General Market News

US stocks declined Monday with the Dow falling 344 points as rising oil prices and Treasury yields pressured equities. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.2% and the 30-year above 5.5%, both near multiyear highs, while markets now price a 70% probability of a Fed rate hike in October. Most tech stocks fell, though Nvidia gained after announcing a $150 billion share buyback authorization.

• Major indexes fell: Dow down 0.66% to 51,484.84, S&P 500 down 0.76% to 7,684.41, and Nasdaq down 0.91% to 26,822.09, driven by oil-related inflation concerns and rising borrowing costs
• Fed rate hike odds surged to 70.3% for October from 57.6% a week earlier and 17.7% a month earlier, with investors awaiting Wednesday's PCE inflation data and Friday's jobs report
• Tech stocks diverged: AMD fell 4%, Micron 2%, Amazon and Microsoft each 1%, while Nvidia rose on its $150 billion buyback announcement, bringing total authorization to $235 billion

Jefferies Financial reported increased third-quarter profit driven by a 17% jump in investment banking revenue to $1.33 billion and record equities trading performance. The results provide an early indicator of investment banking trends ahead of major U.S. bank earnings reports, as global dealmaking has surpassed $4 trillion in 2026 amid an easier regulatory environment.

• Investment banking revenue reached $1.33 billion with a record advisory quarter, while equity underwriting revenue surged 69%
• Capital markets revenue rose 11% to $802 million on record equities trading, though asset management revenue fell to $34 million from $84 million year-over-year
• Jefferies climbed to sixth place in global investment banking revenue rankings from eighth position in the prior year period

Tech executives including Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, Google CEO Sundar Pichai, and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang are set to meet with President Donald Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson on Tuesday. The meeting follows Trump's private dinner with Amodei and comes amid heightened debate over AI safety regulation, with Trump calling AI fears a 'hoax' while industry leaders advocate for cautious development.

• The Tuesday luncheon is part of an all-day White House event to announce a new federal information website, featuring panel discussions on AI, energy, and space
• Tensions exist between Trump's resistance to AI regulation and calls from leaders like Amodei for companies to 'pace the frontier' after a former Anthropic researcher accused AI labs of 'gambling with our lives'
• Multiple tech CEOs, including Apple's Tim Cook and SpaceX's Elon Musk, attended last week's U.S.-China state dinner, though Amodei was notably absent before his Sunday meeting with Trump

Oil prices retreated from session highs on September 28, 2026, after reports emerged that President Trump may ease sanctions on Iran in exchange for nuclear progress. Natural gas declined on milder weather forecasts reducing demand expectations, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including Houthi attacks and the closed Strait of Hormuz, continue to support oil markets despite the pullback.

• WTI oil pulled back from highs amid reports Trump is ready to ease Iran sanctions for nuclear concessions, though Iran maintains demands including reopening the Strait of Hormuz
• Natural gas fell below key levels as traders reacted to bearish weather forecasts signaling lower heating demand, with support at $3.00-$3.05 and potential downside to the 50-day MA at $2.91
• Brent oil settled near $105 after volatile trading, supported by ongoing Strait of Hormuz closure and declining global oil reserves, though Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline restart and renewed U.S.-Iran talks tempered gains

U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy and major airlines are urging Congress to approve an additional $30 billion for aviation infrastructure improvements, including air traffic control towers, software upgrades, and airport facilities. This request comes after Congress already approved $12.5 billion over five years in June 2025 for air traffic control reforms, but Duffy is now seeking significantly more funding.

• Congress previously approved $12.5 billion over five years in June 2025 for air traffic control reforms
• The new $30 billion request would fund air traffic control towers, digital and software upgrades, and airport facility improvements
• Secretary Duffy has escalated funding requests beyond the initial allocation approved last year

ASE Technology Holding (ASX) has earned a Momentum Style Score of B and a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy), indicating strong near-term potential based on positive price trends and earnings estimate revisions. The integrated circuit maker has demonstrated solid short-term price momentum with trading volume of 6.3 million shares on its 20-day average.

• ASX's consensus earnings estimate increased from $1.12 to $1.23 over the past 60 days, with 2 upward revisions and no downward revisions for the full year
• The stock shows positive short-term price activity, consistently outperforming the market with above-average trading volume of 6,310,264 shares
• Stocks with Zacks Rank #1 or #2 combined with Momentum Style Scores of A or B have historically outperformed the market over the following one-month period

President Trump will announce Mesabi Metallics' plan to invest approximately $15 billion to build a steel plant in Iowa, which would be the largest in U.S. history. The plant aims to begin production in 2030 and create an estimated 1,750 full-time jobs. The announcement comes weeks before November elections as Trump faces criticism over his economic policies and tariffs.

