General Market News

The UN's International Maritime Organization rejected transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz after President Trump demanded ships pay the U.S. 20% of cargo value for Navy protection. The IMO stated there is no legal basis for mandatory tolls in international straits. Iran had also demanded tolls but agreed to suspend them for 60 days under an interim deal with the U.S.

• Trump ordered the U.S. Navy to reimpose a blockade on Iranian ships while demanding 20% of cargo value as reimbursement for protecting other vessels through Hormuz
• International maritime law experts confirm tolls violate the Convention on the International Maritime Organization and treaties guaranteeing unimpeded transit rights through international straits
• Security tensions have escalated with Iran attacking commercial ships, demanding use of northern routes through its waters, while the U.S. Navy escorts vessels through a southern corridor along Oman's coast

The probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike at its July 29 meeting has surged, with CME's FedWatch tool now showing 46.5% odds (up from 34% Sunday) and prediction platform Kalshi at 36% (up from under 10% earlier this month). The increased likelihood stems from Trump's announcement of reinstating a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and imposing a 20% toll on cargo through the Strait of Hormuz, which sent oil prices jumping over 5% past $75 per barrel.

• Oil prices rose sharply in response to renewed Iran-U.S. tensions, with WTI crude jumping 5.99% to cross $75 per barrel, raising inflation concerns beyond what June CPI data may show
• Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated the central bank 'waited too long' to raise rates amid rising inflation, though he cautioned against overcorrecting with overly aggressive hikes
• Barclays analysis warns that inflation pressures extend beyond energy prices, with lack of demand destruction from elevated prices exacerbating concerns and suggesting data prints 'for the next few months, are not going to look good'

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller cautioned against prematurely raising interest rates despite elevated inflation, warning the Fed should avoid 'fighting the last war' by overreacting to its 2021 mistake of waiting too long to act. He cited new inflation drivers including AI-related demand and tariffs, while noting that well-anchored expectations and a strong labor market provide some buffer as the Fed awaits more data.

• Waller identified artificial intelligence spillovers, 2025 tariffs, and Middle East energy price impacts as current inflation drivers beyond traditional causes
• June CPI data expected to show headline inflation declining to 3.8% from 4.2% and core inflation to 2.8% from 2.9%, though Waller said he needs 'several months' of lower readings before feeling confident
• Markets price in 39% chance of a rate hike at the Fed's late July meeting, as Waller emphasized both avoiding premature tightening and not repeating 2021's delayed response

Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped approximately 60% amid escalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran over control of shipping routes. Only 14 ships transited the strait on Sunday compared to 37 the previous week, down from over 100 daily before hostilities began on February 28. Iran is attacking vessels using a U.S.-protected southern route and demanding ships use northern lanes through Iranian waters.

• Traffic through the U.S.-protected southern corridor along Oman's coast has effectively collapsed after repeated Iranian attacks on commercial vessels, with ships increasingly using the northern route through Iranian territorial waters
• The U.S. has launched retaliatory strikes against Iran for the ship attacks, while Tehran has responded by firing on U.S. allies in the Gulf region
• President Trump announced plans to reimpose a naval blockade against Iran and demand ships pay the U.S. 20% of cargo value for protection services

Shein Executive Chairman Donald Tang will step down to an advisory role as the fast-fashion retailer nears completion of its Hong Kong IPO after receiving Chinese regulatory approval. Tang, a Chinese-American billionaire, has served as the company's Western proxy for three years, navigating failed IPO attempts in New York and London. Founder Sky Xu is expected to lead the investor roadshow ahead of the listing.

