Nasdaq 100 Forecast: 35,000 in View as Weak Jobs Ease Fed Hike Bets

• US nonfarm payrolls added only 29,000 jobs in September versus 90,000 expected, with prior months revised down by 60,000; unemployment rose to 4.2% while wage growth slowed to 3.0% annually, reducing October rate hike probability from 64.2% to 22.1%
• Trump's proposed 25% semiconductor tariffs could add costs equivalent to 15.6% of data center construction expenses and impose a $90 billion annual economic burden, potentially slowing AI infrastructure investment that supports tech earnings
• Technical analysis shows an inverted head-and-shoulders breakout above 30,600 targets 35,000, with key support at 30,150; however, the 10-year Treasury yield remains elevated at 5.28%, pressuring valuations despite reduced Fed hike expectations

Summary: Nasdaq 100 Targets 35,000 on Weak Jobs Data

Key Market Developments

The Nasdaq 100 closed at 30,827 on Friday, gaining over 0.50% for the week as weaker employment data reduced Federal Reserve rate hike expectations. The probability of an October rate hike dropped sharply to 22.1% from 64.2%.

Jobs Data Highlights

September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, significantly missing the 90,000 forecast. July and August figures were revised downward by a combined 60,000 jobs. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% from 4.1%, while average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% monthly and 3.0% annually, indicating cooling wage growth.

Tariff Concerns

Trump's proposed 25% semiconductor tariffs under Section 232 threaten AI infrastructure investment. Industry analysis suggests tariffs on data centers could impose costs equivalent to 15.6% of construction expenses, with broader economic impact estimated at $90 billion annually. This could pressure cloud providers and chipmakers to reconsider expansion budgets.

Inflation and Treasury Yields

August PCE inflation showed headline prices up 3.4% annually and core prices up 3.0%, both above Fed targets. Treasury yields remain elevated with the 10-year near 5.28% and 2-year at 4.83%, pressuring technology valuations despite reduced hike expectations.

Technical Outlook

The index broke above the 30,600 neckline of an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern, targeting 35,000. Immediate support stands at 30,150, with deeper support at 29,700 and the 200-day SMA around 27,600. The bullish structure depends on sustained AI spending, strong earnings, and declining yields.