2 trillion private credit markets, with default rates rising by up to 2.5% and 4% respectively
• Private equity-owned software and data services companies with high debt levels are most at risk, as recent AI models from Anthropic and OpenAI have accelerated disruption timelines from 2027-2028 to immediate concerns
• A more severe 'tail risk' scenario could double the default estimates and trigger a broader credit crunch, though UBS is not yet forecasting this outcome while acknowledging the market is moving in that direction

U.S. stock markets declined sharply this week as AI disruption fears spread across multiple sectors, pushing the Nasdaq near three-month lows and the S&P 500 below its 50-day moving average. While chip-equipment makers and some aerospace stocks rallied on strong earnings, concerns about AI undermining incumbents hit wealth management, commercial real estate, software, and networking sectors. Mixed earnings from major companies including Cisco Systems, AppLovin, and Robinhood added to market volatility.

• AI disruption fears widened beyond software to wealth management firms like Charles Schwab and Raymond James, commercial real estate companies like CBRE, and logistics firms like C.H. Robinson Worldwide, triggering sharp selloffs.
• Cisco Systems fell after warning of memory chip margin pressure despite beating estimates and reporting AI network infrastructure orders exceeding $2.1 billion, while Arista Networks surged on strong results and doubled AI networking revenue outlook to $3.25 billion.
• Semiconductor equipment makers remained strong with Applied Materials, Entegris, and Advanced Energy posting beat-and-raise reports, benefiting from heightened chipmaker spending on AI data center equipment.

U.S. stock markets showed mixed performance on February 13, 2026, as cooler-than-expected inflation data (CPI at 2.4% yearly) failed to lift tech stocks following a sharp selloff driven by AI disruption fears. The Dow and S&P 500 posted modest gains while the Nasdaq struggled, with investor concerns spreading from software stocks to financials, real estate, and media sectors.

• January CPI rose 0.2% monthly and 2.4% yearly, below consensus estimates, providing the Fed breathing room but not changing rate cut expectations as inflation remains above the 2% target.
• AI-related fears triggered sector-wide selloffs: Charles Schwab down 10%, Morgan Stanley down 6%, Workday and CBRE dropped double-digits, Walt Disney fell 3%, and Netflix declined 7% for the week.
• Technical analysis shows the S&P 500's 50-day moving average at 6,895 has become key resistance, with potential downside risk to the 200-day moving average at 6,405 if 'buy the dip' strategies fail.

Multiple companies have reduced IPO sizes or postponed U.S. listings in 2026 due to market volatility and valuation concerns. Clear Street, Brazilian fintech Agibank, and Blackstone-backed Liftoff Mobile are among firms affected by heightened investor scrutiny and weak performance of recently listed peers. Despite Goldman Sachs predicting IPOs could double to 120 this year, a software stock selloff has highlighted valuation risks.

• Clear Street postponed its IPO citing 'market conditions' after slashing its deal size by 65% just hours before the planned listing
• Agibank completed a downsized IPO but its stock plunged nearly 15% from the offer price by Thursday's close, reflecting weak investor appetite
• Liftoff Mobile delayed its New York listing last week amid a steep selloff in software stocks, planning to revisit the offering when conditions improve

US Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% year-over-year in January, below the expected 2.5%, with core CPI at 2.5%, its lowest since March 2021. The cooler-than-expected inflation data has reignited debate over whether the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates soon, though a March cut remains highly unlikely. Analysts suggest the easing inflation gives the Fed flexibility while investor focus shifts from rate cuts to company fundamentals and AI-driven growth.

• Real interest rates remain restrictive at 3.5%-3.75%, materially higher than inflation, prompting calls for modest rate cuts to prevent overtightening in sectors like housing and business investment
• Market focus is shifting away from rate cut speculation toward corporate fundamentals and AI disruption potential, with the Fed expected to proceed cautiously with only a couple of rate cuts later in 2026
• January's report showed mixed components: airfares jumped while used car and shelter costs softened, maintaining a gradual disinflation trend that keeps the possibility for easing alive

A Federal Reserve Bank of New York study found that US businesses and consumers bore approximately 90% of the cost of President Trump's 2025 tariffs, contradicting his claims that foreign countries were paying. The findings come as the White House faces political pressure ahead of midterm elections and is reviewing potential exemptions to tariffs that pushed duties up to 50% on metal imports and related products.

• In the first eight months of 2025, 94% of tariff costs fell on American businesses and consumers, with that figure remaining near 90% through October according to the New York Fed study
• Tariff collections reached $287 billion in calendar year 2025, nearly tripling the previous year and representing a 304% increase, making them the largest tax increase since 1993
• The White House is reviewing exemptions and considering more targeted national security investigations rather than expanding tariffs further, as some Republican lawmakers join Democrats in supporting legislation to overturn certain levies

US consumer price inflation eased to 2.4% year-over-year in January 2026, below the expected 2.5% and down from December's 2.7%. Despite the softer headline figure, core inflation remained steady at 2.5% annually, and strong labor market data suggest the Federal Reserve will likely keep interest rates unchanged in its current 3.50%-3.75% range.

• Monthly price increases of 0.2% came in below the 0.3% forecast, while core inflation rose 0.3% monthly, indicating gradual cooling with persistent underlying price pressures
• Recent strong jobs data and unemployment falling to 4.3% give the Fed room to remain patient, with only one more CPI report expected before the mid-March policy meeting
• Economists anticipate temporary inflation pickup later in 2026 due to Trump's import tariffs and a 7.4% dollar decline in 2025, complicating the Fed's balancing act

The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to appoint Randall Guynn, a former Wall Street lawyer at Davis Polk who represented major banks, as its new director of supervision and regulation. The appointment marks a departure from the Fed's tradition of filling the role with career staff since 1977. Guynn will help Vice Chair Michelle Bowman overhaul post-2008 banking rules and reduce the supervision division's headcount by roughly 30%.

• Guynn previously led Davis Polk's Financial Institutions Group and represented the eight largest U.S. lenders, raising potential conflict-of-interest concerns similar to other Wall Street attorneys moving into regulatory roles
• The supervision division oversees the nation's largest banks and will be restructured under Bowman's plan to cut staff by approximately 30% to around 350 people through attrition and buyouts
• Guynn has criticized efforts to raise bank capital requirements and advocated for tailored prudential standards based on institution size and risk, signaling a shift toward lighter regulation

US inflation fell to 2.4% in January 2025, down from 2.7% in December, as economists had predicted a slight easing to 2.5%. The decline comes amid price fluctuations triggered by Trump's tariffs and follows a volatile year where inflation ranged from 2.3% to 3%. Polling shows voters increasingly disapprove of Trump's economic management, particularly on inflation, posing challenges for Republicans ahead of midterm elections.

• Monthly prices rose 0.2% from December to January, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) increasing 0.3% over the month
• The Federal Reserve held off on a rate cut in January and remains uncertain about March, with Fed Chair Powell expecting tariff effects to peak and then decline throughout 2025
• Trump's approval rating fell to 37% in February polling, with inflation being his lowest-rated issue despite campaign promises to tackle high prices

Inflation slowed to 2.4% in January, undershooting expectations and matching its May 2025 pace, despite concerns that President Trump's tariffs would increase prices. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, decelerated to 2.5%, its lowest level since 2021.

• The Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% in January, below expectations and decelerating from recent months
• Core inflation dropped to 2.5%, the coolest level since 2021
• The economy appears to be avoiding immediate inflationary effects from Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs that economists had warned could reheat prices