General Market News

President Trump announced he is replacing a proposed 20% fee on commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz with trade and investment deals from Gulf states into the United States. The decision follows heightened tensions with Iran over control of the vital waterway, with Trump maintaining a full blockade only on Iranian shipping while keeping the strait open to all other traffic.

• Trump scrapped the 20% reimbursement fee after 'highly productive conversations' with Middle East leadership, who agreed to make 'massive investments' in the U.S. at 'record amounts'
• The U.S. will maintain a full blockade on ships traveling to or from Iranian ports or carrying Iranian cargo, while keeping the Strait of Hormuz open to all other commercial traffic
• The policy shift comes amid escalating U.S.-Iran military exchanges over the weekend and follows Iran's claims of sovereign authority over the historically international waterway

U.S. stocks rallied on softer-than-expected June CPI data, with the Nasdaq Composite leading gains up 0.70% driven by chip stocks rebounding from Monday's selloff. The report reduced odds of a July Fed rate hike from 42% to 17%, benefiting tech and financials, though the Dow lagged due to IBM's sharp decline on weak earnings guidance.

• Nasdaq rose 0.70% to 26,054.98, S&P 500 gained 0.20% to 7,530.54, while Dow fell 0.19% to 52,399.39 as IBM dragged on the blue-chip index
• June CPI data came in softer than expected on both headline and core measures, causing Treasury yields to drop and nearly eliminating market expectations for a July rate hike
• Semiconductor stocks rallied including Micron (+5.26%), Applied Materials, and Lam Research, while Goldman Sachs surged on strong earnings and crude oil pulled back after Trump reversed a 20% Hormuz cargo fee

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi stated that Iraq needs a fair share within OPEC during a visit to Washington on July 14, 2026. He is seeking major U.S. investment in Iraq's oil, gas, and power sectors after the Iran war significantly damaged crude output and state finances. Al-Zaidi cited over $400 billion in damage from past conflicts, including with the Islamic State, as justification for increased production quotas.

• Iraq seeking U.S. investment in energy sectors after Iran war devastated crude output and government revenues
• Prime Minister claims Iraq suffered over $400 billion in damage from Islamic State conflicts, with displaced citizens still living in camps
• Iraq, as a founding OPEC member, is requesting a larger production quota to support reconstruction and economic recovery

A U.S. Commerce Department official overseeing export controls announced that regulatory action on artificial intelligence and semiconductors is forthcoming. Jeffrey Kessler stated that the Trump administration will maintain the Biden-era AI diffusion rule, which established a global framework limiting AI chip shipments to certain countries.

• The Trump administration will not replace the existing Biden-era AI diffusion rule that caps chip shipments
• The rule creates a global regime restricting the number of AI chips certain countries can receive
• Jeffrey Kessler, who oversees export controls at Commerce, indicated new regulatory measures are coming

Reza Zarrab, a key witness in the U.S. criminal case against Turkey's Halkbank over alleged Iran sanctions evasion, was sentenced to time served and avoided prison. The charges against Halkbank were dismissed in March 2025 after a deal with the Justice Department requiring the bank to hire a compliance monitor. The resolution ends a longstanding irritant in U.S.-Turkey relations.

• Zarrab, a Turkish-Iranian gold trader, pleaded guilty in 2017 to conspiring to evade U.S. sanctions and testified against former Halkbank official Mehmet Hakan Atilla, who was convicted
• Halkbank was charged in 2019 with secretly transferring $20 billion of restricted Iranian funds and converting oil revenue into gold and cash to benefit Iranian interests
• The Justice Department said the deal arose from Turkey's role in securing a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, helping improve U.S.-Turkey relations under President Trump

UK banks' limited access to Anthropic's Mythos AI model has prompted a government adviser to call for Britain to develop its own AI infrastructure and capabilities. While U.S. banks like JPMorgan received access to the advanced cybersecurity AI in April, most British banks remain without access or a clear timeline. The issue highlights Britain's reliance on U.S. tech providers and has led to new policy recommendations aimed at boosting domestic AI adoption.

• Mythos is considered the most advanced AI model for identifying cybersecurity vulnerabilities, but only UK operations of U.S. lenders have gained access so far
• Government adviser Harriet Rees warns that 'time is of the essence' and Britain doesn't have 'two years' to address AI sovereignty issues
• New recommendations include bringing AI firms under financial regulatory oversight as 'critical' providers and building relationships with non-U.S. AI companies in China and France

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh testified before the House Financial Services Committee, declaring the central bank has 'no tolerance' for persistently elevated inflation in his first testimony as Fed chief. Warsh explained that inflation concerns influenced the Fed's decision to hold interest rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75% at the June meeting, while emphasizing the Fed's independence from political pressure.

