General Market News

The article identifies three warning signs suggesting the stock market may be in an AI bubble, despite tech stocks like the Nasdaq-100 gaining 117% over three years. Major tech companies are spending hundreds of billions on AI infrastructure, engaging in complex financing deals, while actual monetization and return on investment remain uncertain.

• Big tech firms spent hundreds of billions on AI capital expenditures last year, with OpenAI planning $1.4 trillion in spending over eight years despite only $20 billion in annualized revenue
• Companies are using unusual financial engineering including off-balance-sheet debt deals (Meta's $27 billion arrangement with Blue Owl Capital) and 'circular financing' arrangements that create risky interconnectedness
• Only 3% of AI users pay for premium services, raising doubts about adequate returns on massive infrastructure investments and whether AI will deliver transformative benefits comparable to previous innovations like PCs or cloud computing

Kevin Warsh, nominated as the next Federal Reserve chair, wants to significantly reduce the Fed's $6.6 trillion balance sheet, but financial experts say this goal will be extremely difficult to achieve without destabilizing markets. The Fed's current system of managing interest rates relies on banks holding about $3 trillion in reserves, and any major reduction in Fed holdings could tighten financial conditions and create money market volatility.

• The Fed reduced its balance sheet from a $9 trillion peak in 2022 to $6.6 trillion by late 2025, but had to resume Treasury bill purchases in December to maintain adequate market liquidity
• Banks require roughly $3 trillion in reserves to prevent money market volatility, which limits how much the Fed can shrink its holdings without threatening its ability to control interest rates
• Analysts expect Warsh will take a pragmatic, slow approach involving regulatory changes and coordination with Treasury rather than aggressive balance sheet reduction

The energy sector has emerged as the best-performing U.S. stock sector in 2026, gaining 12.9% year-to-date as of February 2. The surge is driven by electricity demand from AI data center expansion, which is pushing U.S. power consumption growth to roughly five times the pace of the past decade. Basic materials followed with 11.58% gains, while technology declined 0.8%.

• Energy sector's outperformance is fueled by surging electricity demand from AI data center buildout, benefiting power producers, natural gas suppliers, and nuclear firms providing reliable high-capacity energy
• Clean energy has shifted toward demand-led growth rather than subsidy reliance, with renewables attracting fresh capital as the lowest-cost and fastest-to-deploy options for peak power
• Policy support from the Trump administration for large-scale renewables, domestic production, and LNG exports has further stabilized the sector and boosted activity

German retail sales rose 0.1% in December compared to the previous month, falling slightly short of economist expectations of a 0.2% increase. The modest growth signals continued weakness in consumer spending in Europe's largest economy.

• Retail sales increased 0.1% month-over-month in December, missing the 0.2% forecast by Reuters-polled analysts
• The underwhelming growth reflects ongoing challenges in German consumer demand and economic activity
• Data was released by Germany's federal statistics office on February 2, 2026

Wall Street analysts recommend three energy sector dividend stocks for stable income amid market volatility: Viper Energy (5.53% yield), SLB (recently raised dividend 3.5%), and EOG Resources ($1.02 quarterly dividend). All three companies are positioned to benefit from strong cash flows, international growth opportunities, and strategic operations in oil-weighted basins.

• Viper Energy expected to deliver strong Q4 results with 66,552 Bopd oil production, about 1% above Street estimates, and is more insulated from drilling cuts due to Diamondback's operational control of 60% of production
• SLB's 2026 growth driven by international segment gains in Latin America, Middle East and Asia, plus exclusive Western presence in Venezuela's oil industry, with expected free cash flow of $4.2 billion and $4.3 billion in shareholder returns
• EOG Resources stands out with peer-leading production growth potential and $4 billion available for opportunistic buybacks as of Q3 2025, while focusing on capital efficiencies in Utica Shale and Delaware Basin

Consumer sentiment showed signs of cautious improvement in January 2026, rising to 56.4 from previous lows, though still down significantly from 2024 levels. Analysts predict a structural shift toward value-conscious purchasing, with consumers demanding better quality and longevity rather than just low prices. This shift creates uncertainty for businesses and investors in consumer-facing sectors.

• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index reached 56.4 in January, up for the second consecutive month but still down from 71.7 a year earlier
• Market observers note a 'K-shaped economy' emerging, with widening gaps between high- and low-income consumer behavior and spending patterns
• Analyst recommends avoiding new positions in consumer discretionary and travel stocks, while holding beaten-down consumer staples like Clorox (CLX), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), and Target (TGT) that yield dividends, with Campbell's (CPB) at 5.8% and General Mills (GIS) at 5.4% as potential additions

Kevin Warsh has been nominated as the new Federal Reserve chairman, taking over from Jerome Powell on May 15. Known as an inflation hawk who warned against excessive money printing by previous Fed chairs, Warsh faces the challenge of satisfying President Trump's desire for lower rates while maintaining credibility on inflation control. His selection represents a departure from Trump's earlier preference for a more accommodative Fed chief.

• Warsh previously warned that Bernanke, Yellen, and Powell's money-printing policies would cause runaway inflation, which materialized at 9% during the Biden years
• Trump chose Warsh over the more dovish Kevin Hassett after Wall Street advised that bond markets require a credible Fed chair, not a 'patsy' willing to inflate at all costs
• Warsh plans to 'thread the needle' by lowering short-term rates while shrinking the Fed's balance sheet to control the 10-year Treasury yield and bring inflation toward the 2% target

Larry Kudlow endorses Kevin Warsh as the ideal candidate for Federal Reserve leadership, highlighting his previous Fed experience and commitment to supply-side economics. Kudlow argues Warsh will transform Fed policy by reducing money printing, shrinking the Fed's balance sheet, and focusing on the institution's core mission. The endorsement comes as part of broader support for Trump's economic team following the passage of major legislation signed July 4, 2025.

• Warsh previously served as Fed governor and advocates that excess government spending and money printing, not economic growth or employment, cause inflation and high interest rates
• Kudlow expects Warsh to reduce the Fed's bond portfolio, allow Treasury to handle fiscal policy, and clamp down on insider trading compliance issues that Powell allegedly ignored
• The endorsement positions Warsh as part of a 'very strong economic team' including Kevin Hassett at the National Economic Council and Scott Bessent at Treasury to support supply-side productivity growth

President Trump plans to nominate Brett Matsumoto, a career economist who has worked at the Bureau of Labor Statistics since 2015, to head the agency. The selection follows Trump's controversial firing of the previous commissioner in August after unfavorable job market data and the withdrawal of a partisan nominee who faced widespread criticism. The appointment of a nonpartisan career staffer is expected to ease concerns about political interference in the agency's critical economic data.

• Matsumoto has served as a BLS economist since 2015 with no prior political experience, holding a Ph.D. in economics from UNC Chapel Hill
• The BLS has been without a permanent commissioner since Trump fired Erika McEntarfer on August 1, hours after the agency published large downward job growth revisions
• The BLS, with over 2,000 employees, produces critical economic statistics including unemployment and inflation rates that investors, businesses, and the Federal Reserve rely on for key decisions

Kevin Warsh, President Trump's nominee for Federal Reserve Chair, has earned over $1 million since 2020 serving on the board of Coupang, an e-commerce company now central to U.S.-South Korea trade tensions. The company faces regulatory scrutiny in South Korea after a data leak, with some U.S. investors claiming discrimination, while Trump recently raised tariffs on South Korean imports to 25%. Federal Reserve rules will require Warsh to divest outside employment and comply with strict financial holding restrictions if confirmed.