• Tang was brought in by Sequoia Capital China's Neil Shen to pursue a U.S. listing, but pivoted to London and ultimately Hong Kong after regulatory obstacles and political scrutiny over 'de minimis' customs waivers and forced labor allegations
• The executive chairman faced reputational challenges including a scandal in November when French regulators found child-resembling sex dolls on Shein's marketplace, leading to government crackdown and the closure of the company's Paris store experiment
• There is no fixed timetable for Tang's transition to senior adviser, and it remains unclear whether founder Xu will assume the public-facing role or bring in another external leader

Wall Street enters a critical week with major bank earnings (JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo) reporting Tuesday, alongside key tech companies like ASML, TSMC, and Netflix. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before Congress while crucial inflation data (CPI and PPI) will shape expectations for the Fed's next policy move, all amid rising Middle East tensions affecting oil prices.

• Major banks report Tuesday offering insights on loan growth, investment banking activity, and consumer health under higher interest rates
• June CPI (Tuesday) and PPI (Wednesday) data expected to show cooling inflation as lower gasoline prices offset other pressures, according to Wells Fargo economists
• Geopolitical tensions between U.S. and Iran have pushed oil prices higher and slowed Strait of Hormuz shipping, though Brent crude remains below $80 per barrel

Energy Transfer LP (ET) has become a trending stock on Zacks.com, driven by investor interest in its business prospects. The company currently holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and a Value Style Score of A, indicating it trades at a discount to peers. For the current fiscal year, ET is expected to deliver earnings of $1.43 per share, representing an 18.2% increase year-over-year.

• Revenue is projected to surge 41.7% for the current fiscal year to $121.19 billion, with next year's consensus at $126.38 billion (+4.3% growth)
• The stock has consistently beaten consensus estimates, surpassing EPS and revenue expectations multiple times over the last four quarters
• ET's Value Style Score of A suggests the stock is trading at a discount relative to peers, though the Zacks Rank #3 indicates near-term performance may align with the broader market

US markets opened mixed on Monday as the Dow rose 0.23% while the S&P 500 fell 0.17% and Nasdaq dropped 0.61%, pressured by semiconductor selloffs and rising oil prices from US-Iran tensions. Investors are preparing for major bank earnings reports and key inflation data this week that could influence Federal Reserve policy.

• Oil prices jumped roughly 3% (WTI to $73.83, Brent to $78.52) after Iran claimed to close the Strait of Hormuz, though President Trump disputed this, raising inflation concerns ahead of Tuesday's CPI report
• Semiconductor stocks fell sharply following SK Hynix's Nasdaq debut, with Micron down 6.4% and Western Digital, Seagate falling 4-7%, spreading weakness across the chip sector
• Major banks including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley report earnings this week, with S&P 500 companies expected to post 23.7% profit growth for Q2 amid elevated market expectations

Ferguson Enterprises agreed to acquire FloWorks from private equity firm Wynnchurch Capital for approximately $1.6 billion in cash. The deal strengthens Ferguson's industrial flow-control products and services portfolio, providing greater exposure to energy, chemicals, and manufacturing sectors. The transaction is expected to close in the third quarter of 2026, pending regulatory approvals.

• The acquisition diversifies Ferguson's revenue streams toward industrial maintenance, repair, and operations products, which have shown more resilience than construction-related spending
• FloWorks distributes highly engineered flow-control products to industrial customers in energy, chemicals, and manufacturing sectors
• The $1.6 billion all-cash transaction is subject to customary conditions and regulatory approvals, with expected closing in Q3 2026

Global smartphone shipments fell 11% in Q2 to their lowest level since 2013, driven by a memory chip shortage that increased handset prices and weakened demand. Apple gained market share with a 3% shipment increase, while competitors like Samsung, Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo struggled with declining sales. The memory shortage is expected to persist into 2027, with annual shipments projected to decline 14% this year.