• The Fed maintained its benchmark federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75% at its June meeting, citing inflation concerns as a key factor in the decision
• Warsh emphasized Fed independence after being asked about potential presidential interference, noting the Supreme Court recently affirmed the central bank's independent status
• The Fed chair stated the goal is to eliminate politics from monetary policy decisions, positioning the institution to make inflation 'a thing of the past' if policy is executed correctly

Nigeria's Dangote Petroleum Refinery has shifted to pricing fuel products in U.S. dollars for the domestic market, abandoning the government's naira-for-crude programme. The change follows difficulties securing sufficient crude supply under the local currency scheme, with the refinery receiving only 7 cargoes monthly versus the 13-15 needed. This move could increase dollar demand among fuel marketers and make domestic prices more vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations.

• Dangote set dollar prices at $0.779/liter for petrol, $1.087/liter for diesel, and $0.942/liter for aviation fuel at Africa's largest refinery with 700,000 barrels per day capacity
• The naira-for-crude programme launched in October 2024 aimed to reduce foreign exchange pressure, but limited crude allocations forced Dangote to import additional supply at international prices
• The refinery had been absorbing currency mismatches by selling in naira while sourcing crude in dollars, but inadequate supply under the government scheme made this arrangement unviable

Tech investor Chamath Palihapitiya warned that untracked AI token spending could negatively impact companies' earnings, as C-suite executives may be unaware of the extent of AI usage within their organizations. He predicts some companies will experience unexpected earnings misses due to hidden AI costs, joining other tech leaders cautioning that the 'tokenmaxxing' era is ending.

• Palihapitiya believes CEOs and CFOs are largely unaware of how much 'tokenmaxxing' (excessive AI usage) is occurring internally, which could lead to surprise earnings shortfalls
• His own AI company 8090's spending is trending toward over $10 million annually, which he described as 'very scary' for a small startup without meaningful ROI
• The concerns echo warnings from Palantir CEO Alex Karp, who recently criticized OpenAI and Anthropic's token-based pricing models as problematic for enterprise customers

Major Wall Street banks reported strong second-quarter 2026 earnings driven by surging investment banking fees and robust trading revenue. JPMorgan posted its highest investment banking fees since 2021, while Citigroup's profit jumped 45% to its highest quarterly revenue in a decade. However, bank executives warned of economic risks including geopolitical tensions, sticky inflation, and elevated asset prices.

• Global investment banking revenue reached $61.4 billion in the first half of 2026, up 24% year-over-year, fueled by mega IPOs like Cerebras' $6.4 billion offering and Alphabet's $85 billion deal
• Trading desks benefited from heightened market volatility driven by geopolitical conflict, AI disruption, and Iran-related tensions across asset classes
• JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon cautioned that 'several risks are shifting below the surface like tectonic plates' including wars, fiscal deficits, and elevated asset prices that 'could cause meaningful disruptions'

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh testified before Congress for the first time, emphasizing the central bank has 'no tolerance' for elevated inflation and committing to hawkish monetary policy focused on controlling price pressures. His testimony came as June CPI data showed continued inflation concerns, though market expectations lean toward holding rates steady rather than raising them at the Fed's upcoming meeting.

• Warsh maintained a hawkish stance focused on fighting inflation rather than signaling rate cuts, stating the Fed's top objective is getting monetary policy right to end the five-year inflation surge
• June Consumer Price Index data released the same morning showed persistent inflation since 2020, with markets betting the Fed will hold rates steady at its upcoming meeting rather than raise them
• Warsh highlighted that the labor market remains 'broadly stable' and noted AI-driven business investment as the 'most striking feature' of the economy, presenting new challenges for policymakers

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh received unexpected relief as June CPI posted its steepest monthly drop since April 2020, falling 0.4% with flat core inflation. However, the reprieve may be short-lived as renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities have already pushed oil prices back above $80 per barrel, threatening to reignite inflation pressures that had eased when energy prices plunged 5.7% in June.

• June CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month with core inflation unchanged, driven by a 9.7% drop in gasoline prices during a temporary U.S.-Iran truce
• Oil prices have surged back above $80 (WTI) and $86 (Brent) following resumed conflict at the Strait of Hormuz, potentially erasing June's inflation gains
• The cooling inflation data strengthens the Fed's case to hold rates steady in 2026, though policymakers remain 'one geopolitical headline away' from facing renewed rate hike pressure

Inflation cooled to 3.5% in June, marking the largest monthly drop since April 2020, driven primarily by declining energy prices. The Consumer Price Index fell 0.4% on a monthly basis, exceeding expectations of a 0.2% decline. However, core CPI remained at 2.6%, still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, potentially limiting prospects for near-term interest rate cuts.

• Monthly inflation declined 0.4%, surpassing expectations of a 0.2% drop and representing the biggest monthly decrease since April 2020
• Core CPI, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge excluding food and energy, remained elevated at 2.6%, well above the central bank's 2% goal
• Energy price declines drove the slowdown, with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz contributing to lower oil and gasoline prices

US stock indices are trading in a tight range as of July 14, 2026, with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East creating market uncertainty. The Dow Jones 30 is testing support at the 52,000 level, while the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 remain near all-time highs despite choppy trading conditions.

