General Market News

US stocks rallied on Wednesday with the Dow jumping 340 points (0.69%), S&P 500 up 1%, and Nasdaq climbing 1.64% to a fresh all-time high. The gains were driven by an extended US-Iran ceasefire announcement and strong corporate earnings, with over 80% of S&P 500 companies beating expectations. However, oil prices remain above $100 per barrel amid ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

• President Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran citing internal divisions in Tehran, though negotiations remain uncertain and Iran seized two container ships in the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20% of global oil supply
• First-quarter earnings growth is tracking at 14% with more than 80% of reporting companies exceeding expectations; technology stocks led gains with the semiconductor index hitting record highs for the 11th consecutive session
• GE Vernova surged approximately 12% after raising its annual revenue outlook, exemplifying how strong earnings reports are driving individual stock momentum in the current rally

U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro announced she will continue her controversial DOJ investigation of the Federal Reserve and appeal a federal judge's order blocking grand jury subpoenas related to alleged cost overruns on Fed building renovations. The probe, which Fed Chairman Jerome Powell claims targets him for refusing Trump's demands to lower interest rates, has jeopardized the confirmation of Kevin Warsh, Trump's nominee to replace Powell.

• Federal Judge James Boasberg blocked the subpoenas last month, citing a 'mountain of evidence' suggesting they were issued to pressure the Fed's board, raising concerns about central bank independence from executive interference
• Senator Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) has vowed to block Warsh's nomination in the Senate Banking Committee until the DOJ drops the investigation of Powell, whose term expires May 15
• The investigation centers on alleged cost overruns exceeding $1 billion on Fed building renovations, though Trump has overstated the actual costs, claiming they were 'close to $4 billion' when they are roughly a fraction of that amount

Wall Street executives are increasingly optimistic that the stalemate over Kevin Warsh's Fed chair nomination will be resolved before Jerome Powell's term ends May 15. Sen. Thom Tillis proposed an 'off ramp' to end a DOJ investigation into Powell over Fed headquarters costs, potentially clearing the way for Warsh's confirmation. The deal would transfer the investigation to the Senate Banking Committee, with sources suggesting Trump might accept if Powell leaves the Fed entirely.

• Sen. Tillis (R-NC) proposed ending the DOJ probe into whether Powell misled Congress about the $2.5 billion cost of Fed headquarters renovations, instead having the Senate Banking Committee lead any investigation
• Trump may accept the deal if Powell leaves completely after his term ends, rather than staying as a Fed governor until January 2028 as he is entitled to do
• Without a resolution, Tillis will continue blocking Warsh's nomination in committee, potentially allowing Powell to remain as chairman indefinitely in a 'pro tem' capacity beyond May 15

Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh told lawmakers he wants the central bank to use 'trimmed mean' inflation measures that exclude extreme price shocks, rather than the current core PCE gauge. Bank of America warns this approach could backfire, as it might actually result in higher inflation readings than current methods during certain periods, potentially forcing the Fed into a more hawkish stance than intended.

• Trimmed mean inflation currently shows 2.3% mean and 2.8% median as of February, compared to 3% for core PCE, making inflation appear softer today
• Bank of America data shows trimmed measures ran higher than core PCE in 2019-2020, meaning Warsh's preferred method could have encouraged tighter policy in those years
• Bhave warns that excluding only extreme readings could allow food and energy price spikes to enter the calculation, potentially raising inflation readings and limiting Warsh's policy flexibility

The Nasdaq Composite Index reached an all-time high of 24,596.22 on April 22, 2026, driven by strong corporate earnings and a ceasefire extension that reduced market uncertainty. Semiconductor stocks have posted 16 consecutive days of gains, reflecting sustained demand for AI and data infrastructure, while over 80% of S&P 500 companies have exceeded Wall Street earnings estimates.