• The plant's first phase will produce 7.5 million tons of steel annually, eventually ramping up to 10 million tons per year, with construction supporting up to 6,000 jobs
• Mesabi Metallics will use iron ore from its Minnesota mine, a $2.5 billion project that recently began operations after nearly two decades of development including a 2016 bankruptcy filing
• Steel trade groups credited Trump's 25% steel tariffs with driving $47 billion in announced investments, though critics say tariffs have contributed to inflation hitting multi-year highs

US investors face a data-heavy week with September jobs report as the main event, alongside revised Q2 GDP figures, core PCE inflation data, and Federal Reserve speaker commentary. The economic calendar comes amid rising Treasury yields following the Fed's recent hawkish shift, with markets seeking clarity on the central bank's future rate path.

• September nonfarm payrolls expected to rise by just 60,000, down sharply from August's 162,000 gain, while unemployment is forecast to hold at 4.1% and average hourly earnings to increase 0.4%
• Core PCE inflation expected to rise 0.27% in August, with BEA's annual benchmark revisions potentially lowering July's year-over-year reading by two to three tenths
• Second-quarter GDP growth expected to be revised down to 1.5% from 2.1%, with revisions potentially changing the economic growth picture dating back to 2021

UK diesel prices reached a record high of 199.18 pence per litre on September 28, 2026, surpassing the previous peak from June 2022 during the Russia-Ukraine energy crisis. The increase is driven by the US-Israeli war on Iran, global refining capacity constraints, and potential US export restrictions, with filling an average family car now costing nearly £110, up £31 since the conflict began.

• Diesel prices have risen £31 per tank since the Iran conflict started, impacting motorists and increasing transport costs across industry and agriculture sectors
• The UK imports 55% of its diesel consumption, with nearly 40% of oil product imports being diesel and 31% coming from the US, making it vulnerable to proposed US export restrictions
• UK refining capacity has declined from 1.27 million barrels per day across six plants in 2024 to 1 million bpd at four refineries after two closures in 2025

The Dow Jones fell 336 points to 51,492 on Monday as rising oil prices (Brent at $106.79) and Treasury yields (10-year above 5.2%) pressured markets. Nvidia bucked the trend, rising 3% after announcing a record $150 billion buyback authorization, while MongoDB plunged 25.6% after its CEO abruptly departed for Meta.

• Oil surged over 2% after President Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent crude at $106.79 and WTI at $94.40 per barrel
• Nvidia's $150 billion buyback brings total remaining authorization to $235 billion through fiscal 2028, the largest in history, signaling strong cash generation
• MongoDB's CEO Chirantan Desai left immediately for a senior Meta role, triggering a 25.6% stock drop despite reaffirmed guidance and an interim CEO appointment

The U.S. and China agreed to cut tariffs on approximately $60 billion of imports ($30 billion each) during a summit between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The deal covers items like meat, seafood, toys, and textiles, representing a step toward easing trade tensions between the world's two largest economies. However, major issues including Chinese EVs, soybeans tariffs, and geopolitical matters remain largely unresolved.

• China will lower tariffs on U.S. meat, seafood, coal, timber and medical equipment, while the U.S. reduces tariffs on Chinese household products, fireworks, textiles, toys and sports equipment
• China separately committed to buying 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually through 2028, though soybeans remain subject to elevated 10% tariffs
• Agricultural stocks like Archer Daniels Midland and Bunge Global rose 1% and 0.5% respectively, while toy makers Mattel and Hasbro showed mixed movement with Hasbro up 2%

Crude oil prices rebounded on Monday after former President Trump rejected an Iranian proposal, reversing Friday's profit-taking decline. WTI crude is testing resistance near $105 while Brent maintains support above the psychologically significant $100 level, with analysts viewing any pullbacks as buying opportunities amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

• WTI crude rebounded from its 50-day exponential moving average at $89.74, targeting the $105 resistance level with support holding at $85
• Brent crude is consolidating above the $100 support level (a former resistance turned support) with potential upside toward $115
• Analysts maintain a bullish outlook, viewing price dips as value opportunities given persistent geopolitical risks and the likelihood of negative headlines impacting supply

The Trump administration has finalized new lower fuel economy standards, reversing a Biden-era push to require automakers to build more fuel-efficient vehicles. The government notice was published on Monday, marking a significant regulatory rollback in automotive emissions policy.

• The new standards reduce fuel efficiency requirements that the Biden administration had previously imposed on automakers
• This regulatory change represents a reversal of climate-focused policies aimed at reducing vehicle emissions
• The final rule was published in an official government notice on September 28

Institutional investors globally plan to increase private market allocations from 19% to 23% of assets within five years, according to Morningstar's survey of 504 asset owners. However, 63% cite liquidity concerns as the primary barrier to faster expansion, creating an opportunity for advisors to offer publicly traded private market ETFs that provide similar exposure with daily liquidity.