• Warsh has earned nearly $325,000 annually from Coupang since 2022 and also serves on UPS's board with similar compensation, positions he must relinquish under Fed rules requiring governors to 'devote their entire time to the business of the Board'
• The Coupang issue has escalated trade tensions, with VP Vance discussing it with South Korea's PM before Trump raised tariffs on Korean autos and goods from 15% to 25%
• New Fed members have six months to comply with post-2021 rules banning individual stock purchases, derivatives, and certain securities holdings following a trading scandal that led to two regional bank presidents' resignations

Private equity firm Thoma Bravo is exploring a sale of Imprivata, a healthcare identity software provider, in a process that could value the company at up to $7 billion. The firm acquired Imprivata in 2016 for $544 million and has since expanded it through acquisitions. JPMorgan and Evercore are advising on the early-stage sale process.

• Imprivata currently generates around $500 million in revenue and is experiencing rapid growth, representing a substantial return on Thoma Bravo's 2016 acquisition at $544 million
• The sale is expected to attract interest from both corporations and private equity firms, driven by elevated demand for cybersecurity solutions amid AI adoption and data protection concerns
• High-growth cybersecurity companies command premium valuations, with comparable transactions like CyberArk valued at over 17 times forward revenue

SpaceX generated approximately $8 billion in profit on $15-16 billion in revenue last year, according to sources familiar with the company's financials. The strong performance has led banks to estimate the company could raise over $50 billion at a valuation exceeding $1.5 trillion in an anticipated IPO later this year. Starlink, SpaceX's satellite internet service, accounts for 50-80% of total revenue.

• The $8 billion figure represents EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization), demonstrating strong operating performance with roughly 50% profit margins
• Starlink satellite internet is the primary revenue driver, contributing between 50% to 80% of SpaceX's total revenue
• SpaceX is reportedly in talks about a potential merger with Elon Musk's AI company xAI ahead of the public offering

President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to serve as the next Federal Reserve chairman, selecting a former Fed governor who served from 2006 to 2011 and was previously considered for the role in 2017. Business leaders and trade groups widely praised the nomination, citing Warsh's monetary policy experience and understanding of financial markets. The nomination comes as current Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term is set to expire in May.

• Warsh brings extensive experience, having been the youngest Fed governor in history and serving during the financial crisis, plus holding roles at JPMorgan, the Bush administration, Stanford, and UPS's board
• Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan and UPS CEO Carol Tomé, who worked with Warsh for 13 years, endorsed his nomination, praising his financial markets knowledge and crisis management expertise
• Industry groups including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, American Bankers Association, and Investment Company Institute expressed support, emphasizing his understanding of the Fed's dual mandate and community banking's role

President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve Board Governor (2006-2011), to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chairman when Powell's term expires in May. The nomination comes amid a controversial DOJ criminal inquiry into Powell's congressional testimony about Fed headquarters renovations, prompting concerns about Fed independence from at least one Republican senator who has vowed to block any Fed nominee until the probe is dropped.

• Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott (R-S.C.) pledged a 'thoughtful and timely confirmation process' and emphasized that Fed independence remains paramount
• Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) vowed to oppose confirmation of any Fed nominee, including Warsh, until the DOJ investigation into Powell is 'fully and transparently resolved'
• Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) criticized Warsh for 'caring more about helping big banks after the 2008 crash than millions of unemployed Americans' and accused him of passing Trump's 'loyalty test'

President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor (2006-2011), as the next Fed chair. Markets view Warsh as experienced and credible but potentially less dovish than expected, given his criticism of quantitative easing and forward guidance. His nomination comes amid elevated inflation and intense political scrutiny of the central bank.

• Warsh is known for criticizing the Fed's reliance on 'central bank fast food' (forward guidance and balance sheet expansion), arguing these tools distorted markets and blurred monetary-fiscal policy lines
• Markets reacted with modest dollar strength and higher 10-year Treasury yields, reflecting expectations that a Warsh-led Fed would be more restrained in using balance sheet tools
• Analysts note Warsh's biggest challenge will be maintaining confidence in the Fed's independence while balancing political pressure for rate cuts against persistent inflation above the Fed's target

U.S. markets ended a volatile week with the Dow Jones heading for its third consecutive weekly decline, though still on track for a ninth straight monthly gain in February. The week was dominated by major tech earnings from Microsoft and Meta, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision maintaining rates in the 3.5% to 3.75% range, and concerns over a potential partial government shutdown.

