General Market News

California defense startup Castelion secured a $105 million U.S. Navy contract to integrate its Blackbeard hypersonic missile onto carrier-based F/A-18 fighter jets, with weapons expected to be ready for deployment next year. The contract funds hardware integration, flight testing, and safety certification for this carrier-launched weapon designed to counter Chinese targets, particularly in potential Taiwan conflict scenarios.

• The Navy plans to purchase 4,500 air-launched hypersonic missiles for F/A-18E/F jets over five years at approximately $384,000 per unit, emphasizing affordability through use of automotive-grade components instead of costly space-rated systems
• Castelion is privately funding a $250 million manufacturing campus (Project Ranger) in New Mexico capable of producing thousands of Blackbeard missiles annually, with full capacity expected by end of next year
• Blackbeard travels faster than five times the speed of sound and provides carrier-based strike capability against Chinese missile sites and warships that land-based weapons cannot easily reach

Maine Governor Janet Mills vetoed a bill that would have made Maine the first U.S. state to impose a moratorium on large new data centers, citing concerns about disrupting jobs from an existing project. The bill would have frozen approvals for data centers requiring over 20 megawatts until October 2027. At least a dozen other U.S. states are considering similar moratoriums amid growing local opposition to large facilities supporting AI development.

• Maine's proposed moratorium would have halted approvals for data centers requiring more than 20 megawatts of power until October 2027 while a state council analyzed impacts on the grid, electricity bills, air and water
• Twelve other states including Georgia, Maryland, Michigan, New York, Virginia, and Wisconsin have introduced bills targeting data center construction, with moratorium periods ranging from one year to 2030
• The legislative pushback reflects growing local concerns about data centers' strain on power grids, utility rates, water supplies, and environmental impacts as tech companies race to build AI infrastructure

Democratic Senators Elizabeth Warren and Dick Durbin are challenging U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro's decision to close her investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, arguing she could reopen it at any time. Pirro announced Friday she was closing the probe as the Fed's inspector general investigates cost overruns on a renovation project, but stated she would 'not hesitate to restart a criminal investigation should the facts warrant.' The senators question whether this truly ends the threat to the Fed's independence.

• Pirro's prosecutors told a judge in March they had no specific evidence of wrongdoing, and the judge subsequently quashed her subpoenas against Powell
• Powell said in January the subpoenas were a pretext and that the Trump administration was displeased with him for not cutting interest rates faster than the Fed believed justified
• The investigation's status has delayed confirmation of Kevin Warsh, Trump's Fed chair nominee, as Sen. Tillis pledged to block the nomination while the probe continued

Brazil has blocked 27 prediction market platforms, including Polymarket and Kalshi, and restricted derivatives trading to prevent unregulated 'bet-like' products that officials say violate betting regulations. Finance Minister Dario Durigan announced the crackdown, with the National Monetary Council limiting derivatives to economic benchmarks like interest rates and exchange rates, while banning those tied to sports, political, or cultural outcomes.

• Telecoms regulator Anatel shut down 27 prediction market platforms, with major sites like Polymarket and Kalshi going offline by Friday afternoon
• The National Monetary Council now permits only derivatives tied to pre-defined economic and financial benchmarks (price indices, interest rates, exchange rates), effectively barring instruments linked to sports, gaming, or political outcomes
• The Lula administration, which has already regulated and taxed online betting firms, cited concerns that gambling proliferation has worsened household debt levels in Brazil

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell faces a decision on whether to remain at the Fed after his chair term expires May 15, following the Justice Department's referral of a criminal probe into Fed headquarters renovations to the inspector general. The choice has significant implications for Fed independence as President Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as Powell's successor and has threatened to fire Powell if he doesn't leave voluntarily. Powell could either follow historical precedent and depart or stay on as a governor through his term ending January 2028.

• U.S. Attorney referred the criminal investigation to the Fed's inspector general, removing the Justice Department from the probe and resolving a matter Powell said he would wait on before deciding his future
• If Powell leaves, Trump would gain the ability to appoint three of seven Board of Governors members (including Warsh), raising concerns about political interference with Fed independence
• Analysts at Evercore ISI believe Powell may stay on as governor for several months to 'avoid any impression of a de facto plea deal or exit under pressure' and to safeguard the institution during the transition

The U.S. has indicated it will not extend sanctions relief on Russian oil beyond the current May 16 deadline, according to European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic. The U.S. Treasury had temporarily eased sanctions to help lower-income countries facing oil shortages due to disruptions in a key strait during a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. Sefcovic received assurances from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that this one-time relief will not be repeated.

