OPEC+ Agrees in Principle to Hold November Oil Output Targets Steady, Sources Say

• OPEC+ core members pumped 25 million barrels per day in August, roughly 5 million bpd below prewar levels from February despite recent increases
• The group still maintains about 2 million bpd in output cuts across most members, but planned production increases have largely remained 'on paper' due to Middle East conflict disruptions
• The delayed capacity review creates uncertainty around how OPEC+ will distribute future production increases before 2027, as war conditions make estimating production potential difficult

OPEC+ to Maintain November Oil Production Targets Amid Middle East Disruptions

OPEC+ has agreed in principle to keep oil production targets unchanged for November ahead of Sunday's meeting, according to three sources close to the matter. The decision comes as Gulf producers continue operating significantly below their quotas due to ongoing Middle East conflict disruptions.

Key Production Figures:

• Gulf OPEC+ members currently exporting at 60-80% of normal levels
• Seven core OPEC+ members produced 25 million barrels per day in August, up 630,000 bpd from July
• Current production remains approximately 5 million bpd below pre-war February levels
• OPEC+ maintains about 2 million bpd in production cuts across most members

Market Context:

The group has been raising output targets throughout 2026 following years of production cuts, but most planned increases have remained theoretical due to the Iran war's impact on regional exports. The conflict has caused persistent export disruptions and created uncertainty around future production capacity estimates.

Critical Delay:

OPEC+ has postponed its crucial capacity review, which is necessary to determine members' 2027 production quotas. The delay stems from uncertainty regarding future production potential in the conflict-affected region.

Meeting Details:

The seven core OPEC+ members—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman—will meet at 1100 GMT Sunday. A separate Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) will also convene to review market conditions, though this group does not make policy decisions.

Implications:

The decision to hold targets steady reflects OPEC+'s cautious approach amid geopolitical instability and the practical reality that members cannot meet higher quotas given current export constraints.