General Market News

The Trump administration is expected to reject requests from U.S. manufacturers to accelerate the implementation timeline for a new 15% tariff and price floor on polysilicon product imports. The tariff is set to take effect 120 days after announcement (potentially Thursday), despite industry lobbying for a faster 90-day timeline to limit sales from a major foreign producer into the U.S. market.

• A 15% tariff and price floor on polysilicon derivatives could be announced as soon as Thursday with a 120-day implementation period
• Some U.S. manufacturers lobbied for a shortened 90-day timeline, arguing the extra month would allow a top foreign producer to flood the U.S. market and harm domestic rivals
• The administration is expected to maintain the longer 120-day implementation period, rejecting the industry's request for acceleration

The week of August 10-14, 2026 will bring a packed schedule for investors, with key inflation data (CPI and PPI), retail sales, and earnings reports from multiple technology and growth companies. Critical economic indicators include consumer price index data on Wednesday and producer price index on Thursday, alongside jobless claims and consumer sentiment readings.

• CPI and core CPI inflation data release Wednesday, August 12, followed by PPI data on Thursday, August 13
• Notable earnings reports include CAVA Group, Lumentum, Cerebras Systems, Applied Materials, and several other high-beta growth names throughout the week
• Additional economic releases include NFIB small business optimism, existing home sales, retail sales, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release July's nonfarm payrolls report, with economists expecting a modest gain of 83,000 jobs and unemployment holding steady at 4.2%. Beyond headline numbers, economists will scrutinize labor force participation, wage growth, and job sector composition to assess labor market health as the Federal Reserve weighs potential interest rate hikes amid persistent inflation concerns.

• Labor force participation rate fell to 61.5% in June, the lowest since March 2021 (excluding pandemic), with prime-age worker participation (25-54) dropping to its lowest since December 2023
• The labor market is characterized as 'low-hire, low-fire' with employment declining by 833,000 in 2026 despite steady unemployment, particularly impacting young workers and new entrants
• Average hourly earnings expected to rise 0.3% monthly and 3.5% annually, while some economists like Citigroup predict the unemployment rate could rise above 4.5%, potentially triggering Fed rate cuts in Q4

LATAM Airlines Group reported second-quarter 2026 earnings of 58 cents per share, beating estimates, with revenues rising 27.6% year-over-year to $4.18 billion, surpassing consensus by 8.6%. Strong passenger revenues (up 27.9%) and cargo revenues (up 21.8%) drove growth, though operating margins contracted due to jet fuel costs surging 93.1% year-over-year.

• Passenger unit revenues climbed 17.5% on higher fares and strong yields despite 8.9% capacity expansion; premium offerings contributed 29% of passenger revenues
• Adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 raised to $4.10-$4.40 billion from prior $3.80-$4.20 billion range; revenue outlook increased to $17.30-$17.70 billion
• Operating margin compressed 7.5 percentage points to 5.4% as jet fuel prices climbed 81.3% to $194.50 per barrel; company ended quarter with $4.23 billion total liquidity

Oil prices rallied on August 6, 2026, as Houthi forces attacked Saudi-backed troops in Yemen, raising Middle East supply concerns. WTI crude gained 3.15% and Brent rose 3.45%, while natural gas declined 1.20% following a larger-than-expected storage build. The conflict escalation threatens potential supply disruptions in a key oil-producing region.

• Natural gas fell as EIA reported storage increased by 33 Bcf versus 31 Bcf expected, with stocks 195 Bcf above the five-year average, pressuring prices toward the $2.50-$2.55 support range
• WTI oil pushed above $77.50-$78.00 resistance toward the 50-day MA at $80.07, driven by Houthi attacks on Saudi-backed forces and potential end to the 2022 ceasefire
• Brent crude tested resistance at $82.00-$82.50 as traders monitored a potential Iran-Oman agreement on Strait of Hormuz management for 2-4 months, though U.S. naval blockade complicates implementation

Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook signaled readiness to raise interest rates if inflation remains elevated, as dissent grows within the Fed over policy direction. Inflation has stayed above the Fed's 2% target for over five years, easing only to 3.5% in June. Cook warned that the Fed is running out of time to address stubborn inflation before it becomes entrenched in the economy.

• At last week's Fed meeting, nine officials voted to hold rates steady in the 3.5%-3.75% range, while three dissenting members (Logan, Hammack, Kashkari) pushed for a quarter-point hike
• Cook warned that inflation 'may become entrenched in price- and wage-setting behavior' and emphasized the Fed doesn't have the 'luxury' to wait longer given elevated price pressures
• The debate centers on whether recent inflation improvement is sufficient to avoid rate hikes, or if waiting too long risks allowing inflation to run rampant amid uncertainties including tariffs and Middle East conflicts

Federal Reserve officials are beginning to monitor financial stability risks from the rapid pace of AI investment, though views differ on the severity of the threat. While some Fed leaders like NY Fed President John Williams do not see a bubble forming, others including Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid are raising concerns about leverage, complex financing structures, and potential 'too big to fail' risks. The investment scale and uncertain returns on unproven technology have put AI finance on the central bank's watchlist.