• The U.S. issued a general license allowing delivery of Russian crude oil and petroleum products loaded on vessels as of April 17, extending relief through May 16 after requests from vulnerable countries during IMF/World Bank meetings.
• Asian economies have struggled with physical oil supply shortages from the Gulf since the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran began on February 28, creating an 'extremely difficult situation' for oil-dependent nations.
• Sefcovic and Bessent also discussed disruptions to fertilizer supply chains affecting Europe and an 'alarming situation' in Africa, with both committing to cooperation on the issue.

Semiconductor stocks have surged 17 of the past 18 sessions, with the sector-tracking ETF up over 30% this month. Despite rising implied volatility making options increasingly expensive, traders continue aggressively buying call options to chase the rally. Intel's strong earnings overnight catalyzed a 20.9% jump in its stock and lifted competitor AMD 15%.

• Memory stocks like Micron and Western Digital show notably bullish options activity, with calls outnumbering puts 2:1 and total call premiums at least four times larger than puts
• Nvidia is an exception with lower implied volatility than the SMH ETF, trading about $3 below October all-time highs; one trader bought 7,500 May 15 $230-strike calls for $413,000, betting on a 13% rise ahead of May 20 earnings
• Rising implied volatility alongside price increases indicates traders are willing to pay premium prices for options exposure despite the sector's already substantial 30%+ monthly gain

Bitcoin has surged nearly 23% since late February amid geopolitical turmoil, significantly outperforming equities (down 3.3%) and gold (down 9%), while digital asset funds attracted approximately $1B in inflows this week. The Kevin Warsh Senate confirmation hearing removed near-term policy risk, while the pending Clarity Act faces a critical May deadline that could determine institutional adoption timelines. Blockchain equities are experiencing record inflows of $615M month-to-date as miners pivot toward AI infrastructure.

• Bitcoin gained 23% since Feb 28 Iran escalation while gold fell 9% and equities dropped 3.3%, with digital asset products attracting ~$1B in weekly inflows despite geopolitical instability
• Blockchain equity inflows hit monthly record of $615M month-to-date ($289M this week), with mining benchmarks up 31% YTD vs 6.9% for Nasdaq as miners reposition toward AI infrastructure
• Clarity Act must pass by May or probability drops sharply (Polymarket odds at 45%); passage would enable large banks to scale digital asset operations beyond custody, marking genuine institutional inflection

The U.S. Space Force awarded contracts worth up to $3.2 billion to 12 companies to develop space-based missile defense interceptors as part of President Trump's Golden Dome initiative. The program represents a strategic shift from ground-based systems to orbital weapons capable of destroying missile threats earlier in their flight path, with an integrated capability demonstration targeted for 2028.

• Space Systems Command awarded 20 agreements in late 2025 and early 2026 to major defense contractors including SpaceX, Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, and Anduril, with total potential value of $3.2 billion
• The Space-Based Interceptor (SBI) program deploys weapons in orbit to engage threats shortly after launch, marking a significant departure from existing ground-based missile defense systems
• The contracts initiate competition for future deals worth tens of billions of dollars, with the program aiming to demonstrate integrated Golden Dome capability by 2028

Brazil's Finance Minister Dario Durigan announced the country will regulate its critical minerals sector without offering new tax incentives, prioritizing national sovereignty and domestic processing. The government plans to auction critical minerals projects through its Eco Invest blended finance program in May or June. Brazil holds significant reserves of minerals essential for high-tech industries as the U.S. seeks to diversify supply chains away from China.

