General Market News

Cryptocurrency exchange Bitget reported a theft highlighting the industry's ongoing vulnerability to hackers. In 2024, attackers stole $2.9 billion worth of crypto across nearly 150 different attacks. The article outlines the biggest crypto heists since Bitcoin's creation in 2008, including incidents linked to organized crime and nation-state actors.

• Bybit suffered the largest crypto theft on record in February 2025, with $1.5 billion in ether stolen; the FBI attributed the attack to North Korea, though the country has denied involvement in crypto heists
• Other major thefts include Poly Network ($610 million in 2021, mostly returned), Ronin Network ($540 million in 2022), Coincheck ($530 million in 2018), and Mt. Gox ($500 million between 2011-2014)
• The heists underscore vulnerabilities in both centralized exchanges and decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms, with criminals using crypto to transfer funds across borders outside the mainstream financial system

Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid warned that regulators need to assess whether the AI industry and its expanding network of firms and data centers is becoming 'too big to fail.' He drew parallels to the 2007-2009 financial crisis, when major financial institutions required public bailouts due to their systemic importance to the broader economy.

• Schmid expressed concern about understanding the internal workings and potential systemic risks within the growing AI ecosystem and data center infrastructure
• The 'too big to fail' reference relates to institutions that became so large and interconnected they required government intervention during the financial crisis
• The Fed is beginning to evaluate whether the concentration of AI firms and contracts poses similar systemic risks to financial stability

U.S. stock indices are pushing toward key psychological resistance levels, with the Nasdaq targeting 31,000, the Dow Jones eyeing 52,000, and the S&P 500 testing 7,800. The rally comes as interest rates show signs of easing, potentially providing support for continued upward momentum across major indices.

• The Nasdaq 100 has rallied past the 30,000 floor and is testing the 31,000 psychological resistance level, with that floor serving as major support for any pullbacks
• The S&P 500 is holding above its 50-day EMA at 7,640 and targeting the 7,800 resistance level, which previously acted as a ceiling
• The Dow Jones 30 has underperformed the other indices due to energy inflation headwinds but is approaching the 52,000 resistance mark

The Nasdaq rose 0.30% on Friday as investors rotated out of energy stocks and into AI infrastructure companies following news that Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. AI-related stocks like Akamai (+8.27%), Dell (+4.01%), and Flex (+3.95%) surged, while energy names like Valero (-2.82%) and Devon Energy (-2.46%) declined as oil prices dropped on diplomatic hopes.

• The Nasdaq is testing resistance at 26,997 to 27,066, with Friday's high of 27,051 stopping within this zone, while the S&P 500 backed off its 7,722 to 7,737 retracement level
• WTI crude fell toward $93 and Brent toward $105 on Iran's conditional offer to reopen Hormuz, though physical risks remain with only nine tanker transits versus normal levels and continued Houthi attacks on Saudi targets
• The 10-year Treasury yield stayed elevated near 5.18% (highest since 2007), with Fed funds futures pricing 66% odds of an October rate hike, while buying remained concentrated in specific AI infrastructure names rather than broad technology gains

Data center operator DayOne plans to go public in November despite a tougher IPO market, while SoftBank-backed SB Energy has delayed its offering amid valuation and customer concentration concerns. The divergence highlights how investors now favor data center operators with diversified customer bases, secured power supplies, and operational facilities over those heavily reliant on single customers or requiring large upfront capital.

• DayOne targets a $5 billion IPO at approximately $20 billion valuation, supported by 2.1 gigawatts of capacity bookings across Asia-Pacific and Europe with diversified customers
• SB Energy postponed its IPO plans due to SEC questions, investor concerns over its $60 billion valuation target, and heavy reliance on OpenAI as a major customer
• Higher interest rates and increased scrutiny are forcing data center companies to demonstrate contracted revenue from creditworthy customers to justify billions in upfront investment for AI-ready facilities

US stocks rose modestly on Friday, with the Dow gaining 190 points, as oil prices retreated on potential diplomatic progress to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, Treasury yields remained near multi-year highs, with the 10-year at 5.188% and the 30-year at 5.49%, keeping pressure on equity valuations and raising expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening.

