There's 'excessive pessimism' in the markets, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee

CNBC Television | October 05, 2026 at 11:46 AM UTC
Bullish 90% Confidence
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Key Points

  • Softer jobs report and upcoming inflation data suggest easing inflationary pressures, allowing the Fed to 'walk back from its hawkishness'.
  • Bond yields are expected to normalize, with the 10-year potentially falling below 5% in the next six months, which would be positive for 'risk on' assets.
  • Earnings growth is accelerating (Q3 possibly up 30%), and EPS revisions for 2027 are up over 20%, making the S&P 500's valuation 'cheaper' despite its year-to-date gains.
  • Tech stocks and crypto performing well indicate anticipation of easier financial conditions, and midterms are viewed as a 'risk-on signal' for markets, potentially benefiting AI stocks and crypto.

AI Summary

Fundstrat's Tom Lee maintains a bullish outlook, expecting inflation to ease and the Fed to become less hawkish. He anticipates bond yields to normalize below 5% and the S&P 500 to see further gains by year-end, driven by accelerating earnings and a market that has become 'cheaper' despite recent rallies. Midterm elections are seen as a 'clearing event' for a risk-on rally.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bullish 90%
Consensus Bullish 90%