Dow rises 260 points as weak jobs data lifts US stocks

• September payrolls added just 29,000 jobs, significantly missing the 84,000 consensus estimate, while the unemployment rate increased to 4.2% from 4.1%
• Market probability of the Fed holding rates steady in October rose to 77%, with rate hike expectations falling from 64.2% a week earlier to 22.7%
• Technology stocks led gains with Nasdaq rising 1.19% and briefly hitting an all-time high, driven by rallies in Nvidia, AMD, and other megacap tech names, though the Dow and S&P 500 still posted weekly declines

Market Summary: Weak Jobs Data Lifts US Equities

Market Performance:

US stocks rallied on Friday following disappointing September employment data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 260 points (+0.51%), the S&P 500 gained 0.76%, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.19%. The Nasdaq briefly touched an all-time high before pulling back as Treasury yields rebounded.

Key Economic Data:

September jobs report showed only 29,000 positions added, significantly below the 84,000 consensus estimate. The unemployment rate increased to 4.2% from 4.1%, with prior months' payroll figures revised lower, signaling weakening labor market conditions.

Federal Reserve Implications:

Weak employment data reduced October rate hike expectations. CME FedWatch data indicates a 77% probability the Fed will hold rates steady at its October meeting, up from 76% previously. Expectations for a 25-basis-point hike dropped to 22.7% from 64.2% one week earlier.

Sector Performance:

Technology led market gains, with Nvidia and AMD rallying strongly. CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks reached record levels. Consumer discretionary was the best-performing S&P sector, supported by Tesla gains. Rate-sensitive sectors also advanced, with real estate gaining 1% and the Russell 2000 rising 1%.

Weekly Results:

Despite Friday's rally, the Dow fell 1.3% for the week and the S&P 500 declined 0.2%. The Nasdaq gained 0.5%, marking its third consecutive weekly advance. Both the Dow and S&P 500 recorded their fourth weekly decline in five weeks.

Notable Movers:

Nike and data storage stocks (Western Digital, Seagate) were among the weakest performers following company-specific news and Toshiba's announced capacity expansion plans for AI data center hard drives.