BofA Says Bonds May Outperform Stocks in Next Decade

Bloomberg Markets and Finance | October 07, 2026 at 01:45 PM UTC
Bearish 90% Confidence
Watch on YouTube

Key Points

  • A lack of market breadth is not inherently alarming, but current sentiment is 'very bullish' with analysts forecasting 'all-time high' earnings growth for the S&P 500 over the next five years.
  • Bonds are becoming 'interesting again'; the risk-return for a 10-year Treasury (over 5%) suggests they might outperform S&P 500 returns over the next decade.
  • Concerns exist about margin pressure across sectors and bottlenecks in AI infrastructure, making a 'frictionless environment' unlikely and increasing the potential for disappointment.

AI Summary

Savita Subramanian of Bank of America discusses market breadth and warns that while the market isn't a tech bubble, overly bullish sentiment and high earnings growth expectations for the S&P 500 could lead to disappointment. She suggests that bonds, with 10-year Treasuries yielding over 5%, may offer better risk-adjusted returns than equities over the next decade due to potential margin pressure and AI infrastructure bottlenecks.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bearish 90%
Consensus Bearish 90%