• Memory chip prices rose as suppliers prioritized AI data center customers over consumer electronics, forcing manufacturers to raise prices especially on entry- and mid-range devices
• Samsung reclaimed the top market position with 24% share, while Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo experienced the steepest declines due to greater exposure to lower-priced device segments
• Counterpoint Research forecasts global smartphone shipments will decline approximately 14% for the full year, with the memory shortage likely continuing into 2027

US stock futures fell on Monday, with Nasdaq futures down 1.0%, as oil prices surged 3.5% to $73.94 per barrel following fresh US military strikes on Iran targeting its capabilities in the Strait of Hormuz. The escalation in US-Iran tensions raised concerns about energy costs ahead of Tuesday's key US inflation report and Fed chair testimony.

• WTI crude rose 3.5% to $73.94 a barrel, briefly trading above $75, after the US confirmed military strikes aimed at reducing Iran's ability to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz
• Asian technology stocks were hit hard, with South Korea's Kospi plunging nearly 9% and SK Hynix down 13%, while Japan's Nikkei lost 1.9%
• Investors await Tuesday's US inflation report and Fed chair Kevin Warsh's testimony to Congress, with higher energy prices raising doubts about policymakers' comfort with inflation data

President Trump announced the U.S. will take control of the Strait of Hormuz and charge nations for protecting the vital waterway, following Iran's blockade that has disrupted global oil supplies and driven up energy prices. The move comes amid escalating U.S.-Iranian military exchanges over the weekend, undermining a recent interim agreement to reopen the strait and pursue negotiations.

• Trump stated the U.S. will act as 'guardian' of the strait and charge wealthy nations for protection services, citing Iran's repeated violations of agreements
• Iran's Revolutionary Guards closed the strait Saturday and said passage remains suspended until 'stability and calm' are restored, warning that continued U.S. interference could lead to greater incidents in the global oil and gas sector
• Heavy missile and drone attacks were exchanged over the weekend, with Tehran striking U.S. military facilities across the Gulf, marking a sharp escalation that casts doubt on last month's interim agreement

US stock indices initially plunged on July 13, 2026, following escalating Middle East conflict but stabilized before New York trading opened. The Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones 30, and S&P 500 all showed recovery signs with technical support levels holding. Analysts view the pullback as normal consolidation within a longer-term uptrend rather than a reversal.

• Nasdaq 100 found support above its 50-day EMA with a floor at 28,500, signaling buyers remain engaged despite initial weakness
• Dow Jones 30 flipped positive before US session open, targeting 53,000 with strong support at 52,000
• S&P 500 is approaching the psychologically significant 7,600 level with short-term floor support at 7,500

HCLTech, India's third-largest IT services firm, reported first-quarter revenue that exceeded analyst expectations, driven by increased technology spending from financial services clients. The company posted consolidated revenue of 345.79 billion rupees ($3.62 billion) for the April-June quarter, representing a 13.94% year-on-year increase.

• First-quarter revenue reached 345.79 billion rupees ($3.62 billion), beating the analyst consensus estimate of 343.5 billion rupees
• Revenue grew 13.94% year-on-year, fueled by higher technology spending from financial services sector clients
• HCLTech is positioned as India's third-largest IT services exporter in the competitive software services market

Ivory Coast cocoa farmers report that while below-average rainfall last week helped dry waterlogged soil from late June flooding, insufficient sunshine and overcast conditions threaten the development of the September-to-February main crop. As the world's top cocoa producer moves through its rainy season, farmers need more sunny spells to prevent crop diseases and ensure proper flower development into cocoa pods.

• Rainfall across key cocoa regions fell 19-23.6mm below five-year averages last week, but persistent cloud cover and cold winds since Friday are preventing adequate sunshine needed for crop development
• Farmers expect clearer indications of main crop size by late August, with flowering continuing until September; crop yield depends on how many flowers survive to become pods
• Current mid-crop supply from the bush is scarce as the season nears its end, with temperatures ranging between 24.4-28.1 degrees Celsius across cocoa-growing regions

Barclays warns that AI investment has replaced oil as the primary inflation risk in the US, raising its core PCE inflation forecast to 3.3% by end-2026 from 2.8% earlier. The bank attributes rising prices to AI-driven demand for data centers, which has increased memory chip and electricity costs, complicating the Federal Reserve's efforts to control inflation even as oil prices have stabilized.