• North America faces the highest liquidity concerns, with 70% of asset owners citing it as a barrier compared to 65% in APAC and lower in Europe
• Private equity (43%), infrastructure (35%), and private credit (32%) are attracting the most new capital, while real estate sees net outflows with 24% cutting exposure versus 16% adding
• Europe leads with the most aggressive target allocation of 25% to private markets, up from 20% currently, ahead of APAC (23% from 19%) and North America (21% from 18%)

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has hired David Zervos, a veteran Wall Street economist and former Jefferies chief market strategist, as counselor to the Treasury Department. The position does not require Senate confirmation and comes as Treasury manages rising bond yields and amid staffing turnover at the department. Zervos brings expertise in Fed policy and financial markets during a period of significant economic policy challenges.

• Zervos joins after over 15 years at Jefferies and will serve in a broad advisory capacity, adding expertise as seven of Treasury's 16 Senate-confirmed appointees had departed as of mid-August
• The hire comes as the 10-year Treasury yield has risen significantly, with Zervos supporting Bessent's decision to increase buybacks of long-term Treasury debt to ease pressure on yields
• Zervos holds a doctorate in economics and has worked twice for the Federal Reserve, and has advocated for rate cuts and Fed balance sheet reductions under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh

Red Bull has filed a lawsuit against India's food regulator in Delhi High Court, challenging a ban on using the 'energy drink' label without prior warning. The Austrian beverage company claims the prohibition is affecting its current and planned investments in India.

• Red Bull filed the legal challenge in Delhi High Court on September 25, 2024
• The company alleges India's food regulator imposed the 'energy drink' descriptor ban without issuing any warning notice
• Red Bull states the regulatory action is impacting both existing operations and future investment plans in the Indian market

US stock futures tumbled on Monday, with Dow futures down 305 points and Nasdaq futures falling nearly 1%, as oil prices surged above $107 per barrel following President Trump's rejection of Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The spike in oil prices has revived inflation concerns and pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 5.2%, its highest level since 2007, creating valuation pressure on technology stocks ahead of key inflation and jobs data.

• Brent crude jumped above $107 and WTI climbed above $94 due to geopolitical tensions after Trump rejected Iran's Strait of Hormuz reopening proposal, with further negotiations expected this week
• The 10-year Treasury yield held at 5.2% and the 30-year at 5.51%, creating a valuation headwind for growth stocks as higher discount rates pressure long-duration equities
• Investors await Wednesday's PCE inflation report (July core PCE was 3.3% year-over-year) and Friday's September jobs data, which could determine whether the Fed continues tightening after September's rate increase

QatarEnergy has suspended liquefied natural gas deliveries to Italian utility Edison until early December due to disruptions from the US-Iran conflict, which has severely impacted Qatar's LNG exports since April. Edison has already missed 35 cargo shipments and is sourcing replacement gas primarily from US suppliers as Europe approaches winter heating season.

• Qatar's LNG exports have collapsed to just 18 cargoes through August 2026, down from 509 in the same period in 2025, making it one of the conflict's biggest economic casualties
• Edison holds a long-term contract for 6.4 billion cubic meters annually from Qatar, representing approximately 10% of Italy's total gas consumption
• Edison has replaced 23 of the 35 missed cargoes by turning mainly to US suppliers, as European countries rush to fill gas storage ahead of the thermal winter season

Bond markets face a critical week as traders navigate month-end and quarter-end rebalancing on Wednesday, followed by the September US employment report on Friday. Rising crude oil prices add pressure amid unresolved tensions over Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Markets are pricing in a two-thirds chance of another Fed rate hike next month, making upcoming Fed speaker comments highly significant.

• September payrolls are forecast at 84,000 jobs added, well above the breakeven rate needed to maintain the 4.1% unemployment rate
• Oil prices are rising after President Trump rejected Iranian proposals to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with little prospect of resolution before November midterm elections
• All voting Fed policymakers have so far supported the script that more tightening is likely needed following this month's unanimous rate decision

Indian refiners are facing tighter Russian oil supplies in October and November due to reduced Russian exports and increased competition from China, forcing India to purchase more expensive crude alternatives from the Middle East and West Africa. Russian oil arrivals to India are expected to fall to around 1.75 million barrels per day in September, the lowest since April, down 16.5% from July levels.

• China is outbidding Indian refiners by booking cargoes in advance and paying firmer prices, while also benefiting from cheaper, more secure Arctic Northern Sea Route shipping versus India's riskier Red Sea route
• Russian export capacity has contracted significantly, with Black Sea port Novorossiysk shipments falling roughly 50% due to repeated drone attack disruptions
• Indian refiners are replacing Russian Urals crude with pricier alternatives including UAE Murban, Iraqi Basrah, and Angolan cargoes for the remainder of 2024