• The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index logged 16 straight days of gains, signaling strong conviction in AI and data infrastructure spending with no signs of slowdown
• Over 80% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings estimates this season, with key reports from Tesla and Texas Instruments expected to move markets
• Technical support levels are identified at 23,471-23,696 for potential pullbacks, with stronger support near 22,640 (50-day moving average) if the rally falters

A risk-on rally in crypto-related stocks signals the return of 'Animal Spirits' in the market as Bitcoin approaches $80,000 for the first time since February. Options volume is surging in Strategy (MicroStrategy) and Coinbase, with call buying significantly outpacing puts. The bullish action in volatile, speculative names suggests traders are moving past geopolitical concerns like the Iran war.

• Strategy (MSTR) rose 9% with call volume outpacing puts 5-to-1, while the most popular contract is April 24 $180-strike calls with the stock trading around $177
• A trader spent $120,000 on 1,000 Coinbase $230-strike calls expiring this Friday, betting on a 10%+ surge from current levels around $205
• The Cboe Volatility Index fell even as crude oil prices gained 4%, indicating reduced fear despite geopolitical risks and ahead of Tesla earnings

New research from Lund University shows the electric vehicle battery market has successfully adapted to raw material shortages and price changes over 15 years through rapid technology shifts. The study identifies four major innovation leaps where manufacturers replaced critical materials like cobalt and nickel-manganese-cobalt with alternatives such as lithium iron phosphate. These findings suggest individual materials may be less critical than policymakers assumed, with implications for resource strategy and trade policy.

• EV batteries have undergone four major technology shifts since the early 2010s, including replacing cobalt with nickel and shifting from NMC to LFP batteries to manage costs and material availability
• Over 25% of new cars sold globally are now electric, with 39 countries surpassing key market adoption thresholds, indicating continued growth potential
• Researchers recommend governments focus on international cooperation and trade alliances rather than solely pursuing new mining projects, given the market's demonstrated ability to adapt to supply pressures

Markets have experienced turbulence over the past month due to escalating tensions in Iran, with the VIX volatility index rising to around 25. Despite geopolitical concerns, the U.S. economic backdrop remains resilient with positive data across manufacturing, industrial production, and labor markets. The analysis suggests investor anxiety is moderate rather than indicating expectations of severe disruption.

• VIX at 25 indicates elevated but not extreme fear, well below the 50+ levels seen during 'Liberation Day' volatility in 2025 and 80+ during COVID selloff
• Economic indicators remain constructive: Dallas Fed Weekly Index at 2.9, ISM Manufacturing PMI at 52.7 (above 50 expansion threshold), and unemployment at 4.4% versus 5.5% long-term average
• Industrial production improved in early 2026 and consumer spending stayed steady despite elevated prices, with job market showing stability as layoffs have not meaningfully increased

Goldman Sachs has appointed Akila Raman as global head of its private and alternatives capital markets business and expanded Michael Voris's role to Americas head of Equity Derivatives. Both positions fall under Goldman's Capital Solutions Group, which focuses on financing large deals and providing corporate loans.

• Raman, a Goldman insider since 2004, will focus on capital raising, structuring, and distribution solutions within the alternatives asset class, most recently serving as chief commercial and strategy officer of Transaction Banking
• Voris, who joined Goldman in 2010 and became partner in 2020, will continue as co-head of Equity Capital Markets of the Americas while expanding focus on growing the equity derivatives segment
• The appointments strengthen Goldman's Capital Solutions Group, a unit dedicated to large-scale deal financing and corporate client lending

U.S. stocks recovered from a 9% March pullback, with the S&P 500 hitting record highs as Q1 earnings season begins strongly. Despite solid corporate performance with 76% of companies beating estimates, a stark disconnect persists as consumer sentiment hit all-time lows in April. Investors now focus on upcoming earnings from major tech companies and critical economic data including PMIs, retail sales, and the Fed's policy meeting.

