Gulf oil flows average 81% of pre-war rate in September, data shows

• Combined Gulf flows (excluding Iran) reached 19.2 million bpd in September versus 23.6 million bpd pre-war, with crude recovering to 91% of prior levels while refined fuel exports remain at just 60%
• Saudi Arabia's exports jumped 4.2 million bpd from August to 6.6 million bpd in September, offsetting declines from Kuwait, Qatar, and the total loss of Iranian exports
• Reduced Middle Eastern fuel exports have intensified global diesel and jet fuel shortages, pushing prices to record or near-record levels in multiple markets

Market Summary: Gulf Oil Flows Recovery

Key Developments:

Gulf oil flows (excluding Iran) reached 81% of pre-war levels in September, according to Vortexa and Kpler data. Total exports from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, Iraq, and the UAE averaged 19.2 million barrels per day (bpd), compared to pre-war levels of 23.6 million bpd before the Iran war outbreak on February 28.

Saudi Arabia Drives Recovery:

Saudi shipments surged by approximately 4.2 million bpd from August to 6.6 million bpd in September, despite drone attacks forcing the shutdown of the East-West Pipeline and affecting Yanbu oil port loadings. This rebound more than offset declines from other Gulf producers.

Iranian Blockade Impact:

Iranian exports fell to zero in September due to a US blockade, marking a significant supply disruption. Other Gulf producers have adapted by using "dark transits"—disabling tanker tracking systems to evade detection.

Product vs. Crude Disparity:

Crude and condensate flows recovered to 91% of pre-war levels (16.3 million bpd), while refined fuel exports, including LPG, remain at only 60% of pre-war levels (7.3 million bpd). This gap has exacerbated global diesel and jet fuel shortages, contributing to record or near-record prices in several markets.

Market Implications:

The Middle East's critical role as a fuel supplier makes these disruptions particularly significant for global consumers. Analysts warn that daily flows remain considerably more volatile than pre-war levels, raising questions about sustainability of the recovery.