• The S&P 500 failed to hold above 7,000 this week, pulling back after the Fed's rate decision and Microsoft's warning about slower growth, triggering triple-digit drops in the Nasdaq
• Major tech companies reported earnings with mixed results: Meta and Apple delivered, while Microsoft disappointed with growth concerns, and various tech deals included IonQ's $1.8 billion acquisition of SkyWater Technology
• Despite weekly losses for the Dow, all three major indexes (Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500) remained on track for monthly gains, with important jobs data and additional earnings from Amazon, Disney, Uber, and others expected in the coming week

President Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh, a Fed veteran who served from 2006-2011 during the financial crisis, to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair. Warsh is known for his hawkish stance on monetary policy and criticism of the Fed's post-crisis bond-buying programs. Despite Trump's desire for aggressive rate cuts, Warsh's conservative approach may not align with the president's expectations, though his pragmatic reputation could help him navigate FOMC consensus.

• Warsh served as a Fed governor during the 2008 financial crisis but later became a critic, voting against the second round of quantitative easing and warning that large-scale asset purchases and near-zero rates risk distorting markets
• Multiple FOMC members currently oppose further rate cuts until inflation clearly moves toward the 2% target, with officials projecting only one cut in 2026 and one in 2027, limiting Warsh's ability to deliver Trump's desired aggressive easing
• Senate confirmation faces complications as Republican Sen. Thom Tillis vowed to block Fed nominees until a Justice Department investigation into the Fed's headquarters renovation is resolved, though Warsh is expected to have broad bipartisan support

President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair faces a Senate confirmation roadblock. Republican Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina, who sits on the Senate Banking Committee, is blocking any Fed nominee until the Justice Department concludes its criminal investigation into Powell's congressional testimony. This opposition could significantly delay or complicate Warsh's confirmation process.

• Sen. Thom Tillis placed a hold on Warsh's nomination, citing concerns about DOJ's 'unprecedented' criminal probe into Powell over testimony regarding Fed building renovations that Tillis says lacks criminal intent
• Overriding Tillis's committee hold would require a discharge vote needing 60 Senate votes, which is unlikely in the current divided chamber
• Powell's term expires in May 2026, and he publicly called the criminal investigation an example of threats against central bank independence

President Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor and Stanford fellow, to chair the Federal Reserve, succeeding Jerome Powell in May. Experts predict Warsh will aggressively ease Wall Street banking regulations and align Fed policy more closely with the Trump administration's deregulatory agenda. His appointment signals a shift toward reduced Fed independence on regulatory matters and greater political oversight of bank supervision.

• Warsh has publicly stated the Fed should not write bank rules independently from political oversight, contrasting with traditional Fed independence on regulatory policy
• He is expected to support Vice Chair Bowman's sweeping effort to reduce Wall Street capital requirements and ease supervision rules, the most significant deregulatory push since the 2008 financial crisis
• Wall Street banks welcomed the nomination, citing Warsh's prior Fed experience during the 2008 crisis and his view that 'regulation has been very bad' in recent years, providing 'sand in the gears of the economy'

Will Danoff, who has managed Fidelity's $176 billion Contrafund since 1990 with an average annualized return of over 14% that consistently beat the S&P 500, will retire at year's end. His successors Jason Weiner and Asher Anolic will continue his strategy of seeking 'tomorrow's blue chips' among international stocks and small- to mid-cap firms. The fund's long-term success includes early investments in Google and current positions in private companies like SpaceX and Anthropic.

• Danoff achieved 14% annualized returns through January 26, 2026, outperforming both the S&P 500 and comparable growth indexes since taking over in 1990
• A hypothetical $10,000 investment in Contrafund in 1993 would now be worth more than $650,000 net of fees
• The fund is shifting focus toward international stocks, small- and mid-cap companies, and recently public firms (past 5-7 years) expected to grow faster than current top holdings like Meta, Nvidia, and Amazon