• Q1 earnings beat rate of 76% exceeds the typical 68% first-week average, with major Mag 7 tech companies set to report results in coming weeks
• Consumer sentiment reached historic lows despite record stock prices, creating an unprecedented divergence between market performance and household financial confidence
• Key April economic data including PMIs, Conference Board confidence, PCE inflation, Q1 GDP, and employment reports will shape market outlook alongside Fed meeting on April 29-30

Pre-market trading shows strong gains across major indices, with the Dow up 303 points (+0.61%) and Nasdaq leading at +0.80%, as markets recover from Tuesday's decline. An extended Iran ceasefire and solid Q1 earnings results are driving positive sentiment, while investors await Weekly Jobless Claims data and the Fed's interest rate decision next week.

• Boeing reported significantly improved Q1 earnings, while GE Vernova posted strong results and CME Group missed earnings expectations by a penny at $3.36 per share
• The 'AI trade' is reviving market momentum, with major tech earnings from Tesla, IBM, Texas Instruments, Southwest Airlines, and ServiceNow expected after the close
• Fed Chair uncertainty continues as Senator Thom Tillis insists the DOJ drop its probe into Jerome Powell before confirming nominee Kevin Warsh, who did not commit to rate cuts in testimony

Rising oil-driven inflation concerns are delaying expectations for Fed rate cuts, but the 10-year Treasury real yield has risen 43 basis points since late February, signaling a 'higher-for-longer' repricing driven by inflation rather than economic growth concerns. The real yield remains a key indicator to watch for signs of deteriorating economic outlook or flight-to-safety behavior.

• The 10-year Treasury real yield has increased 43 basis points since the conflict with Iran began in late February, reflecting higher-for-longer rate expectations without increased macro uncertainty
• The Fed faces a policy dilemma where rate cuts could fuel inflation while rate hikes could damage economic growth
• A significant fall in real yields would signal investor concerns about future economic growth and a flight to safety, but current rising yields do not yet indicate growth risks

The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to commercial shipping despite President Trump's ceasefire extension with Iran, with only about six ships transiting daily compared to over 100 before the conflict. Iran continues controlling traffic and attacking unauthorized vessels while the U.S. maintains its blockade of Iranian ports. The disruption has caused what's described as the largest oil supply disruption in history, affecting 20% of global crude supplies.

• Daily ship traffic through the strait remains at only 6 vessels compared to 100+ ships before the war, with Iran's Revolutionary Guard seizing ships and firing on vessels attempting 'unauthorized' crossings
• The security situation remains dangerous with multiple attacks this week, including Iranian forces firing on cargo and container ships, causing heavy damage
• Oil supply recovery will be slow, with flows not expected to reach 90% of pre-war levels until July, and processed products taking up to two additional months to reach refineries globally

BlackRock's investment team is recommending investors buy into AI-related companies as the 'AI trade' regains momentum in 2026. The asset manager sees the AI investment theme broadening beyond U.S. tech giants to emerging markets like South Korea and Taiwan. This shift comes as the Nasdaq Composite touched new highs and tech valuations recovered from first-quarter lows driven by geopolitical concerns.

• Technology stock valuations, especially AI-exposed names, fell to multi-year lows in March but have since rebounded as investor sentiment returns to the AI theme
• The AI trade is expanding beyond the Magnificent 7 U.S. tech companies to include semiconductor suppliers, datacenter builders, and Asian markets like South Korea and Taiwan
• Major AI investments continue with Amazon committing up to $25 billion to Anthropic, while Tesla prepares to report earnings with focus on its transition toward AI and robotics

U.S. stocks and bonds suffered significant losses in March 2025 as conflict with Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, spiking oil prices and raising inflation concerns. The S&P 500 posted its worst monthly performance since 2022, while bond yields surged to 4.44% and the market completely priced out Federal Reserve rate cuts for 2025. International markets were particularly hard hit due to greater dependence on Middle Eastern oil supplies.

