Trump says he is not keen on a deal with Iran as U.S. reportedly prepares for 'massive bombing'

• The U.S. is reportedly considering 'massive bombing' of Iranian energy, infrastructure, and nuclear targets, with Trump stating Iran is 'willing to offer us anything to stop'
• Trump's approval ratings have dropped to record lows due to soaring gasoline and diesel prices, potentially making military action before midterms politically strategic
• Middle East crude exports have recovered to near pre-war levels at 18.5 million barrels per day, yet oil prices remain elevated despite operational normalization

Summary: Trump Signals Rejection of Iran Deal Amid Military Strike Preparations

Key Developments:

President Donald Trump stated Wednesday he no longer seeks a diplomatic deal with Iran, despite ongoing negotiations led by Special Envoy Steve Witkoff. This follows reports that the U.S. military is preparing for potential large-scale strikes against Iranian targets, possibly before upcoming midterm elections.

Military Planning:

According to NBC News, Trump and his national security team have discussed resuming major military operations in coming weeks. Axios reports potential targets could include Iranian energy infrastructure, other strategic facilities, and nuclear sites through "massive bombing" campaigns. The timing suggests possible electoral motivations, as military action could influence midterm outcomes.

Political Context:

Trump's approval ratings have fallen to record lows amid public concerns over elevated living costs, particularly soaring gasoline and diesel prices. Iranian officials have rejected Trump's characterization of the negotiations, with Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeli Baghaei citing "contradictory positions and mixed messaging from U.S. officials."

Market Implications:

Crude oil prices remain elevated despite Middle East export volumes recovering to near pre-conflict levels of 18.5 million barrels per day (Mbd), according to Kpler data. Combined crude exports from the Gulf (excluding Iran), Saudi Arabia, and UAE have normalized.

Kpler analyst Matt Wright forecasts "slower, uneven normalisation" under continued conflict conditions, with traffic recovering through operational adaptation rather than awaiting diplomatic resolution. The energy sector faces continued volatility as geopolitical tensions escalate, with potential supply disruptions if military strikes target Iranian energy infrastructure.

Bottom Line: Heightened military tensions could significantly impact oil markets and broader geopolitical stability ahead of U.S. midterm elections.