• Treasury yields hit their highest levels since 2007 (10-year) and 2004 (30-year), with Fed funds futures pricing a 68% probability of an October rate hike amid hawkish Fed comments and high energy prices
• Oil prices fell approximately 2% (WTI to ~$92) after Iran proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if certain US conditions are met and nuclear talks resume
• Technology stocks showed mixed performance: Akamai surged on a multiyear AI deal with Anthropic, while Meta approached $2 trillion valuation, though higher yields are pressuring long-duration tech valuations

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced that the U.S. and China have reached agreements on trade terms for a subset of goods, with detailed information scheduled for release on Monday. The agreements cover U.S. agricultural products and medical devices, as well as non-sensitive Chinese consumer goods, representing progress in negotiations between the world's two largest economies.

• Trade agreements cover specific product categories including U.S. agricultural products, medical devices, and Chinese consumer goods deemed non-sensitive
• USTR plans to release comprehensive details on Monday about achievements from several weeks of bilateral negotiations
• The agreements allow the covered goods to be traded on more favorable terms between the two countries

Treasury yields surged to multi-year highs this week, with the 10-year yield hitting its highest level and raising concerns about potential market disruptions. The rise in yields is pressuring mortgage rates and exposing tensions between Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, while also impacting broader market sentiment and asset classes.

• The 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest level, with the sharp upswing prompting analysts to warn that 'something is going to break' in markets
• Average 30-year fixed mortgage rates increased yesterday, with experts warning that rising yields will lead to higher borrowing costs across the board
• Despite Treasury market pressure, the S&P 500 is on track for its first winning week in three, while the Nasdaq faces its fourth consecutive weekly loss

U.S. stock futures are attempting to recover after Thursday's selloff, with Nasdaq-100 futures up 0.52% and S&P 500 futures up 0.26%, while the 10-year Treasury yield remains near 5.23%, its highest level since 2007. A record 45% of S&P 500 stocks now trade with negative correlation to the index, more than double the rate during the 2000 dot-com collapse, highlighting extreme market concentration in mega-cap tech stocks. The divergence reflects persistent concerns about elevated bond yields, rising mortgage rates, and the sustainability of AI-driven capital spending.

• The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.23% and the 30-year reached 5.50%, pushing the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 7.45% (highest since 2024), while Fed funds futures show 68% odds of another rate hike in October
• Market concentration has reached unprecedented levels: the top 8 S&P 500 stocks have a beta of 1.23 versus 0.87 for the other 492 stocks, with 45% of constituents showing negative three-month correlation to the index
• The Nasdaq-100 is up 1.6% for the week while the Dow heads for its fourth consecutive weekly loss, as UBS warns markets are increasingly dependent on AI capital spending following Oracle's force majeure report on a New Mexico data center project

US stock futures rose on Friday, with Nasdaq 100 futures gaining 145 points (0.4%) as AI-driven optimism in semiconductor stocks offset concerns about oil prices exceeding $100 and the 10-year Treasury yield approaching 5.1%. Akamai surged 21% premarket after securing an $11.6 billion cloud infrastructure deal with Anthropic, potentially expandable by another $9 billion.

• Semiconductor stocks (AMD, Marvell, Intel) rose approximately 2% premarket, driving tech gains as AI spending expands beyond GPUs into CPUs and cloud infrastructure.
• Akamai's $11.6 billion Anthropic contract (with potential $9 billion expansion and warrants for up to 5% equity) signals major AI infrastructure investment shift.
• Markets assign 71% probability to another Fed quarter-point rate hike in October, with August durable goods data and Fed speakers scheduled for Friday potentially moving odds.
• Brent crude holding above $100 (reaching $106.60) and sustained 10-year yields above 5% pose compression risk to technology stock multiples despite strong earnings.

Cryptocurrency exchange Bitget suspended customer withdrawals after hackers stole approximately $351.6 million from its wallets on Thursday. The Seychelles-based platform, which serves over 120 million users, claims all customer funds remain safe and the loss is covered by the company's own reserves.

