The September jobs report will be released Friday. Here's what to expect

• Payroll growth has averaged 80,000 monthly in 2026 but remains volatile, ranging from a loss of 156,000 jobs in February to gains of 214,000 in March
• Average hourly earnings growth is expected at 3.1% year-over-year in September, down from around 4% earlier in the year, with Fed officials noting wages are not driving inflation
• Markets have sharply reduced odds of a Fed rate hike at the Oct. 27-28 meeting following comments from officials like NY Fed President Williams that 'there is no need for urgency' on further rate increases

Summary: September Jobs Report Preview

Key Data Expected:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release September nonfarm payrolls on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Wall Street consensus forecasts job growth of 84,000 with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%.

Labor Market Context:

The 2026 labor market has shown volatility, with monthly payroll growth averaging 80,000—ranging from a loss of 156,000 jobs in February to gains of 214,000 in March. Wage growth has moderated, with average hourly earnings expected to rise 3.1% year-over-year in September, down from approximately 4% at year-start.

Federal Reserve Implications:

Fed officials, including Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams, emphasize labor market stability while focusing attention on inflation concerns. Williams stated "there is no need for urgency" regarding additional rate hikes, following September's rate adjustment. Market expectations for an October 27-28 rate hike have declined sharply, with December now seen as more likely.

Mixed Signals:

Despite stable conditions, worker confidence hit record lows in September according to Glassdoor, marking the third time this year. Workers cite concerns about job security, economic uncertainty, inflation, and artificial intelligence impacts. However, positive indicators include low layoffs—initial unemployment claims fell to 197,000 last week, and September layoffs dropped 18% from August and 20% year-over-year per Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Market Assessment:

Economists describe the labor market as "stable" with the 4.1% unemployment rate indicating near full employment. Job openings are declining and hiring remains challenging, but historically low layoff rates support the Fed's measured approach to monetary policy.