• Finance Minister states tax breaks are unnecessary given strong global demand and existing investor interest from major economies seeking partnerships in Latin America's largest economy
• Critical minerals will be prioritized in upcoming Eco Invest auctions (May/June) offering blended finance, with limited strategic subsidies rather than broad fiscal incentives
• Brazil's Development Minister confirmed the government opposes creating a state-owned critical minerals company while supporting swift congressional regulation of the sector

U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro dropped her investigation into Federal Reserve renovations on Friday, potentially clearing the path for Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Fed chair. However, the move doesn't fully resolve threats to Fed independence, as President Trump continues pressuring the central bank on interest rate policy and has suggested he might fire current Chair Jerome Powell even after Warsh's confirmation.

• Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) had blocked Warsh's nomination until the investigation was closed, viewing it as a threat to Fed independence from political pressure
• Pirro left the door open to restarting the probe, stating she 'will not hesitate to restart a criminal investigation should the facts warrant doing so' after reviewing the Fed inspector general's findings
• Trump has repeatedly demanded lower interest rates and suggested firing Powell before his term ends in January 2028, stating 'I'll have to fire him, OK? If he's not leaving on time' in an April 15 interview

U.S. stock markets showed uneven performance this week as tech stocks and earnings season competed for investor attention amid ongoing geopolitical concerns. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 traded mixed while major technology companies and blue-chip earnings reports drove sector-specific movements. Despite volatility, major indices were positioned for weekly gains heading into Friday's close.

• Tech sector showed mixed results with notable moves from QuantumScape (QS) and Texas Instruments (TXN) following earnings reports, while IBM also reported
• Blue-chip earnings from Dow components helped support the index mid-week, with American Airlines (AAL) showing resilience despite jet fuel cost pressures
• Geopolitical uncertainty remained a persistent overhang on markets, though investors focused on company-specific earnings news and tech sector performance

Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Gov. Kathy Hochul's proposed pied-à-terre tax on luxury second homes over $5 million in NYC is expected to trigger widespread legal battles over property valuations. The policy, which aims to raise $500 million annually, lacks clarity on whether it will use market values or NYC's lower assessment values, creating uncertainty for wealthy property owners. Business leaders warn the tax could drive wealth out of the city, with billionaires like Ken Griffin and Bill Ackman already signaling opposition.

• NYC's assessment values are drastically lower than market values - Ken Griffin's $238 million penthouse has an assessment value of just $6.99 million versus a market value of $15.5 million, creating confusion over which figure will be taxed.
• About 70% of properties sold for $5 million or more are second homes, with 4,146 Manhattan apartments in this price range sold over the past five years, meaning thousands of wealthy owners could be affected.
• The proposal leaves critical details unresolved, including whether it uses graduated rates, applies to entire property values or only amounts over $5 million, and how 'non-resident owner' will be defined to prevent tax avoidance.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent defended U.S. dollar swap line discussions with Persian Gulf and Asian allies amid economic strain from the Iran war. Bessent characterized the talks as routine conversations that demonstrate dollar primacy, while the Trump administration considers extending these financial mechanisms to countries including the UAE. The policy faces political risks as Trump's economic approval has dropped to 40% amid war-induced inflation.

• Swap lines allow central banks to exchange currencies with agreements to swap back at future dates; the U.S. currently maintains standing arrangements with Canada, England, Japan, Switzerland, and the European Central Bank
• The UAE and 'many' Gulf allies have requested swap lines as the Iran war disrupts oil-rich economies, though critics may view this as an unnecessary bailout of wealthy nations like the UAE, which has one of the world's highest per capita incomes
• Bessent argues swap lines reinforce dollar usage internationally, prevent disorderly asset sales, and counter alternative payment systems, noting many requesting countries have 'pristine sovereign balance sheets and large dollar holdings'

Ethanol producers, farmers, and fuel retailers are urging Congress to approve year-round sales of E15 gasoline (15% ethanol blend) to help lower fuel costs amid rising gas prices above $4 per gallon. The push comes as gasoline prices have surged due to Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, with an amendment to the Farm Bill under consideration by the House Rules Committee next week. President Trump has indicated support for the measure.