• AI data-center buildout is currently less than half the size of the 2005 housing boom (which peaked at 6.6% of GDP), but investment pace relative to GDP is growing faster than housing did before the financial crisis
• Kansas City Fed's Schmid questioned whether circular financing commitments between data centers, energy providers, and communities are becoming over-leveraged and could create contagion risks
• San Francisco Fed's Daly noted that many AI commitments remain announcements rather than physical realities, reducing 'stranded asset' risk, but emphasized the Fed is building a monitoring dashboard for potential problems

Oil prices jumped approximately 3.5-4% on Thursday after Iran's state news agency published a draft plan imposing restrictive conditions on ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The increase reversed an 8% decline earlier in the week when U.S. officials suggested a deal to increase strait traffic was near.

• Brent crude rose about 4% to $82.72 per barrel while WTI increased 3.5% to $77.83 following the Iranian announcement
• Iran's draft plan would ban U.S. and Israeli ships from the strait and impose penalties equivalent to 20% of cargo value on violators, with other nations required to pay compensation for past harms
• A tanker reported two explosions near Oman while transiting Hormuz, and Iran's Houthi allies claimed an attack on a Saudi tanker in the Red Sea

SpaceX and Sandisk stocks experienced sharp intraday rebounds on August 6, 2026, but failed to sustain gains as AI spending concerns continue to pressure tech stocks. SpaceX bounced from near its all-time low of $104.83 to $115.75 before fading back to $109.22, while Sandisk surged from $1558.61 to $1696.37 before giving back most gains. The broader market remains under pressure with the S&P 500 down 0.11% and confirmed reversal patterns suggesting potential pullbacks toward 50-day moving averages.

• SpaceX is testing its lockup period which allows up to 20% of restricted insider and early-investor shares to be sold, with the stock trading near its all-time low despite the intraday recovery attempt.
• Sandisk's data-center revenue rose over 400% in 2026 versus 2025 and doubled quarter-over-quarter, but investors are selling on concerns that upside revisions cannot maintain their historic pace despite beating revenue estimates.
• Iran and Oman are working toward a temporary arrangement for Strait of Hormuz transit, which if successful would contain oil prices and reduce inflation pressure on equities, though confirmation requires resumption of normal tanker traffic.

CTO Realty (CTO) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), placing it in the top 5% of covered stocks. The upgrade is driven by upward revisions in earnings estimates, which historically correlate with near-term stock price increases. This positions CTO as a potential candidate for market-beating returns.

• CTO Realty's fiscal year 2026 earnings estimates have increased 1.2% over the past three months, reflecting improved business outlook
• Zacks Rank #1 stocks have historically generated an average annual return of +25% since 1988
• The upgrade reflects positive earnings estimate revisions from analysts, which the Zacks system identifies as a powerful predictor of near-term stock price movements

Editas Medicine (EDIT) reported second-quarter 2026 results that beat earnings estimates with a loss of 15 cents per share, narrower than expected. Collaboration revenues rose to $11.9 million from $3.6 million year-over-year, significantly exceeding the $2 million consensus estimate. The company is advancing its lead gene-editing therapy EDIT-401 toward clinical trials, with a regulatory filing planned for August 2026 in Australia.

• EDIT-401 showed durable LDL cholesterol reductions of approximately 90% or more in preclinical non-human primate studies, with effects lasting at least six months
• The company plans to file a Clinical Trial Notification in Australia in August 2026 and expects to report top-line results from the phase I/II study in 2027
• Cash position of $211.6 million as of June 30, 2026 is expected to fund operations into the second half of 2028, supported by a $1.3 million restructuring benefit from discontinuing the reni-cel program

Mortgage rates climbed to their highest level in over a year, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage reaching 6.69%, up from 6.66% the previous week, according to Freddie Mac's latest survey. The increase continues to pressure housing affordability, though the market shows some adjustment with listing prices moderately below year-ago levels and improving inventory.

• The 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 6.69%, compared to 6.63% one year ago, marking a new 12-month high
• The 15-year fixed mortgage rate decreased slightly to 6.01% from 6.04% the previous week
• Despite rate pressures on affordability, the housing market shows signs of adjustment with listing prices below year-ago levels and improved for-sale inventory

Russia increased crude and condensate output in July by approximately 100,000 barrels per day to above 9 million bpd, driven by strong exports and recovering refinery operations. However, escalating drone attacks on refineries and limited tanker capacity in the Black Sea may prevent maintaining this production level in August. Oil sales remain critical for Russia's budget revenue despite Western sanctions and ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure.

• July production rose to above 9 million bpd from June's 8.928 million bpd, though Russia stopped publishing official oil output data in 2023
• Russia plans to increase crude exports from western ports by 4% in August, as unplanned refinery outages free up volumes for export
• Drone attacks in late July and early August, combined with Black Sea tanker capacity shortages, could force producers to curb output due to difficulties placing crude volumes

Traders on prediction market platform Kalshi now see a 66% chance that the S&P 500 will hit 8,000 in 2026, following a surge of over 5% across four sessions. The index closed Wednesday just 3.6% away from that level, driven by easing Middle East tensions, strong earnings, and renewed momentum in AI stocks after a late June-July slump.