• Bitget detected 'unauthorised transfers' from some wallets and temporarily suspended withdrawals as a security precaution, not due to fund shortfalls
• The $351.6 million theft adds to a pattern of major crypto exchange hacks, including last year's $1.5 billion Bybit theft attributed by the FBI to North Korean hackers
• Bitget is one of the world's largest crypto exchanges with more than 120 million users globally

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has rapidly reshaped the central bank's approach 127 days into his tenure, abandoning traditional forward guidance in favor of a broad financial conditions framework. He raised rates by a quarter-point last week, the first hike since 2023, as inflation runs at 3.7% versus the Fed's 2% target. However, larger institutional reforms like shrinking the Fed's $6.7 trillion balance sheet are progressing slowly as he seeks consensus through task forces.

• Markets expect additional rate hikes, with the 2-year Treasury yield trading nearly a full percentage point above the federal funds rate, the largest spread since 2023, as inflation has exceeded the Fed's 2% target for over 5.5 years
• Warsh's new framework emphasizes 'financial conditions' including asset prices, credit availability, commodity prices (up 30% this year), and the dollar's value, marking a sharp departure from predecessor frameworks focused on whether rates were 'accommodative, neutral or restrictive'
• Balance sheet reduction plans remain stalled as other FOMC members resist quick action and the 10-year Treasury yield above 5% makes it inopportune to add supply to markets, with task forces expected to report early next year

Italian lender Banca IFIS replaced its CEO and is overhauling governance after a Bank of Italy audit conducted from January to June identified significant issues with anti-money laundering controls, digital technology, operational risks, and internal oversight. The bank's shares fell 7% on the news, and it faces potential additional capital requirements and two penalty proceedings.

• The Bank of Italy has 90 days to determine additional capital requirements for IFIS, which will have 45 days to respond with its observations
• Raffaele Zingone, a 20-year IFIS veteran and current chief commercial officer, immediately replaced Frederik Geertman as CEO
• IFIS is responding by reviewing credit procedures, hiring new staff, strengthening risk controls, and selling its bad loan operations with non-binding bids received and aiming to close the sale this year

The US Federal Reserve is preparing to raise asset thresholds that trigger stricter bank oversight, potentially proposing changes later this year that would adjust the current $700 billion threshold to around $960 billion and the $100 billion threshold to approximately $150 billion. The reindexing would account for inflation and economic growth since the thresholds were set in 2019, allowing banks like U.S. Bancorp, Capital One, PNC, and Truist more room to grow without incurring costly additional regulations.

• The proposal would lift the highest oversight threshold from $700 billion to roughly $960 billion and adjust lower thresholds from $100 billion to around $150 billion, based on nominal GDP indexing.
• Banks say crossing the $100 billion threshold currently requires major investments in compliance infrastructure costing tens of millions of dollars annually in additional staff, systems, and reporting capabilities.
• The changes could unlock a wave of mid-size bank consolidation, as lenders have completed just 33 acquisitions in the $50 billion to $700 billion asset range over the past decade, with only seven deals in the most recent year.

American businesses significantly increased orders for Chinese goods in the weeks before the Trump-Xi summit, according to a private survey of 1,296 Chinese companies conducted September 1-22. The uptick came as companies anticipated continued stability between the U.S. and China following the summit. Both countries agreed to extend their trade truce to January, suspending rare earth export controls and delaying threatened tariffs.

• U.S. orders to China rose on both monthly and yearly bases as businesses positioned for a friendlier summit outcome, though overall Chinese export orders remained below year-earlier levels
• The effective U.S. tariff rate on Chinese goods stands at around 23%, significantly higher than tariffs on other major U.S. trading partners
• Eurasia Group raised its odds of continued U.S.-China stability to the highest level since Trump returned to office, expecting both sides to maintain the fragile truce with near-term commitments

U.S. Treasury yields edged higher on Friday as a global bond selloff slowed, with the 10-year yield reaching 5.17% after hitting its highest level since June 2007. The rise follows hawkish Federal Reserve commentary and strong economic data, with markets pricing in a 71% chance of an October rate hike.