• E15 is typically banned during summer months due to smog concerns, but could save consumers up to 30 cents per gallon compared to conventional gasoline, according to biofuels groups
• The amendment is supported by the American Petroleum Institute, National Association of Convenience Stores, and National Corn Growers Association, but opposed by refining industry groups citing compliance costs
• U.S. retail gasoline prices averaged $4.06 per gallon as of Friday, driven higher by global supply disruptions from Iran's effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following U.S.-Israeli strikes

Jane Street, a leading market maker, generated a record $39.6 billion in net trading revenue in 2024, significantly outpacing rivals Citadel Securities and Hudson River Trading, which each posted approximately $12 billion. The firm's exceptional performance was driven by heightened market volatility and a surge in the value of its private startup stakes, including AI lab Anthropic.

• Jane Street's $39.6 billion trading revenue exceeded JPMorgan Chase's $35.8 billion and was more than triple the roughly $12 billion each posted by Citadel Securities and Hudson River Trading
• The firm's profits were boosted by increased valuations of private company investments, particularly its stake in AI lab Anthropic, through its capital markets unit
• Jane Street operates without outside capital, allowing it to take larger positions and hold them longer during volatile periods, while employing 3,500 people across global markets

At the Beijing Auto Fair, China's carmakers showcased autonomous driving technologies as they pivot toward AI-powered vehicles amid slowing domestic sales. With passenger vehicle sales down 17% in Q1 2025 after subsidy cuts, manufacturers are investing heavily in self-driving software and targeting overseas markets, particularly the UK, where Chinese brands are experiencing rapid growth.

• Huawei announced plans to invest up to 80 billion yuan (£8.7bn) over five years in autonomous driving software and computing power, reflecting industrywide focus on AI features to generate new revenue streams
• China's car exports surged over 60% in Q1 2025 as companies target markets like the UK, where Chery sold 13,500 vehicles between September-March and aims for 10 million global annual sales by 2030
• Geely plans to deploy thousands of driverless taxis globally next year through its Caocao ride-hailing service, competing with US firms like Waymo, though regulatory barriers remain a challenge in China

Ghana's mineworkers union is opposing a government policy requiring international mining companies to use local contractors, warning it will reduce wages and job security. The regulation, introduced in January 2025, mandates that surface mining be conducted by fully Ghanaian-owned firms by December 2026 or face sanctions. The union, representing 14,000 workers, threatens strikes and protests over concerns that local contractors pay significantly less than direct mine operators.

• Contractor workers earn approximately 50% less in basic pay than employees directly hired by mine operators, with complaints of unpaid pension and provident fund deductions
• Major mining companies affected include Newmont, Zijin, AngloGold Ashanti, and Gold Fields, who must shift blasting, loading, hauling and dumping operations to local firms by December 2026
• The Minerals Commission plans stricter oversight after mining costs dropped from $3 per ton to below $2.50, and will set pricing benchmarks to prevent wage undercutting by contractors

Three asset management firms (Bitwise, Roundhill, and Granite Shares) have filed applications with the SEC to launch ETFs that would track prediction markets on U.S. political elections, including the 2028 presidential race and 2026 midterm elections. These ETFs would allow investors to bet on election outcomes through their standard brokerage accounts, similar to how bitcoin ETFs opened crypto access to mainstream investors. The funds carry warnings that they could lose substantially all value if the predicted outcome doesn't occur.

• The proposed ETFs would track prediction market probabilities for specific political outcomes, such as which party wins the presidency, House, or Senate, with total loss possible on incorrect bets
• ETF issuers are modeling this on the success of bitcoin ETFs, which gave millions access to crypto without opening separate exchange accounts on platforms like Coinbase
• Prediction markets face ongoing legal disputes over jurisdiction, with the CFTC claiming regulatory authority while states and tribal governments contest sports-related contracts as gambling under their purview

The US Department of Justice has dropped its criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell regarding a Fed headquarters renovation that went over budget. The move clears an obstacle for the Senate confirmation of Kevin Warsh, President Trump's nominee to replace Powell, whose term ends May 15. The investigation had drawn bipartisan criticism and was characterized by Powell as political pressure to influence interest rate policy.

• Republican Senator Thom Tillis had blocked Warsh's nomination until the investigation ended, and his vote was needed to advance the nomination through the Senate Banking Committee
• Powell publicly stated in January that the investigation was a 'pretext' meant to pressure the Fed to lower interest rates rather than a genuine inquiry into the renovation project
• The Supreme Court still must rule on Trump's firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, meaning the conflict between Trump and the Federal Reserve is not fully resolved