• Kalshi traders place 2-in-3 odds for S&P 500 crossing 8,000 in 2026, and a one-in-three chance of reaching 8,200 this year
• The recent rally was fueled by U.S.-Iran tension easing, strong earnings season, and recovery from the near-collapse of the Situational Awareness fund
• Analysts view the June-July pullback as a healthy reset rather than the end of the bull market, citing rising earnings estimates and resilient economic growth

US stocks opened mixed on Thursday as optimism over a potential Strait of Hormuz reopening deal supported the Dow, which rose 47 points, while the Nasdaq fell 0.42% due to weakness in chip and software stocks. Despite generally strong earnings and AI-driven demand, semiconductor companies including Western Digital (down 18%) and software firms like AppLovin (down 18%) tumbled on investor concerns about guidance positioning.

• Western Digital dropped over 18% despite beating revenue expectations, dragging down the semiconductor sector with Micron falling 5% and other chip stocks declining across the board
• Initial jobless claims came in at 199,000, below the 202,000 estimate, showing labor market resilience ahead of Friday's nonfarm payrolls report
• Markets remain divided on Federal Reserve policy with September rate expectations split nearly evenly between a hike and no change, while Iran-Oman negotiations on reopening the Strait of Hormuz (which handles significant global oil traffic) helped ease energy price concerns

US stock indices showed mixed performance in early Thursday trading after a strong 5-6 day rally, with rising Treasury yields adding pressure to markets. The Nasdaq 100 drifted lower while the Dow Jones remained flat and the S&P 500 struggled near recent highs, with technical analysts noting the market may be overextended.

• The Nasdaq 100 traded around 29,367.65, pulling back slightly after its multi-day surge, with rising US rates contributing to downward pressure
• The S&P 500 formed a 'shooting star' pattern at 7,742.48 after breaking to fresh highs, with technical analysts targeting 7,900 as the next resistance level
• All three indices showed signs of exhaustion after rapid gains, with analysts expecting either a pullback or sideways consolidation to work off excess momentum

U.S. weekly jobless claims rose slightly to 199,000 in early August, below the forecasted 202,000, while planned layoffs dropped 27% to 33,429 in July, reaching a two-year low. The stable labor market allows the Federal Reserve to focus on inflation concerns stemming from the Middle East conflict rather than employment weakness.

• Planned job cuts by U.S. employers fell to the lowest level since July 2024, down 46% year-over-year, with layoffs concentrated primarily in the technology sector due to AI-related restructuring
• Nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 80,000 jobs in July with unemployment holding steady at 4.2%, though job growth has slowed after accelerating in the spring
• The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.50%-3.75% with three dissenting members preferring a quarter-point hike, as the stable labor market shifts focus to inflation from the six-month Middle East conflict

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals announced it will acquire privately held Alkeus Pharmaceuticals for up to $800 million to gain gildeuretinol, an experimental oral therapy for Stargardt disease, a rare inherited retinal disorder affecting over 36,000 Americans with no approved U.S. treatment. The deal includes $450 million upfront ($270 million cash, $180 million stock) plus up to $350 million in milestone payments.

• Gildeuretinol targets toxic vitamin A dimers that damage retinal cells in Stargardt disease patients, with initial late-stage trial data expected in second half of 2029
• Stargardt disease progressively damages central vision starting in childhood or adolescence, impairing reading, facial recognition, and driving abilities
• The transaction expands Tarsus' eye disease pipeline beyond its approved product Xdemvy for eyelid inflammation and is expected to close in 2026 subject to regulatory approval

US stock futures traded mixed on Thursday as the Dow gained 0.3% while Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.5%, driven by weakness in AI-linked memory and storage stocks. Western Digital and SanDisk dropped sharply despite strong earnings, as investors rotated away from high-valuation tech toward industrial and defensive stocks. The divergence signals that AI-sector gains must now exceed elevated expectations embedded in current valuations.

• Western Digital reported 44% revenue growth to $3.75 billion and SanDisk's revenue surged to $8.97 billion, yet both stocks fell sharply as forward guidance failed to justify valuations after a 400% rally in 2026
• The semiconductor sell-off spread globally, with Samsung and SK Hynix falling in Seoul while Nvidia, Micron, and AMD declined over 1% pre-market, concentrated in AI infrastructure hardware stocks
• Oil prices, Federal Reserve policy uncertainty, and weak July private payrolls (only 44,000 jobs added) are adding macro headwinds ahead of Friday's critical nonfarm payrolls report

Gold prices climbed to a seven-week high of $4,295 per ounce on Wednesday, driven by weaker-than-expected July payrolls data and optimism over a potential deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The rally marks gold's fourth consecutive winning session, though the precious metal remains over 20% below its January 2026 peak of $5,589 per ounce.

• Weak ADP jobs report reduces likelihood of a Fed interest rate hike in September, benefiting non-yielding gold as an investment
• Dollar index hovering near 6-week lows around 99.78 following U.S.-Japan intervention in the yen, with gold trading inversely to the greenback during the conflict
• Iran signals a deal with Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is close, easing Middle East tensions and supporting risk assets including gold