• The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.17% and the 30-year hit 5.463%, levels not seen since 2004, driven by Fed Governor Barr's comments on 'further policy adjustments' needed to control inflation
• Global bond markets experienced selling pressure with Japanese government bonds, U.K. gilts, and German bunds all hitting fresh highs before easing on Friday
• Traders are pricing in a nearly 71% probability of a Fed rate hike in October, while analysts suggest rate hike fears may be fully discounted at current levels

Two photonics leaders, Corning (GLW) and Marvell (MRVL), are experiencing selling pressure despite strong fundamentals and institutional buying. Both companies are key suppliers in AI infrastructure, with Corning providing fiber optics and Marvell producing semiconductors that convert electrical signals to optical signals for data centers. The current weakness presents a potential buying opportunity before the next potential rally.

• Corning (GLW) is down 40% from highs despite a $135 billion market cap and projected sales of $11.1 billion (2027) and $14.6 billion (2028), with institutional investors actively buying during the decline.
• Marvell (MRVL), valued at $240 billion, is expected to grow earnings per share from $1.66 (2025) to $4.60 (2028) as data centers increasingly adopt optical signal conversion technology.
• Both stocks have shown 'outlier inflows' from institutional investors over the past year and are included in MoneyFlows Frontiers indexes for Photonics (GLW) and AI (MRVL).

U.S.-Iran truce negotiations are reducing geopolitical risk premiums in crude oil markets as diplomats work to end a seven-month conflict that has restricted Iranian petroleum exports since February. However, ongoing Houthi missile attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure, including six missiles intercepted since Thursday targeting major processing facilities, continue to threaten supply stability and maintain elevated risk premiums.

• Hormuz Strait crude flows have nearly recovered to 6.5 million barrels per day in September through increased ship-to-ship transfers, though tanker freight costs have surged over $30 per barrel on some Gulf routes
• A phased approach to lifting U.S. sanctions on Iran could release significant crude and petroleum products back onto global markets, with negotiations currently underway in New York
• The loss of approximately 36 million tons of LNG from the Middle East has tightened natural gas markets globally, prompting buyers to shift to alternative suppliers in North America, West Africa, Australia, and Indonesia

Crypto exchange Bitget suffered a $352 million hack that the company suspects was conducted by North Korean hackers based on IP addresses linked to VPN services previously used by North Korean groups. The breach involved 19 unauthorized transfers from hot and warm wallets on Thursday, though cold wallets remained secure. Bitget says customer losses are fully covered by its User Protection Fund, which holds over $464 million.

• Investigators identified IP addresses linked to VPN services previously used by a North Korean hacking group, and the attack pattern resembled earlier operations attributed to North Korea
• The breach affected multiple cryptocurrencies including ether, XRP, USDT, USDC, Avalanche and BNB across various blockchain networks, with withdrawals suspended but deposits and trading continuing normally
• Bitget's User Protection Fund with more than $464 million will fully cover the losses, and the company expects to restore withdrawals within hours or days rather than weeks

Lee Reiber, CEO of Virginia-based Oxygen Forensics, and Russian national Oleg Davydov were arrested and charged with conspiracy to commit wire fraud for allegedly concealing the company's Russian ownership from U.S. government agencies. The software firm's customers included the Secret Service, Homeland Security Investigations, and the Department of War, raising national security concerns about foreign control of forensics tools used by U.S. law enforcement.

• Prosecutors allege Davydov and four other Russian nationals secretly controlled Oxygen Forensics through a Cyprus holding company, while the firm falsely claimed to be independently owned and U.S.-operated to secure government contracts
• The company obtained a five-year, $12 million Secret Service contract in 2024 after Reiber allegedly signed false certifications in December 2022 and October 2023 denying any external ownership
• The charges closely mirror allegations made by former employee Max Weissberg in a February YouTube video, prompting Oxygen to sue him for defamation in August, weeks before the criminal case became public