September LNG shipments through Hormuz hit highest since start of US-Iran war

• September saw 19-21 LNG cargoes exit Hormuz (13 from Qatar, 6-8 from UAE), up from 15 in June when the US-Iran war began, representing a recovery to approximately 25% of pre-war transit levels
• Multiple QatarEnergy vessels conducted 'dark transits' by switching off AIS transponders while passing through the strait, reappearing days later off India's west coast to avoid detection
• Key winter uncertainty centers on whether Iran will escalate militarily if higher exports are seen as diminishing its leverage over the strait, which carried one-fifth of global crude oil and LNG supplies before the war

Summary

Key Development:

LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz reached their highest level in September since the US-Iran war began on February 28, 2026. According to S&P Global Energy, 19 LNG cargoes transited the strait (13 from Qatar, 6 from UAE), while Kpler data reported 21 cargoes, compared to just 15 in June.

Market Implications:

The increased activity represents a recovery to approximately 25% of pre-war transit levels if current momentum continues into October. However, this remains well below normal operations, as the Strait of Hormuz previously carried roughly one-fifth of global crude oil and LNG supplies before the conflict.

Security Concerns:

Multiple vessels are conducting "dark transits" by switching off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders to avoid detection. Three QatarEnergy-linked vessels—Al Kharaitiyat, Al Gharrafa, and Milaha Qatar—recently disappeared from tracking data while in the strait (September 17-24) before reappearing off India's west coast around September 30.

Winter Uncertainties:

Analysts highlight critical concerns about sustaining LNG transit levels through winter, dependent on two key factors: whether Iran escalates military action in response to higher exports (viewing it as lost leverage), and whether US naval convoy escorts can continue despite high costs.

Companies Mentioned:

QatarEnergy, Pronav Ship Management (Germany)

Critical Takeaway:

While September's increase signals improving transit conditions, persistent security risks, "dark transits," and potential Iranian escalation create significant uncertainty for winter LNG supply chains through this strategic chokepoint.