General Market News

Tyler Goodspeed, former acting chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers under Trump, argues in his new book that recessions are 'fundamentally unforecastable' because they result from unpredictable shocks rather than cyclical patterns. He emphasizes that energy price shocks have been a major driver of many U.S. recessions over centuries, including the 2008-2009 financial crisis when oil prices hit $150 per barrel. Goodspeed, now chief economist at ExxonMobil, suggests governments cannot prevent recessions but can avoid making them worse through contractionary policy.

• Despite forecasting tools like the yield curve, historical testing shows 'a lot of false positives and false negatives' in recession predictions, making them unreliable.
• Energy price shocks have contributed to numerous recessions, with oil reaching its highest inflation-adjusted price in June 2008 ($150/barrel), when American households spent $2,000 more annually on energy.
• Government intervention has not reduced recession duration or depth over time, but contractionary fiscal and monetary policy during downturns can significantly worsen outcomes, as seen in the Great Depression.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated the central bank is closely monitoring the private credit sector for potential risks but currently sees no signs of systemic threats to the financial system. While acknowledging some participants may lose money, Powell emphasized regulators do not see connections that could cause broader contagion to the banking system.

• Powell noted private credit is 'a relatively small part of a very large asset pool' that regulators are watching 'super carefully'
• The Fed is monitoring connections to the banking system and potential contagion risks but does not currently see such linkages
• Regulators are gathering information from private credit organizations and banks to track exposure levels across the financial system

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that inflation expectations remain well-anchored despite rising energy prices and that the current turmoil in the $3 trillion private credit sector does not appear to pose systemic risks. Speaking at Harvard University near the end of his term, Powell indicated the current interest rate target of 3.5%-3.75% is appropriate as the Fed monitors ongoing economic developments including energy market volatility and tariff impacts.

• Powell believes the Fed should look beyond short-term energy price fluctuations and maintain focus on stable prices and low unemployment, with current rates at 3.5%-3.75% being 'a good place' to remain
• The private credit sector is experiencing rising defaults and investor withdrawals, but Powell sees no connections to the banking system or signs of contagion that would indicate a broader systemic crisis
• Powell declined to comment on his designated successor Kevin Warsh's stated preference for higher interest rates than current levels

Gold prices rose 1% to $4,570 per ounce and oil climbed 2.6% to $102.21 per barrel on Monday amid Iran war uncertainty. President Trump threatened to destroy Iran's oil infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz isn't reopened, while also indicating negotiations with a 'new regime' are underway. Markets are shifting focus from inflation concerns to economic growth worries as expectations build for extended high oil prices.

• Treasury yields fell 8 basis points to 4.36% after surging from 3.96% pre-war to 4.44% Friday, signaling market focus shifting from inflation to growth concerns with 'stagflationary implications'
• Trump issued ultimatum threatening to obliterate Iran's electric plants, oil wells, and Kharg Island (Iran's oil export terminal handling 2+ million barrels daily) if Strait of Hormuz remains closed
• Gold's traditional negative correlation with real yields may be returning, with lower Treasury yields potentially supporting gold's momentum after recent decline from $5,400 to $4,400 per ounce

Finance leaders from the G7 nations held a teleconference on March 30 to coordinate action on energy market volatility, committing to take 'all necessary measures' to preserve stability and limit economic spillovers. The International Energy Agency's 32 members agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from strategic stockpiles amid concerns over supply disruptions and rising crude prices. G7 central banks reaffirmed their commitment to price stability through data-based monetary policy as higher energy prices threaten to drive inflation.

• The IEA coordinated a record release of 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves to combat surging global crude prices, which were on track for a record monthly rise
• Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned that 'the likelihood of oil price rises and supply concerns affecting markets and economic growth has increased'
• The G7 called on countries to 'refrain from imposing unjustified export restrictions' on oil, gas and related products while supporting efforts to keep energy supplies flowing

NASA is preparing to launch the Artemis II mission on Wednesday, April 2, marking the first human spaceflight beyond Earth orbit in over 53 years with a four-person crew on a 10-day lunar journey. Separately, Citi initiated coverage on satellite and spacecraft component provider Voyager Technologies with a buy rating, citing exposure to aerospace and defense megatrends. Space stocks traded lower on Monday as the launch countdown began.