• Oil prices spiked as the Strait of Hormuz closure cut off roughly 20% of global oil supply, causing U.S. retail gasoline prices to increase by approximately $1 per gallon and hitting international markets harder than domestic ones
• The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped from below 4% in late February to a 2025 high of 4.44% on March 27, with the market shifting from pricing two rate cuts to pricing zero cuts in 2025 based on inflation concerns
• Economic data showed mixed signals with payrolls falling 92,000 in February (versus expectations of 55,000 jobs added), unemployment rising to 4.4%, and Q4 2025 GDP revised sharply lower to just 0.7% annualized growth

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell to approximately 19, down 2.5%, marking its calmest level since March as President Trump extended the Iran ceasefire indefinitely. The decline signals normalized fear levels and returning risk appetite, with equity markets rallying across the board and small-cap stocks outperforming large-caps.

• The VIX has dropped nearly 30% over the past month, falling from a 12-month high above 31 in late March to below 20, with SPY up 0.73%, QQQ up 0.85%, and IWM gaining 0.94% on the session
• Small-cap Russell 2000 (IWM) has recovered 13% over the past month, outpacing large-caps and signaling genuine risk appetite rather than defensive rotation into mega-cap stocks
• Trump's open-ended ceasefire extension with Iran removed immediate geopolitical concerns, though any breakdown in negotiations could quickly push the VIX back toward 22

Shares of business development companies (BDCs), which are publicly traded private credit lenders, are trading at their steepest discounts in over five years. The median price-to-net asset value ratio hit roughly 0.74 in March 2025, implying a 26% discount, the widest since October 2020. Investor concerns center on whether reported valuations accurately reflect credit market strains and exposures to vulnerable sectors like software.

• BDCs use fair-value estimates and internal models to value portfolios, raising skepticism that net asset values may overstate true holdings as these methods can lag shifts in credit conditions
• Redemption pressures are mounting, with some non-traded BDCs like Barings Private Credit Corp. reporting oversubscribed tender offers, highlighting liquidity constraints in the private credit market
• BDCs with material software sector exposure have faced increased scrutiny amid concerns about potential disruption from artificial intelligence

US stock indices rallied on Wednesday after President Trump extended a ceasefire with Iran following requests from Pakistani mediators, despite ongoing regional tensions. The Dow Jones rose 417 points (0.85%), while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 0.67% and 0.72% respectively. Strong corporate earnings and AI optimism provided additional support, though oil near $100 per barrel and unresolved Iran negotiations pose continued risks.

• Trump extended the Iran ceasefire citing 'seriously fractured' Iranian leadership, but tensions remain with Iran seizing ships in the Strait of Hormuz and US naval blockade still in place
• S&P 500 earnings estimates for 2026-27 have risen, with strong reports from Boeing (smaller loss than expected) and Adobe (announced $25 billion AI partnership with AWS)
• Oil prices near $100 per barrel raise inflation concerns that could complicate Federal Reserve policy, while crypto-linked stocks surged on improved risk appetite (Coinbase +4.65%, Strategy +7.4%)

Swedish central bank Governor Erik Thedeen warned on April 22 that inflation risks have increased beyond the Riksbank's recent expectations due to the Middle East conflict. He cited supply disruptions from the war, particularly concerns around the Strait of Hormuz, as driving higher energy prices and inflationary pressures that could persist even if tensions ease.

• Thedeen stated that even if an agreement on opening the Strait of Hormuz materializes soon, inflationary pressures and high energy prices will not quickly subside
• The Riksbank may need to take action if inflation risks deviating permanently from its 2% target
• The Middle East war is causing negative supply disruptions to the global economy, increasing inflation concerns for Sweden's monetary policy

The European Union is considering requiring member countries to hold and potentially redistribute jet fuel stockpiles amid supply concerns stemming from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen stated the bloc may introduce redistribution tools if the supply crisis worsens, moving beyond normal market mechanisms. European airlines including TUI and easyJet have already issued profit warnings due to war-related supply uncertainties.

• The EU currently requires countries to hold 90 days' worth of oil and oil products in reserve, but jet fuel stockpiles are not specifically mandated
• The International Energy Agency forecasts jet fuel shortages by June if Europe can only replace half of the supplies normally received from the Middle East
• The European Commission proposed EU-wide monitoring of refinery output to maximize capacity, with hopes to increase European jet fuel production