Longshots Losing 98% of Time Dominate Kalshi, Polymarket Trading

• Prediction markets (Kalshi, Polymarket) are experiencing rapid growth, fueled by longshot bets.
• Bettors on these platforms lose 98% of the time on longshots, with aggregate losses of 15% on Kalshi and 27% on Polymarket since early 2025.
• The appeal of longshot bets stems from entertainment, a 'dopamine rush,' and low contract prices (e.g., 3-cent contracts), despite the high likelihood of losing.
• Addiction experts warn that longshot bets are particularly problematic for individuals with gambling issues, as they encourage chasing losses and overpaying for unlikely outcomes.
• These platforms are increasingly sports and crypto-focused, attracting a young, predominantly male audience who may prioritize gamified experiences over traditional investment principles.

The discussion highlights a boom in prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, driven by retail bettors placing high-risk 'longshot' wagers. Despite losing 98% of the time, these bets are popular due to their entertainment value and low cost, raising concerns about potential gambling problems and mispriced contracts.