Nasdaq Index: Record High as Weak Payrolls Cut Rate-Hike Bets and Yields Fall

• September payrolls missed estimates badly at 29,000 new jobs versus 90,000 expected, with prior months revised lower and unemployment ticking up, reducing October rate hike probability from 26% to near 20%
• The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged over 3% with Nvidia hitting another record high, leading a broad rally where 10 of 11 S&P 500 sectors advanced
• Two-year Treasury yields fell for a second session while oil prices dropped below $100/barrel on potential European reserve releases, easing inflation pressures and supporting rate-sensitive stocks

Market Summary: Nasdaq Hits Record High on Weak Jobs Data

Key Developments

The Nasdaq Composite Index reached a record high of 27,353.68 on October 2, 2026, closing at 27,182.09, up 310.50 points (+1.16%). The rally was driven by weaker-than-expected employment data that reduced expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes.

Employment Data

September Non-Farm Payrolls rose by only 29,000, significantly below the 90,000 estimate. Prior two months' figures were also revised downward, and unemployment ticked higher. This data reduced the probability of an October rate hike from 26% to approximately 20%.

Market Response

The two-year Treasury yield fell for a second consecutive session following the report. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged over 3%, with Nvidia reaching another intraday record. Technology and semiconductor stocks led the rally, with 10 of 11 S&P 500 sectors posting gains. Market breadth was strong, with advancers outnumbering decliners 3-to-1 on the NYSE and 2.5-to-1 on the Nasdaq.

Bitcoin rose more than 3%, with related stocks like Coinbase and Strategy advancing. Volatility declined to a one-week low near 15.67.

Commodity Movements

Brent crude fell below $100 per barrel, and WTI crude oil futures declined following reports of potential European reserve releases, easing inflation concerns.

Market Outlook

Technical analysis indicates bullish trends across major indices, with the Nasdaq maintaining upward momentum and support at the 50-day moving average (26,305.85). The immediate focus shifts to whether declining yields can sustain momentum beyond the initial payrolls reaction.