Greer says U.S.-India trade deal not imminent after Modi-Trump call

• India currently faces 18% U.S. tariffs (reduced from 50% in February) for purchasing Russian oil, with threats of tariffs reaching 100% if purchases continue
• Key sticking points include Washington's concern that India's Russian oil purchases fund the Ukraine war, while New Delhi seeks to protect its agricultural sector and maintain preferential tariff advantages
• Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal expressed optimism about 'early conclusion' of a bilateral agreement, while Greer emphasized remaining issues, highlighting different perspectives on negotiation progress

Summary

Key Development: U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer indicated Thursday that a trade deal with India is not "imminent," despite ongoing negotiations. His comments followed a phone call between President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which both sides described as "productive" and "constructive."

Negotiation Status: While Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal expressed optimism about an "early conclusion of a mutually beneficial interim agreement," Greer emphasized that significant sticking points remain. Stanford's Ronak D. Desai noted that Goyal is highlighting resolved issues while Greer focuses on remaining obstacles—typically the hardest to resolve in any trade deal.

Major Points of Friction:

• Russian Oil Purchases: India's continued buying of Russian oil remains a critical issue for Washington, which views it as funding the Ukraine war. The U.S. has threatened tariffs up to 100% on India for these purchases.
• Tariff History: The U.S. imposed 25% punitive tariffs on India in August for Russian oil purchases, raising total duties to 50%, before reducing them to 18% in February.
• Indian Priorities: New Delhi seeks to protect its politically sensitive agricultural sector and maintain preferential tariffs for competitive advantage.

Market Context: The Iran war has disrupted India's energy supplies, increasing reliance on Russian oil. India is also seeking preferential market access to make its exports to the U.S. more competitive. According to experts, both nations are currently unable to accommodate each other's demands, with Teneo's Arpit Chaturvedi suggesting they may be "reaching the limits of trade complementarities."