• Artemis II launches Wednesday at 6:24 p.m. ET from Kennedy Space Center using the SLS rocket and Orion spacecraft, with favorable weather conditions reported
• NASA plans subsequent Artemis missions through 2028, including Artemis IV targeting the first lunar landing in early 2028 and annual missions thereafter
• Citi analyst rated Voyager Technologies a buy, expecting new business wins in missiles and space sectors to drive 'significant upside' to estimates; space stocks including Voyager, Rocket Lab, and Intuitive Machines declined 3% or more

Japan's industry minister called on G7 nations and the IEA to prepare additional measures, including coordinated oil stockpile releases, to stabilize energy markets amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The war on Iran launched by the U.S. and Israel on February 28 has caused major disruptions to global energy supplies, particularly affecting Asia with soaring prices and fuel shortages.

• The conflict has created the 'biggest-ever disruption to global energy' and is severely impacting Asian supply chains with fuel and raw material shortages
• G7 urged countries to avoid imposing unjustified export restrictions on hydrocarbons following the meeting with finance and energy ministers
• Japan provided emergency fuel support to the Philippines, delivering 142,000 barrels of diesel on March 26 to help maintain regional supply chains

US stock markets opened mixed on Monday, March 30, 2026, with the Dow rising 0.4% while the Nasdaq turned slightly negative after President Trump announced 'serious discussions' with Iran regarding the ongoing Middle East conflict. Markets are entering a holiday-shortened week with Good Friday closures, heavy economic data including March jobs report, and continued geopolitical uncertainty as the conflict enters its fifth week.

• All three major indices suffered losses of 2.8% to 5.25% last week, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow now down 7.5-7.9% from recent highs after four weeks of Middle East conflict
• March nonfarm payrolls data will be released Good Friday despite market closure, with economists expecting around 56,000 jobs added and unemployment near 4.4-4.5%; retail sales data Tuesday is seen as particularly important
• Oil prices continued climbing with WTI crude up 1.7% to $101.30/barrel as Trump threatened to 'obliterate' Iranian infrastructure if deal talks fail, while also suggesting possible ground operations to seize oil facilities

Billionaire investor Bill Ackman stated that current market conditions present one of the best opportunities in years to buy high-quality stocks at deeply discounted prices. His bullish stance comes amid market volatility driven by rising energy prices, inflation concerns, and geopolitical tensions. Ackman singled out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as 'stupidly cheap' with potential for outsized returns.

• Pershing Square Holdings is down 19% year-to-date as of the reported date, reflecting broader market weakness
• Ackman specifically highlighted U.S. mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as offering asymmetric return potential at current valuations
• The firm recently listed on the New York Stock Exchange under ticker 'PS', adopting a permanent capital structure similar to Berkshire Hathaway's model

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran advocated for cutting interest rates by approximately one percentage point over the course of a year, arguing that policymakers should ignore the current energy price spike unless it triggers sustained inflation. He maintains that inflation expectations remain well-anchored despite oil prices surpassing $100 per barrel and gasoline rising by more than $1 per gallon.

• Miran believes the Fed could lower rates by 'about a point' gradually over a year, while the current fed funds rate sits at 3.5%-3.75%
• He has dissented at every Fed meeting he's attended since September 2025, consistently pushing for rate cuts
• Market pricing currently implies no rate moves in either direction before year-end, despite Miran's advocacy for easing policy

US stocks rebounded on Monday with the Dow Jones up 333 points (0.74%) as investors assessed Middle East conflict developments and Trump's comments on Iran negotiations. The recovery follows the indexes' fifth consecutive weekly decline, their longest losing streak in nearly four years, amid geopolitical tensions and surging oil prices that have reignited inflation concerns.