• Computer software and accessories prices have surged 17% since December, after previously being in deflation, due to rising memory chip costs from data center demand
• AI-related categories have added approximately 20 basis points to core PCE inflation and 25 basis points to headline PCE in recent months
• Barclays warns rates will 'stay higher for longer' and the Fed may need to hike if non-energy inflation doesn't decline notably in coming months

U.S. stock futures pointed lower Monday as investors prepared for a busy week of earnings reports and economic data. Tech stocks including Nvidia and Micron fell premarket ahead of SK Hynix's first full week of U.S. trading, while oil prices rose over 3% following renewed military conflicts between the U.S. and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz.

• Major earnings reports scheduled this week include JPMorgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup on Tuesday, plus Netflix and UnitedHealth on Thursday
• Apple filed a lawsuit against OpenAI alleging the ChatGPT maker stole trade secrets through hundreds of former Apple employees to launch competing AI hardware products
• June Consumer Price Index data releases Tuesday morning when Fed Chair Warsh testifies before Congress about the economy, with the 10-year Treasury yield near its highest levels since May at 4.58%

Nasdaq 100 futures fell 290 points (0.9%) on Monday as semiconductor stocks tumbled following Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which sent oil prices higher and revived inflation concerns. Memory-chip stocks led the decline, with Micron down 5.2% and SK Hynix ADRs plunging 9.3%, while investors await key CPI data, bank earnings, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first congressional testimony.

• Memory-chip stocks were hardest hit: Micron fell 5.2%, Western Digital lost 6%, Seagate dropped 4.8%, and SK Hynix ADRs plunged 9.3% after its Friday Nasdaq debut
• Oil spike from Strait of Hormuz closure threatens the Fed's inflation fight and momentum trades in tech, with markets pricing at least one 25-basis-point rate hike by year-end
• Critical tests ahead include Tuesday's CPI report, major bank earnings from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, plus Warsh's first monetary policy testimony before Congress

Over 200 researchers and economists, including 15 Nobel laureates and staff from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google, issued a joint statement calling for urgent government action to address AI's economic impact. They warn that AI could drive an economic transformation larger than the Industrial Revolution but in a 'vastly shorter' timeframe, potentially giving societies only a few years to adapt compared to the decades provided by previous technological shifts.

• The statement emphasizes that while steam, electricity, and computers gave societies decades to adapt, AI may provide only a few years for adjustment
• Signatories include OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar, Google DeepMind Chief Scientist Jeff Dean, Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark, and Nobel laureates Michael Spence, Daron Acemoglu, and Simon Johnson
• The initiative calls for deeper research on AI's economic impacts and the creation of policies and institutions to ensure societal benefits while navigating risks like large-scale job displacement

The U.S. Supreme Court delivered a major victory to Bayer in June 2026 by limiting thousands of Roundup cancer lawsuits, part of a broader trend favoring pesticide manufacturers under the Trump administration. The pesticide industry has secured multiple regulatory wins in recent months, including re-approval of dicamba and a favorable biological opinion on atrazine, disappointing environmental and public health groups who note a significant shift from the previous administration's more cautious approach.

• The Supreme Court ruled 7-2 that plaintiffs cannot sue Bayer under state laws for failing to warn about glyphosate cancer risks, potentially ending consolidated litigation involving nearly 4,000 lawsuits that threatened the product's viability
• Dicamba was re-approved by the EPA in February 2026 for two growing seasons with new restrictions after a 2024 court ruling had vacated its registration and prevented use in 2025
• The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service concluded in April 2026 that atrazine does not pose extinction risk to studied species, reversing the EPA's 2021 finding that it would adversely affect over 1,000 protected species, despite WHO classifying it as 'probably carcinogenic to humans' in 2025