• The Dow Jones 30 found support at 52,000 after an early drop, with the analyst watching this level closely as it has historical market significance
• The Nasdaq 100 bounced off its 50-day exponential moving average, which has recently acted as a trend line during the consolidation phase
• Markets appear stable despite escalating US-Iran conflicts, with the S&P 500 holding above 7,500 support as traders await direction near record highs

Consumer inflation cooled more than expected in June 2026, with the Consumer Price Index declining 0.4% monthly and rising 3.5% annually, below economist forecasts. The decline, the largest since April 2020, was driven primarily by falling gas prices following earlier surges caused by the Iran war's impact on energy costs. Core inflation remained flat month-over-month at 2.6% annually, also below expectations.

• CPI fell 0.4% monthly (vs. expected -0.1%) and rose 3.5% annually (vs. expected 3.8%), marking the largest monthly decline since April 2020
• Core inflation (excluding food and energy) was unchanged monthly and up 2.6% annually, both lower than the 0.2% and 2.8% estimates
• The cooling follows May's elevated readings of 0.5% monthly and 4.2% annual increases, with energy price declines reversing prior Iran war-related surges

U.S. inflation cooled to 3.5% in June from a three-year high of 4.2% in May, temporarily aided by a brief U.S.-Iran ceasefire that lowered energy prices. However, renewed strikes between the countries have sent oil prices climbing again, with gas prices up 70 cents per gallon year-over-year. The Federal Reserve will consider these inflation pressures alongside labor market conditions at its upcoming July meeting.

• Brent crude oil hit $80 per barrel after falling to $67 earlier in July, driven by renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities and Trump's announcement of a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil and gas passes
• Core inflation (excluding food and energy) decreased to 2.6%, but headline inflation remains well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, while the labor market added an average of 111,000 jobs monthly from April to June
• A Harris-Guardian poll shows 95% of Americans believe the country is in an affordability crisis, with industries like airlines passing on 60% of extra fuel costs to consumers through higher airfares

U.S. consumer prices increased 3.5% year-over-year in June, coming in below the expected 3.8% rise according to Dow Jones consensus estimates. The slower-than-anticipated inflation was driven by easing energy prices, suggesting potential relief in inflationary pressures.

• The Consumer Price Index rose 3.5% annually in June, beating expectations of a 3.8% increase
• Energy prices eased during the month, contributing to the lower-than-expected inflation reading
• The softer inflation data may influence Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions and market sentiment

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh pledged to defeat the inflation that has troubled the central bank for five years, promising to 'get monetary policy right' in his testimony to Congress. He expressed confidence that the inflation surge will become 'a thing of the past' while highlighting the economy's solid performance and the accelerating AI investment boom as key economic drivers.

• Warsh emphasized the Fed Committee has 'no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation' and called recent price surges an 'undue burden' on American households and businesses
• The chairman cited AI-related business investment, particularly data center construction and related equipment, as 'the most striking feature' of the current economy with a 'rapid pace that appears to be accelerating'
• Warsh expects the AI productivity boom will prove disinflationary, though this premise has been challenged by some economists and fellow Fed policymakers

Ukrainian drones struck Russia's Salavat petrochemical complex in the Urals region as part of Ukraine's intensified campaign targeting Russian energy infrastructure. The facility, which accounts for approximately 2.7% of Russia's oil refining capacity, sustained limited damage to utility infrastructure but key production units were spared. Local authorities expect the plant to resume normal operations within days.

• The Salavat complex processed 7.2 million tons of oil in 2024, producing 2.5 million tons of diesel, 1.5 million tons of gasoline, and 700,000 tons of fuel oil
• Damage was confined to pipe racks and electrical cables, with key production facilities remaining intact according to regional governor Radiy Khabirov
• The Gazprom-owned facility has been targeted by Ukrainian drones multiple times over the past year as part of Ukraine's strategy to disrupt Russia's war capabilities

U.S. stock futures showed mixed performance Tuesday morning as investors awaited the June CPI report and new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Congressional testimony. The S&P 500 is forming a triangle pattern signaling indecision, while rising oil prices above $80 per barrel and Treasury yields climbing to 4.62% are raising concerns that inflation may remain elevated longer than expected.

• Dow futures fell 196 points (-0.37%) and S&P 500 futures dropped 0.10%, while Nasdaq futures gained 0.42% as semiconductor stocks bounced from Monday's selloff
• June CPI is expected to show annual inflation declining to 3.8% from 4.2% in May, but forecasts were made before crude oil surged above $80 per barrel this week
• Technical analysis shows the S&P 500 forming a compressing triangle pattern indicating trader indecision, with potential for a breakout to new highs or a breakdown toward the 200-day moving average at 7,099