• Oil price surge led energy stocks higher but revived inflation fears, with markets now pricing in zero Fed rate cuts for 2025 compared to expectations of two cuts before the conflict
• The Dow Jones entered correction territory last week, closing more than 10% below its record high, while the Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 also fell into correction
• Trump warned Iran must reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face US attacks on energy infrastructure, though indicated 'serious discussions' were underway with a 'more reasonable regime'

Stock futures rose to start a holiday-shortened week after major indexes posted their fifth consecutive week of losses, with the Dow and Nasdaq entering correction territory. Markets are reacting to escalating Iran war developments, with oil prices hitting near four-year highs above $100 per barrel as President Trump discusses potential ground operations. Key focus this week includes Nike earnings and the March jobs report.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite have both fallen more than 10% from record highs, entering correction territory after five straight weeks of losses
• West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures traded above $100 per barrel for the first time since July 2022 after Trump told The Financial Times his 'favorite' plan would be to 'take the oil in Iran,' likely requiring ground troops and extending the war
• Eli Lilly signed a deal worth up to $2.75 billion with AI drug developer Insilico Medicine, paying $115 million upfront for exclusive rights to commercialize any drugs that reach market, with about half of Insilico's 28 AI-developed drugs currently in clinical trials

U.S. markets are attempting to rebound after recording their worst week of 2026, driven by the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and oil market turmoil. Brent crude is on track for its largest monthly gain ever, rising 55% in March, while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. President Trump has threatened military action if the strait isn't reopened and a peace deal isn't reached shortly.

• Oil prices jumped after Trump vowed to 'take the oil in Iran,' with Brent crude posting a record 55% monthly gain in March as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed
• Trump agreed to pay TSA employees after a shutdown deal collapsed, as travelers face long security wait times and potentially higher airfares due to surging oil prices
• Meta's recent courtroom defeats over user impact research could create legal liability concerns for AI companies funding similar studies on their technology's societal implications

Economic sentiment and consumer confidence in Europe plummeted in March 2026 as the Iran war entered its fifth week, with both EU and euro area indicators falling below their long-term average of 100. The conflict has disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, driving up energy prices and raising fears of stagflation, while President Trump has sent mixed signals about potential military escalation versus peace negotiations.

• EU economic sentiment fell 1.5 points to 96.7 and euro area sentiment dropped 1.6 points to 96.6 in March, with consumer confidence hitting its lowest level since October 2023
• The ECB now expects 2026 economic growth of just 0.9% with inflation averaging 2.6% this year, prompting warnings from ECB President Lagarde about potential interest rate hikes
• European officials fear long-term economic damage from the conflict, as Iran's near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to push up global energy prices

US stock futures pointed to a firmer open on Monday with Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures all up around 0.6%, following a week of heavy selling that left indices down 2.8% to 5.25%. Markets attempted to recover despite ongoing uncertainty around the five-week-old Middle East conflict with Iran, mixed diplomatic signals, and rising oil prices reaching $101.30 per barrel.

• All three major US indices are down 7.5-7.9% from recent highs after four weeks of Middle East conflict, with WTI crude oil climbing 1.7% to $101.30 as concerns persist around the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global oil passes
• US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told G7 members to expect the war to continue for two to four weeks, while Iran dismissed US proposals as 'unrealistic, illogical and excessive' and Trump suggested potential military operations including seizing Iran's oil infrastructure
• European markets opened higher with London's FTSE up 0.9%, while Asian markets were more cautious with Japanese and Indian benchmarks falling over 2%, as investors navigate geopolitical uncertainty ahead of quarter-end and Friday's Non-Farm Payroll release

A hypothetical investment strategy of placing $10,000 in the top-performing S&P 500 stock each month starting in January would have generated $53,314 by the end of March, a 434% gain. This contrasts sharply with the S&P 500's 7.5% decline during the same period, with March alone seeing a 6% drop. Energy company APA led March gains with a 45.9% surge amid oil price strength driven by inflation fears and conflict in Iran.

