Nasdaq futures surge 200 points: 5 things to know before Wall Street opens

• Micron beat estimates with revenue guidance of $61.5 billion (vs $57 billion expected) and customer commitments rising to $32 billion from $22 billion in June, signaling continued AI capex strength
• The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.34% and the 30-year reached 5.68%, levels not seen since 2002, reflecting concerns beyond Fed policy including inflation, heavy government borrowing, and AI financing needs
• October Fed rate hike odds dropped to 38% from 70% a week earlier following softer PCE inflation data, with Goldman Sachs now forecasting the next increase in December

Market Summary

Market Overview:

U.S. stock futures showed mixed performance Thursday, with Nasdaq 100 futures surging 202 points (+0.6%), while Dow futures gained only 0.07% and S&P 500 futures remained flat. The divergence reflects sector-specific strength in technology despite rising Treasury yields pushing the Dow near three-month lows.

Key Drivers:

Treasury yields continue climbing, with the 10-year reaching 5.34% and the 30-year touching 5.68%—levels unseen since 2002. The selloff reflects investor concerns beyond Fed policy, including inflation compensation demands, heavy government borrowing, and AI investment financing needs.

Micron's Strong Results:

Micron Technologies exceeded estimates with adjusted earnings of $33.42 per share and guided Q4 revenue to $61.5 billion versus $57 billion expected. Critically, long-term customer commitments jumped to $32 billion from $22 billion in June, signaling sustained AI infrastructure spending. The report lifted semiconductor stocks including Nvidia, AMD, Lam Research, and Applied Materials.

Tech Sector Strength:

Alphabet gained over 2% following the unveiling of Gemini 4 Argon, its new flagship AI model targeting enterprise and cybersecurity applications.

Fed Policy Outlook:

October rate hike probability dropped to 38% from 50% following softer PCE inflation data. Goldman Sachs shifted its next rate increase forecast to December. Four Fed officials are scheduled to speak Thursday.

Upcoming Catalysts:

Weekly jobless claims and September ISM manufacturing index (previous: 54.6) due Thursday could further influence bond yields and rate expectations. Rising oil prices add inflation concerns.