• The winning stocks were SanDisk (up 142.8% in January), Texas Pacific Land (up 50.5% in February), and APA (up 45.9% in March), with energy and materials sectors dominating the top performers
• Despite the S&P 500's worst monthly performance in March with a 6% decline, more than 50 index stocks still posted gains, with four rising over 30%
• Historical data shows April typically ranks as the second-best performing month for the S&P 500 since 1950 with an average 1.8% gain, though tariff risks and geopolitical tensions may impact 2025 results

Oil prices surged with Brent crude crossing $116 per barrel and U.S. crude exceeding $102 amid escalating Middle East tensions, as Iran-affiliated Houthi forces attacked Saudi Arabia and President Trump suggested U.S. troops could target Iran's Kharg Island oil hub. The energy shock is driving inflation concerns globally, with U.S. gas prices jumping by a third in March to nearly $4 per gallon, while Asian stocks fell sharply and the Japanese yen weakened past intervention levels.

• Brent crude crossed $116 per barrel and U.S. crude rose above $102, with 3-month futures also above $100, indicating expectations of persistent inflationary pressure from sustained high energy prices
• Asian markets declined sharply with Japan's Nikkei falling 2.8% (down nearly 13% for March) and South Korea's KOSPI dropping nearly 3% (down almost 9% for the month)
• G7 finance ministers and central bankers are meeting virtually to address the energy crisis, while Fed Chair Powell and other officials are scheduled to speak as German CPI data will provide early indication of inflation impact

Federal Reserve officials are growing concerned that rising gasoline prices and increasing bond yields may undermine public confidence in the Fed's ability to control inflation. After oil prices surged over 50% in four weeks due to conflict with Iran, household inflation expectations have risen, threatening the 'anchored' expectations the Fed relies on to maintain its 2% inflation target. This comes after five years of above-target inflation, raising fears of a repeat of 1970s-style inflationary psychology.

• Oil prices reached $110 per barrel, driving up gasoline costs and pushing household one-year inflation expectations higher in recent surveys, while weak Treasury auctions suggested investor concerns about inflation
• Philadelphia Fed President noted that long-term inflation expectations remain around 2% but 'may be a little more fragile' after years of elevated inflation and another potential price shock
• Markets have priced out Fed rate cuts and are betting on potential rate hikes this year, with officials emphasizing vigilance to avoid repeating the 1970s scenario when unchecked expectations required punishing rate increases

Sri Lanka raised electricity tariffs by up to 9.9% on March 30, 2026, as energy costs surge due to the Iran war. The increase affects households, industries, and hotels, and is part of the country's $2.9 billion IMF program requiring cost-reflective energy pricing to stabilize its state-run power utility.

• Households face 7.2% higher power bills while industries pay 8.7% more; hotels linked to tourism pay 9.9% more, with increases taking effect in April
• The state Ceylon Electricity Board requested 13.56% hikes to cover a $52.6 million revenue shortfall, but regulators approved lower increases
• Sri Lanka implemented emergency measures including weekly Wednesday public holidays, fuel rationing, 35% pump price increases, and is spending $600 million on April fuel imports

Morgan Stanley downgraded global equities to equal weight and upgraded cash and US Treasuries to overweight, responding to escalating Middle East oil supply risks. Brent crude has surged 59% this month to over $116 per barrel, its steepest rise since the 1990 Gulf War. The bank warns equities could decline 25% if oil prices remain between $150-$180 per barrel.

• Morgan Stanley cut US and Japanese equities to equal weight from overweight, citing 'asymmetric outcomes' for risk assets amid crude price surges and supply uncertainty
• Brent crude jumped 59% in March, briefly exceeding $116 per barrel, with potential for 25% equity valuation contraction if prices reach $150-$180 range
• Safe-haven flows have reversed back to US Treasuries and dollar assets as the US is less import-dependent than Europe, providing better diversification during oil shocks